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Need it to continue digging west (and south)

One location in far nw Iowa got 9.4" this afternoon. Fort Dodge and Ames got 5.5".

I’ll be first to admit that I wrote this one off early, but a couple more tweaks and it’s a legitimately big deal for a large part of this forum.

Tonight's NAM is going to be very interesting

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/1997469765749669946?s=61

I'll do one better. We used to call it Traction Park.

Thank you! To be entirely honest knowing which model solution is correct goes beyond my forecasting ability as I don't know enough about the synoptics behind storm formation yet (though I am trying to learn). However, I am generally able to identify which runs are better and why in relation to synoptics. I think the main way that the Euro develops the storm to be weaker lies in it having less favorable interactions with the low pressure up north. Looking just at the GFS to Euro we can see the GFS gets the ULL out of the northeast slightly faster so there is less connection between the waves. The Euro on the other hand keeps it a little slower with the northern ULL so there is more suppression and reduction in actual ability to form a low. Though as I said before this is getting to the end of my knowledge so take it with a grain of salt.

Some say it's liability. Bulldinkies. it's all about looking like you are doing something. Somehow, I don't think road salt and chemicals have gotten any cheaper. I remember some winters when they would run out...

HRRR keeps the trend going at 0z for the shortwave to dig further west.

https://www.facebook.com/share/1D7b64ohYo/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Top down saturation complete. Pixie dust has commenced here.

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?

3km NAM finally getting on board with Monday. GFS isn't completely on an island anymore. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15.

Scoring today:

With the 0z HRRR running for the Monday storm I'm going to do a quick breakdown of what we want it to show (as its 18z run was by far the best we've seen for us). I will be comparing it to the 18z Euro. So starting out early in the run the first appreciable difference is that the more northern parts of the shortwave (plus the northern crusher) are weaker compared to the Euro. This helps our system out by allowing it to consolidate a bit more rapidly in the plains which in turn allows for an earlier amplification period. However, the real difference is in the confluence up north. The Euro has this running across our northeastern states. The HRRR on the other hand has it around 50 plus miles further north keeping the confluence located more in Canada and less across upstate New York. This obviously gives our storm a bit more room to breathe. So as the 0z runs its going to be important to see if it maintains these positive aspects. Additionally, it gives us a reference for how the setup would need to look in order to get snow into the subforum proper.

Next week should have a decent event.

I’ll be a little surprised if a sneaky clipper or two doesn’t pop up in the upcoming pattern.

M’eh, I’d rather the ridge axis be over Boise

Feels like there's going to be a ton of black ice out there tonight after the pouring rain we had earlier. Felt the tires slip a little on way home from the grocery store.

Just mention Superm*n * in his ban message.

BTV now going with 4” here. Should be a good little clipper. Let’s keep juicing through game time.

This got a link? .

Already 34. Gonna be interesting to see if there's any freezing fog soon