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Sadly, it was terrible further West. An apparent Blight killed many Leaves in September here. What Color we got was a bit late and from Tree's that were fortunate enough to not been affected from the Blight. Trees are over half bare now. Some Oaks and a few Maples still have some Foliage left.

Looks like -NAO trying to hold off any prolonged warmth after next weekend. PNA drops so they’ll be some pushes of warmth, but seems like a cooler look vs a few days ago.

It is sure beginning to look that way Chuck. An overall Normal Winter would be a plus for most. That is if you like Snow.

Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s through Wednesday. A weak cold front could cross the region after midweek, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.073 today.

At least Warmup?

Another low of 39, high of 67. Clouds have moved on. Just waiting on the rain.

The ladybug invasion was insane today.

Looking forward to your insightful and realistic commentary. Especially swatting away the inevitable insanity the breaks out around winter events (or non-events).

Here are the statistics for Central Park (1869-70 through 2024-25):

would be nice to have a good late fall early winter storm this year, we are so over due for a big winter, at least in SNE, I'll take some Currier and Ives in mid November though regardless, set the mood for the holidays

Hit 63 today in the old backyard. Not bad. I'll gladly take another month of this weather if I can get it.

Don…are you in CT now, or NY?

Unfortunately you were right about Jamaica as it’s now up to 28 and probably still climbing as they find more bodies:

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning. I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6

Kind of a big trend on today's models to -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Yesterdays models had the NAO very positive for the next 15 days. I like that trend, I think we're wanting to go colder this year. Not huge Winter cold but at least a decent shift to normal Winter conditions unlike so many Winters in the last 10 years.

I wouldn’t put any stock in verbatim storm depictions (I know you know this), but it does look like the pattern lends itself to a few cold shots that could bring first flakes as more nuisance/novelty stuff.

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO) Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked @snowman19

You even missed me?.

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter: Cooler December, warmer February

It won’t snow till you see the white in the skies

I hope that swings south 120 miles and destroys Connecticut, last thing I want is that BS to start off the season so we spend 4 weeks cutting our trails back open!

was just about to ask everyone's opinion, it's been a sig for a few runs now, if anything it looks to be pretty cold, possibly a few inches elevation depending?

If we can avoid the 3 inch rain Grinch on Christmas I'm all for it, until we hit Christmas day I'm not getting my hopes up.

I had a similar issue with the Davis Vantage Vue, maybe 2-3 degrees under certain sunny conditions. It had the shield but it was small and not fan aspirated.