All Activity

Just checked. Nope, not December 2020. Though this current projected cold looks remarkably similar in its progression. I am looking for the year where an epic December(way better than what weeklies have now) delayed by about three weeks. It might be that late December/early January cold snap where it didn't snow much - 17 or 18'? I remember sitting in a movie theater and seeing the Weeklies flip warm. I know...get a life right? I had been banging the cold drum for weeks, and it was like someone turned the lights off! LOL. Seems like it has been 7-10 years since that time. I can remember really two places where I connect weather models going nuts(good and bad) and a specific location. The other one(besides the movie theater) is in Hampton. We had been back in the boondocks with no cell service. When we got to the hill overlooking Hampton, I got several texts from @tnweathernutw/ snowmaggedon maps that originally included us. To this day, I hate missing a 12z suite because of that. Those maps were flat out nuts. DC got most of our snow, but the model runs for a few days were epic.

Exactly. That's my main concern and it's incredibly hard to get rid of

I honestly don't use the MJO much in November and early December. I wonder if modeling is over-emphasizing it. Either way, a delay would probably all for the cold to last into early January - good recipe! I will say that I track an "eastern" cold shot only to have it dump West...and then come eastward around Christmas. It was delayed by about three weeks. I need to check the thread, but that might be the Christmas Eve anafront year.

It just keeps coming…

Start looking for a house/property E or W of downtown. They ruined 77 north of town (took 3 free lanes to two free, two toll and the free are packed stop/go 24/7, although if you wish to pay to drive I think they average 50 cars a day on the tolled lanes) and about to start the same on 77 south of downtown starting next year (so construction), just a FYI.

That’s half a winter month and we only have 3. It better not be that late. I’m actually optimistic for a wild December before Jan furnace

Mountain folks getting buried by snow, meanwhile I'm still playing golf tournaments and wishing the season wouldn't end.

DCA: 12" BWI: 18" IAD: 19" RIC: 8" SBY: 8" MSY: T

As of 3.52pm PST - McCoy Station at 9600 feet has had some light snow. You can see it on the ground. But everyone below that is rain and deep mud. Mammoth is no longer opening Saturday. They don't know when, what with this humongous rain-filled storm. Contrast McCoy Station at 9,630 feet https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station with the Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge and Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Main Lodge and Woolly are at 8900-9000 feet and are a rainy muddy mess with nearby higher elevation snows melting fast. This huge moisture laden storm is a catastrophe for Opening Day with tons of fresh liquid rainfall.

Tomorrow and Saturday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region. Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,384th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.651 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yep. MJO taking control of the Bus. Blocking may mitigate the Heat in the East by squashing the SER. Hopefully that western trough doesn't dig too deep and help the SER hook up with the -NAO. Models are not showing that but after seeing that happen the last several Years it makes it a possibility.

I think SNE has to wait until mid December for any accumulating snow. I know that’s climo anyway but I just down see any early jump into winter outside of some passing BN temp days.

Nope not this year Get your shovels ready

Probably factoring the MJO. Crawling through 6 and into 7 by early December. Transition in 7 makes sense if the MJO is ruling the Roost. Continued blocking has become a bit of a Question for December now as some Data has backed off some.

Yes we don't want to get too cold suppression depression happens then. We also don't want the shreddar pattern either like we had last year. An interesting video from Met DT about December.

The now again closed off topic section of AMWX is a prime example. Some of the worst behavior I've witnessed took place over there. I literally cringed at some of the posts I'd seen.

The ultimate model "inverse can kick" period of all time was JFM 2014. It was uncanny

While understandably we are all focused on temps, I like that the weeklies are keeping us AN to normal with precip thru December. At least in the Mid Atlantic, dry is always a concern in Niñas, especially Decembers. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202511130000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511240000

Typical

Question was there a stratospheric warming event lately? Finding it interesting that interior Florida was having low temperatures Tuesday running 37-41 across south Central Florida and highs barely cracking 60f on November 12th at the same time it wasn't all that much colder / warmer here. Almost looked came across as cold air coming from aloft to the surface and then quickly leaving obviously stage right to the east and northeast.

Who knows , maybe he will be right. I mean he isnt the only one talking about a cold and active winter.

My shots from 11/11/2025 in Raleigh, NC: And then the lousy aerial from 11/12:

As things draw closer, even if the cold becomes less impressive, the following are plausible headlines from that account: “Get Ready: The Sudden Cold Blast That Will Shock Your Forecast!” “Temperatures Are About to Crash!” "The Temperature Plunge You Need to See to Believe.” As noted previously, social media is a veritable "Wild West" of meteorology information. There is no accountability. Clicks remain the single metric of value. Clickbait accounts are little more than the 21st century version of the 20th century's hawkers and hustlers. And, because these accounts deploy hyperbole to build enormous followings, it's no surprise that public perceptions of meteorology are distorted by the sensationalism.