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The pattern goes zonal at the end of the latest EPS and GEFS runs leading up to Christmas, but verbatim temps would be average to slightly below. 15 days out so fwiw as always.

If we don't get any snow by the end of December, then I think it maybe time to give up hope. I can't remember a time when we had a good snowy rest of the winter after a cold and low snow December. Almost always, January and February torched in years like that.

A very frosty 25

Expect cold most likely for the rest of the month with a negative WPO and MJO in phase 8.

Yes sir.

5 miles south and just under 5". Slightly denser. Ratios did their work.

Most of them verified but there has been only a handful

Nice write ray.

Models more or less hold steady overnight. Temps going to be an issue even as the heavier snow moves through, holding in the mid 30s in the Triad per model consensus. Probably would be a bit colder in the heaviest bands, but if the better dynamics are north of the VA border as the Euro and RGEM show, we could get blanked again

What are you confused about Kev?

The current standing wave in MJO 4-6 will consolidate the forcing there leading to a jet extension in around 10 days and the ridge getting pushed east with the falling AAM.

Overperforming nicely

Overperforming nicely

So much for today’s wintry appeal.

Yup…I feel it’s better to see this than some bomb at 6-7 Days that we know will be all over the map, driving folks nuts. A good signal is what we want at this lead….the eventual system will emerge as we close in.

The 13-15 has my interest. Obviously could go to shit, but it has a look that I haven’t seen in awhile. I think I would lean off the explosive look (not impossible) and hope for a 3-6 4-8 deal. there’s probably another opportunity or so within a few days after that, and then we’ll probably warm up towards the 18th to the 20th. But after that, it looks like there’s gonna be quite the gradient setting up somewhere in the other 40th parallel so. Just hope to be on the good side of that.

2.2” so far.

I’m seeing that as well. We take.

There is still a shot at some snow late week, probably Friday. Multiple cold fronts coming through mid week into the weekend with all sorts of vorticity in the flow. Hard for models to pin down. Probably something on the lighter side if it does happen.

Ground zero

No freezing fog at the house this morning. It's currently 25 which is my low. Snow makers are busy up at Cataloochee and Tube World here in town. I'm not expecting much from the system coming in overnight into tomorrow. Late this week we are likely to get the coldest air of the season as lobes of Arctic air heads our way. It's too soon to know if we will have precipitation arriving with the Arctic front.

Another Sunday morning waking up to the goods. 7" on the mark.