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Today is early in the season has nothing to do with previous Winters. I definitely see some opportunities whether they work out or not I don’t know obviously.

Curious what the actual temp profile was when the precip moved in to see how where the warm layer was and how much we actually missed by.

3"+ so far. Looks like deep winter out there. Excellent start to Winter.

In the last few frames, the CC line appears to be dropping east towards I-81. Maybe our far NW crew flips back to IP/SN?

I think any mix is really limited. Seems more like a rain or snow deal.

Nope. Ensembles are rather tepid for anything to. I’ll believe it when I see it with regards to snow. Maybe that’s childish, but whatever. We’ve found every way to fail over the last couple years and today’s event is an extension of that. Hope I’m wrong, but I’d bet most are waiting until around or after the holidays for snow.

commenced at MMU .

1st coating of the year.

Not enough to snow blow unfortunately and with temps at 32 ….

5-7 here seems likely. I do think sleet will be a bit of a factor as the warm tinge erodes its way in.

You can see how quickly it’s warming as the change over is near Medway on CC.

Snowing in Poughkeepsie area

I’ll sell . The best case is a dusting . Tonight is only real Shot if there’s any reach around

It’s warming quickly just off the deck

Steady light snow in Bethlehem Twp. Watching that mixed precipitation/rain line to my south. Figuring we should transition within an hour or so.

I just intimated similarly.. It's not clear to me how the models punch such warm BL air so far inland as they are, given to the fact that as the low moves (quickly so ..which should even help conserve cold) by to the S, the BL winds will back around - not continue a WAA assault. It just looks to me like the set of environmental variables that are responsible for managing the BL effects were like inadvertently not turned on or set into winter seasonal mode in the models or something. Ha ha. That's sci fi for fun.

Picking up nicely now. Let's go.

Nope. We’ve learned that lesson.

Light snow here…should transition to rain fairly quickly. Maybe the hills in northern rockland see some slush before the rain.

I seen in the NWS forecast there's no mention of any precip. thru next Monday. Wonder if that will change?

Edit: Seems the HRRR and RAP had been showing that......

*this* close in your yard, dangit. Kinda like what others have mentioned tho, it's nice to see this having some precip and not just a shredded out virga mess. Temps here have leveled off at around 30.6 for the last hour or so. Huge dendrites now accumulating rapidly - probably 3/4 inch in the last half hour. What's nice is not a breath of wind.

Man if this event were even a week later, we'd probably have 3" - 5" for most folks west of the bay. Just a degree or three off from greatness.

90% of the time the change happens earlier than expected in all areas..... It sucks, but true.

oops went back to snow