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Haha. Wow. Yeah, that definitely looks like a default mode on the model. Nearly identical. It may be right, and we are due El Nino conditions...but that looks identical to a level that if two middle schoolers both had that on a test which required prediction, they would be busted for cheating. Good catch.

True Cold next week

Well the best non traditional snow (non gulf low, Miller A/B or upper low) was the super clipper in Jan, 2003. There were also some rogue NW flow events that broke containment in the early 2000s if I remember correctly. I have never recorded more than .5 or a dusting from a true NWFS and even getting that is super rare

Heading to the woods in the morning, Looks like mid 20's again overnight.

It will be my first winter here, hopefully I can bring the snow from NH down to here.

Ravens vs Vikings next week. Two teams trying to resurrect their seasons.

Looks like normal "" Mowvember. Slightly above average

I just like to see some flurries floating through the air to get the party started... 61F already starting to get dark, 452 p.m.

Winter is here

Very nice and sunny 67 at 1:09pm, low of 39 at 6:54am. Showers passing by, 0.01" so far.

Sadly, it was terrible further West. An apparent Blight killed many Leaves in September here. What Color we got was a bit late and from Tree's that were fortunate enough to not been affected from the Blight. Trees are over half bare now. Some Oaks and a few Maples still have some Foliage left.

Looks like -NAO trying to hold off any prolonged warmth after next weekend. PNA drops so they’ll be some pushes of warmth, but seems like a cooler look vs a few days ago.

It is sure beginning to look that way Chuck. An overall Normal Winter would be a plus for most. That is if you like Snow.

Highs will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s through Wednesday. A weak cold front could cross the region after midweek, perhaps touching off a few scattered showers. Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s before milder conditions return for a time next weekend. Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +18.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.073 today.

At least Warmup?

Another low of 39, high of 67. Clouds have moved on. Just waiting on the rain.

The ladybug invasion was insane today.

Looking forward to your insightful and realistic commentary. Especially swatting away the inevitable insanity the breaks out around winter events (or non-events).

Here are the statistics for Central Park (1869-70 through 2024-25):

would be nice to have a good late fall early winter storm this year, we are so over due for a big winter, at least in SNE, I'll take some Currier and Ives in mid November though regardless, set the mood for the holidays

Hit 63 today in the old backyard. Not bad. I'll gladly take another month of this weather if I can get it.

Don…are you in CT now, or NY?

Unfortunately you were right about Jamaica as it’s now up to 28 and probably still climbing as they find more bodies:

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning. I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6

Kind of a big trend on today's models to -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Yesterdays models had the NAO very positive for the next 15 days. I like that trend, I think we're wanting to go colder this year. Not huge Winter cold but at least a decent shift to normal Winter conditions unlike so many Winters in the last 10 years.