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I haven't really been paying much attention but i have seen that a cold start is anticipated but what looks to change to get the moisture flowing? This dry has been stubborn as heck...maybe we can have a cold January and a super wet month like we had in the summer? I forget what month it was but it was glorious...time that with some cold and it can be dry the other months for all i care.

Sure, if we take a deterministic model verbatim at hour 324.

You look at tomorrow’s event and it just seems like the whole Jet/track is displaced 100 miles north given climo and the sig -NAO pattern. But background warmth in eastern Canada doing its thing…It doesn’t snow much in November, correct; but, this storm/evolution would be one way in which it could happen and it’s not even close in my hood. That, to me, is one key example on how marginal warming is having outsized effects.

For the moment it seems that the best pattern is not going to be Thanksgiving weekend, which as I’ve said, is a-ok with me. Much rather the second or third week of December and that seems to be the flavor of the long range guidance right now. That’s what @griteaterhas been saying as well.

That's an improvement on the euro since yesterday, OLR mins closer to the dateline and all. Here's a semblance of what that transition might look like

Great point. I think it would be hard to argue cape may has a better climo for snow than central park. Yet they got multiple 4" events last winter. Central park is has just been very very unlucky recently.

I’ll never understand the obsession with CO2 concentrations as the key determinative factor of whether or not it can or will snow again in the tri-state area when there so many other factors at play. Current CO2 levels are .043% of atmospheric content; below .02%, plant life, and life as we know it, ceases to exist. This is not to say I believe the climate is static; far from it, as Long Island itself is a glacial moraine. Nor do I believe we should not be looking into more efficient sources of long term viability in terms of power, as, somewhat ironically, we are all contributing to “AGW” every time we long onto this forum. Now back to my cave…

pretty sure LGA got a 4" event last winter.

11 inches of precip versus 9 is really not that much. I don't really think you can chalk up the lack of snow in the late 20s early 30s to dryness. It was likely just shit luck with the storm tracks being west of the region. Of course one can argue with climate change it's more likely we get these warmer storm tracks.

Its the same people

No one has said the pattern will change in November. Keep up people. Epo on the eps looks good toward end of November

Weird morning we had 26 degrees and Montourville airport had 37 degrees. That’s the reading for Williamsport. My morning low ended up being 24 and Montourville low was 30.

Looking at the bigger picture though - China still has a *long* ways go to catch up with the US in terms of their general energy mix. E.g. the biggest source by far (unlike the US) is still coal, and fossil is still 1, 2, and 3 (coal, oil, and gas) in their energy sources. People tend to highlight China's growth in renewables - but the fact is that all their energy sources - including fossil - are growing rapidly.

2009 being in there is pretty hype

And the current snow drought is WAY more impressive than that one. Maybe there weren't any 4" snows, but there were certainly more 1" snows. NYC has seen ~50% less snowfall over the last 3 years than it did from 1930-1932. Even the 3-year period from 2022-2024 saw a little more than 10% less than 1930-32. Note the 1869 value shown below is for 1 year only.

The entire premise is incorrect. There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

Warm up out ahead of the continental crash ... right on schedule. Question is, how much so. The amplitude can vary on that. But just in principle, it's not unexpected. The climatology for going from +(WPO/EPO) --> -(WPO/EPO) causes a large scale 'seesaw' down stream over N/A. Heights first crash down the spine of the Rockies ~ latitudes in response to upstream initial ridge blossoming. Some of which is non-linear - which means forcing you cannot see ( longer popsicle headache). But that initial reconstruction is not a stable wave structure at large scales. Eventually the wave length opens up and the eastern end of the -(WPO/-EPO) ... becomes more neutral EPO/+PNA... and the cold then floods throughout Canada, spilling in either a big course load, or a series of dumps into the NP-Lakes-NE... This all trengthens the b-c ambience from Colorado to the M/A, whence winter storms form... Hint: the WPO remains in negative ... that's your seed for reloads. Or not...sometimes all of this is a one time deal. Sometimes you get Feb 2015's of 1977s at the other end and more persistence. Anyway, this is probably what's always caused the Indian Summers throughout history. It's probably what caused the January thaws, too. But they are not sustainable; the above described typical progression of events elucidates why those kinds of 'intermission warmups' prove transient. You know, ... it's all a bit like tsunamis behavior. First the shore water retreats seaward, aka Indian Summers ... January thaws... etc, then it comes surging back and over compensates in the other direction: winter expresses.

I see far more hyped winter videos than I do CC propaganda online.

Wow didn't realize the late 20s early 30s sucked that badly for snow in nyc. I wonder if at that time there were doomers like bluewave saying the mean may permanently change to 15" per year lol.

From Meteorologist Mike Masco... FWIW FULL BLOCK SETTING UP AS WE HEAD INTO DECEMBER? The latest European weekly run is flashing a very intriguing signal: a robust ridge building along the West Coast, arcing through Alaska, and extending all the way toward Greenland. That kind of alignment is classic high-latitude blocking, and it typically forces the entire jet stream to buckle south. When that happens, colder air is free to spill into the eastern half of the U.S. while storm systems ride along a more energized southern branch. What’s even more interesting is the early suggestion of a Southeast ridge trying to flex at times. That feature can act as a pivot point—sometimes enhancing moisture return, sometimes redirecting storm tracks, and occasionally helping to “trap” systems along the East Coast. It’s the kind of tug-of-war setup that can produce some very dynamic nor’easter development if timing lines up. Not to sound cliché because it feels like we say this every year… but based on the weeklies, this is legitimately one of the strongest early-season pattern setups I’ve seen at this range. If the blocking verifies, December could open with a bang. I'll mention this a little on PIX 11 News Morning Show between 7-10am and over the weekend.

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sounds solid brother. Unfortunately its not always that way. New managers come in and wanna show their testicular fortitude. when they try and make guys look bad, I am always pleased to show them they're wrong. LOL last month i was called in about to get written up because i called a manager out. He was smiling until i dropped the company policy book on the table and said where is the section that says this is for hourly employees only? HR guy looked funny and said that book is for everyone ended up back firing on the new manager and he got a verbal warning for breaking policy. The young fella's master degree didn't help him with that battle. I'm for the people

Absolutely.