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kind of a snow-hole south of Chicago at Pontiac. Otherwise, about 7.8" out by Cyclone77 in Erie

I'm not doom and gloom...I went 19-29" for you on the season. I'm just not as optimistic about December as the consensus for your area.

Especially at this juncture. It's still early for our Hood. So an advisory event now is perfectly okay with me. Looks like we have another shot of something next Saturday as well

Not down here

There's more going on than whether it's amped or flat. There's the location and amplitude of the shortwave, location of vorticity advection, the tilt of the trof, and its evolution over time. Some runs over the past few days have been "amped" with a sharp shortwave and associated vortmax taking a northerly route near the Great Lakes into NYS (e.g., 0z 28th GFS) and others have been "ampled" but with the shortwave taking a more southerly track from AR through KY to VA (e.g., 06z 27th ECM). Other runs have been a little flat initially but amped up late (e.g., 0z 29th ECM) or initially amped only to quickly flatten (various CMC and UK runs). This combination of variables has led to a spectrum of outcomes that defy a simple binary description.

Yeah..... I know he loves it as much as we do though. I'm thinking an advisory level is probably the likely outcome for us 84 And north.

Are you referring to Margavage? His primary audience are people with an IQ < 70, and those who are completely unaware of how meteorology works. Wouldn’t worry too much about those people. A dime a dozen. Grifters. Agreed with @brooklynwx99’s take on the -WPO, but I could see a trough that is not as deep as what is shown if the +EPO verifies stronger. I also don’t see a full blown CONUS torch happening.

I would be fine with an advisory event.

I’m about done with this one. Expecting a washout IMBY and around the city.

0z is when the runs start getting more meaningful wrt goalposts.

We are just started and this surpasses anything I remember last Christmas. Another 1.5 inches (up to around 3ish depending on where I measure) for a total of 3.5ish. And this thing still has 6+ hours to it at least in N IL.

Yeah we’re about to get a couple hours of good rates, a lull, and then the real show begins.

lol oh god

it had the idea of the storm....still had a gulf coast coming up the coast. just too far south/east. AI has a nice storm on the 12th lol

My new house yes my current residence no. I'll probably drive out for pictures

EPS mean definitely juicier than op

Yessir! We’re 2 miles N of that line.

It still looks like the Euro vs the rest of the models. The Euro has never shown a hugger or an inland depiction as opposed to the GFS and Canadian. We'll see. The Euro may be about to become as useless as the NAM at these time periods.

Yep, pigs get slaughtered.

Fairly good amount of spread there too.

We’d all certainly prefer that over the GFS/ GGEM/ NAM camp. Just whiten the landscape before the cold

12z Euro AI shows a nice widespread event Tuesday .

Cold day for UVA v. Tech. Gonna have to represent at Scott anyway. Goooo Hoos!

Of course its gone this run. Needing another needle in a haystack to win