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That PNA is textbook

Its so close to something decent for a lot of NC. Just a couple tweaks

Hrrr snows on basically all of us

Not a great surface depiction but it was undeniably better under the hood

Part of the issue is that the water temps have come way down over the last month. As of a couple of days ago Lake Michigan water temps were just a smidge above average and dropping fast. Lake Huron was average but dropping fast and Erie and Ontario were both below average now. I know you only care about Lake Michigan but the way the water temps are dropping, it’s going to take a significantly cold airmass for heavy lake effect snow. Also there was 1.2% ice cover already too.

I'll drive

Look if it needs to happen… we can meet up in winston salem… and we can sacrifice something from every county in NC. Maybe then the pattern will be in our favor since we sent gifts from all across NC to mother nature. .

This is gonna be a weenie HRRR run for northern Piedmont

i'm liking the HRRR at hr 35, definitely more north than 18z

Need it to continue digging west (and south)

One location in far nw Iowa got 9.4" this afternoon. Fort Dodge and Ames got 5.5".

I’ll be first to admit that I wrote this one off early, but a couple more tweaks and it’s a legitimately big deal for a large part of this forum.

Tonight's NAM is going to be very interesting

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/1997469765749669946?s=61

I'll do one better. We used to call it Traction Park.

Thank you! To be entirely honest knowing which model solution is correct goes beyond my forecasting ability as I don't know enough about the synoptics behind storm formation yet (though I am trying to learn). However, I am generally able to identify which runs are better and why in relation to synoptics. I think the main way that the Euro develops the storm to be weaker lies in it having less favorable interactions with the low pressure up north. Looking just at the GFS to Euro we can see the GFS gets the ULL out of the northeast slightly faster so there is less connection between the waves. The Euro on the other hand keeps it a little slower with the northern ULL so there is more suppression and reduction in actual ability to form a low. Though as I said before this is getting to the end of my knowledge so take it with a grain of salt.

Some say it's liability. Bulldinkies. it's all about looking like you are doing something. Somehow, I don't think road salt and chemicals have gotten any cheaper. I remember some winters when they would run out...

HRRR keeps the trend going at 0z for the shortwave to dig further west.

https://www.facebook.com/share/1D7b64ohYo/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Top down saturation complete. Pixie dust has commenced here.

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?

3km NAM finally getting on board with Monday. GFS isn't completely on an island anymore. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15.

Scoring today: