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24. Coldest of the season.

We’ve had ideal, and got nothing, we’ll take good enough and role the dice with that.

Someone start a thread!

It looks to me like the 6z GFS came south a bit?

Central Park has recorded its first freeze of the 2025-2026 season. The 1991-2020 normal first date is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

All SEMATT saddling up for the 6z Euro/EPS run.

Overall trend I have seen is lowering/flattening of heights over the northeast. Vorticity itself looks to be more consolidated and has dug further south. Nice look on the overnight for interior SNE and up into CNE.

21 this morning, this is the coldest so far this season here.

Nice. I'm not judging, just bustin balls. I put some lights outside on Labor Day Weekend as it's nice to sit out there in the evening with a cocktail under some lights. One of our trees goes up Columbus Weekend and gets decorated for fall/Thanksgiving. That tree will obviously now get decorated for Christmas and then for Saint Patrick's Day, after which it will get put away. It's the dark time of the year so I like to bring it some light.

Beer?

Yeah 6z euro is meager. 6z gfs is congrats you.

6z Euro and Eps

6z eps way SE too. AI ens are still good for the interior. What a mess.

Looks like a split decision showing up for the first week of December. Long range models shifted colder with the trough into the East instead of the ridge from previous runs. But the large storm on the 2nd and 3rd shifted warmer with a further north track and stronger WAR. Main issue with the storm is the very fast flow and lack of blocking allowed the high over New England to move off the coast. So the further north storm and slightly stronger WAR on the day of the storm pushed the rain to snow gradient just to the north and west of NYC. Since the colder start to December is a new pattern not showing up until day 6-10, it’s uncertain how the current day 11-15 and beyond will actually play out. If you look back on our recent Decembers, they have a tendency to start out cold from the 1st through 15th. Then we get the warm up every year since 2011 between the 17th and 25th. So it will be interesting to see how things actually play out vs what the models are currently showing. We would want to eventually see a colder storm for our area while we still have the cold. This is very important during La Nina’s since we need to get over 4” of snow in December to match the above vs below seasonal snowfall that I outlined a few days back in this thread. So hopefully we can connect with at least one storm next few weeks while the colder start is still nearby. New early December pattern colder than old runs Old run too warm for early December New run warmer storm further north on the 2nd and 3rd Old run storm track colder to the south and more suppressed

Im a little concerned about this dry slot in northern MO. All that heavy precip by STL seems like it may skirt south of me. Hrrr suggests things will fill in later. We shall see

Nice base, avoiding screwholes so far

My tree has been up since November 1. I have been done decorating since then. I wanted to do it earlier this year because wife is 30 weeks pregnant and we have alot coming up.

That’s cute but you forgot the 6z gfs

And we thought all your decorations went up on November 1st each year

Dusting

City should see a mix but just inland has a chance of accumulating snow Latest euro has came south and weaker.

I like this part of CTP’s discussion! At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather will continue into the first week of December as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should keep cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around the base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on Monday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward extent of any mix/rain scenarios. The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%) across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast PA. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ continue to outline probabilities <30% with a higher likelihood in northeast PA up through coastal New England. If confidence increases in higher amounts, Watches may be needed in the next 24-48 hours. At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region. Continue to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

This thread headline looks good based on casual look at info through 06z/29. NYC CP might see their first measurable snow-sleet. Back later today. Ensemble WSSI-P graphic -06z/29, and ensemble prob for 3+" of snow (legend color code probs) hopefully speak for themselves.

CTP’s forecast discussion is very detailed this morning for the Tuesday potential.