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I guess one big question when comparing this stretch of subpar winters versus stretches of subpar winters historically is, are the reasonings similar or are there glaring differences? For example, (as mentioned earlier), if our snowfall is more correlated to precipitation versus temperature and historically, our subpar winters occurred with winter which were abnormally dry, but our subpar winters now are occurring with average-to-above average precipitation, well then there clearly is a differentiator. Where subpar winters historically connected to periods of faster flow aloft, lack of storms, suppression, etc.

At this point in December 2017 all the models were in two camps. An arctic blast or highs in the 70s on Christmas.

I’ll be honest at about 5:00 yesterday afternoon I didn’t think there was a snowballs chance in hell we’d see drone pics of Raleigh with snow cover today but man those are beautiful

You'd think that the amount of snow we have going into mid december would guarantee a white christmas, but the pattern going into the holidays isnt exactly favorable for snowpack retention. Going 40/60 odds, respectively.

Not only that, but look how much it changed in just three model runs lol. People are now thinking it's going to be 65° on Christmas, give it a day. In the end, it might happen or it might not. But the way things have been going lately...everything cools down is we get closer

What is going on with BTV maps? They were only issued 1`5 minutes apart. This happened last storm too. I guess the difference could be due to the start time.

Yeah that one conf in Balty you were like the Hindenberg. May have been the same year Kevin got us kicked out of the hotel bar for flicking a bottlecap at the bartender.

My snowfall numbers look a lot like the 1987-1988 to 1991-1992 period.

Yes, we all know that you save your excitement for the Mansfield snow stake!

On 12/9?

well like I said a couple days ago. It might help the psycho-babbleness of it all if one sets up their expectations according to this being the new paradigm. there might be reason we're seeing this leitmotif playing out every winter for the last 10 years or whatever, particularly over the last 5 years. there's been good times interspersed, sure... if look back 2017 or 18 or whatever. but objectively, what we're observing now has been dominant as though it has become the new base-line circulation type/norm. i keep hearing this internal statement, 'when the flow slows, it's too warm to snow'.

I’ll stay here.

I of course had to chase once more to VA during the day and did so between Red Oak and Wylliesburg, VA. I was there in time for the real heavy band which was awesome. Here is some of what I captured:

We had about a half inch at home but I of course had to chase once more during the day and did so between Red Oak and Wylliesburg, VA. I was there in time for the real heavy band which was awesome. Here is some of what I captured:

Close..

Window for a south shift big enough to bring me back into bigger accumulation is closing. Hedging on some glacier building slush, provided it doesn’t get into the upper 30s and start melting the pack like crazy. Euro still keeps me down reasonable close to freezing, just not ideal for accumulation.

thanks support's still rather tepid

Wow. A couple inches of wet snow timed for morning commute would be quite the surprise!

Managed to keep the high under 30 degrees in Charlottesville with intact snow cover. Gotta be a rarity anytime of year and much less December! Took the opportunity to go on a hike of some local trails.

He had Barkley down the sideline all alone yet forced it to Brown who alligator armed it. I know the play calling isn't the best this year, but it shocks me how much Hurts has regressed. Especially the last 5 games.

HRRR might be overdoing the lake-effect, but it's putting down 2-3" on Wednesday/Wednesday night out this way. Would obviously take it.

Agreed. Op models are going to show vastly different results at these kinds of ranges - we all know this. Will it remain cold with chances of snow at Christmas? I personally hope so, but if it torches, then I break out the clubs and get a few rounds in while I’m on PTO (and I honestly would play even if it’s chilly and dry). It’s a win-win!

1989 may be the only rat that began this cold.

At least we are talking inches not tenths. 32F partly cloudy soon to be winter day...

I smell a rat...