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Tomorrow. Will 100% be nowcasting

For early December I'll keep nickel and diming if we have to. Of course big event is better but these are better than pacific puke and shut the blinds til january.

Its just like the 80s

It's still there but it gets ground up by low heights to our northeast. I actually thought it might improve at first because it was lsightly better out west....but the vortex to our northeast keeps the flow too flat to allow the WAA to get going.

i haven't measured snow since boxing day

Just check the ens. before jumping.

all kind of evens out between the two light events. Beggars can't be choosers but I'd like more lol

Score one for the euro as gfs has come a bit north. Riding the line here in north macomb. It annoys me how its like 20 degrees for days then a legit system comes and we battling precip issues.

Last night actually got colder than guidance in a lot of locations. Longer term, there is probably some merit to your post.

No snow or only flurries on 12z GFS .

We get something Sunday, but not too much much to spoil us.

Gfs lost any semblance of an event over the weekend.

You get your Dusting-2" on Sunday! lol

Gfs doesn’t even have a storm. See ya

I do like the cold temps because it allows for snowmaking at my local ski hill. I would love for everyone to get snow, but that seems rare lately.

Nominate for best Post of the month, perhaps year.

The altostratus looks amazing.

Virginia snowfall from just yesterday. Does not include the totals from the event on the 5th. Meanwhile I'm sitting with a trace on the ground and .70" for the season to date.

Gfs is very weak . Putrid.

Snowfall though is generally more tied into precipitation departures versus temperature departures at our latitude...though there are exceptions to this too. Right now we are in a snow drought cycle so correlations will be weaker, but once we get back on track for a several year stretch, you will notice the correlation to snowfall is quite high with regard to precipitation anomalies versus temperature.

I do believe it...it was one of my December analogs and the primary one that I had in mind when coming up with my timeframe for the first significant snowfall.

2007 actually pulled it off in Boston believe it or not....they didn't get a real snow event until the 12/13 storm (interior N of pike had some in the 12/3 event)

I wasn’t here in 1989-90-I arrived in July 1991. But 1989 was cold in November and December but fairly dry.

But that's just the thing...fast flows are unlikely to leas to numerous moderate events and even minor ones seem difficult to come by and are typically regulated to either far interior or elevation (depending on thermal profile). But this is the point I am getting at which Ray alluded too. We keep putting hope in these will work out but there are meteorological reasons (which Ray pointed out) which explain why that more often than not, they just aren't going to work out. I also don't necessarily think its a concept of letting the past cloud our judgement in the present, but more of a product of better understanding the atmosphere and how it works. Think of how many forecasts there have been these last few winters with maps getting tossed out 3 days in advance with big calls and everyone getting hyped up over amped solutions...then well inside the 3 days the models back off and all of a sudden snowfall maps are being lowered and lowered...right up to the day of the storm. Understanding this type of regime and the bias to amp in the medium range, as a forecaster, you would develop a sense of playing it more safe versus going aggressive, knowing there is a decent chance the models back off. But historically a slower pattern with less energy does yield much higher odds and probabilities. This holds true during the severe season too (out west). When you have troughs digging across the Plains but with tons of shortwaves...that tends to lead to destructive interference and hinder what appears to be an environment favorable for numerous supercells and tornadoes (because STP/SCP are off the charts) and the forecasts busts.