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Fall scenery has been epic down here this year. Ready for snow now lol

October total 2.53". 37.10" for 2025 so far. Lowest temp 35. Highest 79

We had some fatties in the early afternoon and some flurries tonight. Gotta go up towards the cog base station for any accumulation though

I asked ChatGPT to pull up a list of 12+" snowstorms at ANY of the airports (DCA, BWI, IAD, RIC) from 1970 to now. Apparently there was a 1 in 4.3 chance that you'd see a 12"er in a given season during then. So we are due, but apparently it's not astronomically rare—right now we're 1.66 standard deviations away from the mean, meaning there's about a 5-10% chance of a drought this long happening. For example, look at 1983-93 or 1993-2003.

That’s the plan tomorrow. blow ‘‘em into a few piles, suck ‘‘em up with the cyclone rake, then mow the rest of the lawn with the cyclone rake in tow. 2 2 acre yards should be done in <6 hours if all goes well. maybe find Time for a couple cold beers

Just thank your lucky stars you're neurotypical

I really need to move up that way at some point ffs... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Yeah, unfortunately, it seems everything operationally is verifying on the ground. I am hopeful many lives were saved by residents heeding the advanced warnings. They had several days to plan. It will still be a miracle if the death count doesn't rise, however, despite the more densely populated areas in eastern Jamaica avoiding the eyewall. As you can see in the imagery, there are an overwhelming number of structures deroofed, walls down, or completely destroyed. Any major flooding reports from this?

Happy Models Initiate at the Right Time of Day Eve! A day when many re-up their WxBell subscriptions… though I may way til a real threat now that lots of Euro stuff is free.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ CSU TC-RAMS matches NOAA's.. The other site seems off as 34.7 is corrrect.

Yeah, unfortunately, it seems everything operationally is verifying on the ground. I am hopeful many lives were saved by residents heeding the advanced warnings. They had several days to plan. It will still be a miracle if the death count doesn't rise, however, despite the more densely populated areas in eastern Jamaica avoiding the eyewall. As you can see in the imagery, there are an overwhelming number of structures deroofed, walls down, or completely destroyed.

Love this, the guy with the bike. That's the most Bolton Valley thing ever.

For sure the Montego Bay damage consistent with cat3 winds

I expected the imagery to be sombering for the southern coast. But the amount of destruction on Jamaica's NW coast, Montego Bay, etc., is pretty horrible. Clearly, Melissa's eyewall remained intense all the way across the island.

The url on extwitter only showed the damage around those coordinates. Here's the main site you can use to zoom through what has been mapped so far. https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/melissa/index.html

Looking less snoozy up here and globals even throwing out random snow risks during this period. N stream so nothing heavy but at least it will look and feel more the season.

BWI: 14.0 DCA: 9.5 IAD: 17.0 RIC: 10.0 SBY: 9.5

Yep. Lower than forecasted as usual.

Yeah, all the lr(long range) Model's have Enso factored in very high. You can see La nina footprint.

Latest EPS has a dry first half of November

Perfectly fine with that. Will be interesting to see a few things: 1.) How much punch these zonal flow setups have this month. Do we stay relatively close to normal, or are we torching into the upper 70s? 2.) When the pattern does flip back, is it delayed? Another can kick winter? Will there be a decent storm, etc.?

Why didn’t you wait a day?

Mid December still looks chilly on the latest Euro weeklies. Whether it is a week of chill or it has some staying power TBD. Precip. looks normal during this timeframe as well.

He wasn't playing and when he did he sucked. Didn't work out. Good riddance. Hopefully a prelude to some bigger moves- need help in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Getting some flurries at home. First flakes. Had some graupel this afternoon but these are actual snowflakes.