SNE - WINTER WEATHER UPDATE - 1:45 p.m. EST</h1> <article> <h1>SNE - WINTER WEATHER UPDATE - 1:45 p.m. EST</h1> <p>Wed, 17 Feb 2021 05:13:45 +0000</p> <p> I will issue my first call snow map today at 1:45 pm EST. </p> </article> <article> <h1>850mb temps nearly -30C on Friday!</h1> <p>Tue, 26 Jan 2021 11:57:53 +0000</p> <p> 850mb temperatures will drop to near -30 to -40 C across the SNE region. Cape and Islands could see a nasty band of ocean enhanced snowfall as a large upper low develops a surface low to the east of Maine and drops southeastward. The location of this surface low will determine how close the band can get to the Cape and Islands later Friday. With the massive cold pool aloft, winds will bring a ton of moisture, question becomes how strong will the lift become, and snow growth. Right now, it is a toss up! <a href="https://app.photobucket.com/u/NICKSANDDIMESBEYOND/a/8cfb5145-a820-4319-901c-24f7338972af/p/6894fe2d-f848-4f01-a144-fc4d761380d7?mode=zoom" rel="external nofollow">DAMN!</a> </p> </article> <article> <h1>Lack of snow is getting to the snow lovers mind!</h1> <p>Sat, 23 Jan 2021 18:52:34 +0000</p> <p> Subtle Adjustments can bring us from the dog pound to the Great White Hurricane! </p> <p> **2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Southern New England Weather Update** </p> <p> Simply put, the snow lovers across the region are at the mercy of the giant ridge over the Davis Straits and northern Canada territories.<span> </span>The -NAO regime with a large 50/50 eastern Labrador vortex is currently running the weather pattern across the Eastern US.<span> </span>It is dominating the weather scene.<span> </span>Dry and cold arctic conditions we feel today are from a dominant northern stream where north westerlies at H5 are driving our weather.<span> </span>The next few days will keep a cold and dry perhaps sunny regime over the region as clouds begin to infiltrate the South Coast of RI, CT and SE MA on Tuesday. <span> </span>Light snows should begin to break out across western CT and should be shunted to the south thereafter with little if any impacts to the rest of the region.<span> </span>This I can say with 60 percent confidence. </p> <p> <span> </span>The next stop is the 28/29<sup>th</sup> window in which a monster surface center will develop either off the Outer Banks of North Carolina, or the Delmarva peninsula.<span> </span>We lack any confidence at this time to make a definitive forecast of any kind, whether it would be snow, rain, sunny skies or cold cloudy days.<span> </span>We just have no confidence.<span> </span>Seven-to-ten-day forecast is simple at this moment, highs in the mid 30-s along the Cape and Islands, and everywhere else below freezing for the next week until next weekend when a cutter could present itself if the block breaks down.<span> </span>Again a lot of ifs and what’s until we get a better model consensus later down the road! </p> </article> <article> <h1>Pattern is ugly, but begs to differ in latest models</h1> <p>Wed, 06 Jan 2021 03:01:18 +0000</p> <p> Huge potential and yet very far away from happening. We have a pattern characterized by a building +PNA, a budding -AO and a substantial -NAO block like pattern. One issue in the pattern is the strongest PV like low is over the Canadian Maritimes near Nova Scotia and New Foundland, Canada. This entity is causing a massive southern dislodge of a streak called confluence. Confluence is the property of the atmosphere where the jets are coming together, like convergence. This supports a strong area of surface high pressure, since convergence at mid to upper levels promotes sinking air to the surface, while divergence promote lift i.e. precipitation and moisture. What we have hear are three systems influencing one another and mucking the other's potential. We have an arctic jet vorticity maximum rounding the western circulation of the PV (50/50 low) into Northern and Central New England by 3 1/2 days out. Models also have multiple southern stream disturbances over the Central Plains. Now with several energetic systems in play, there is the question of timing and phasing. Again, we will not know until within 18-24 hours from onset of precipitation. Again, a lot to process. </p> </article> <article> <h1>No Snow Threats for the Cape and Islands even into the New Year</h1> <p>Thu, 31 Dec 2020 23:55:50 +0000</p> <p> Next few storms in the seven day show potential for heavy rainfall. Nothing to see here! </p> </article> <article> <h1>December 16-18th, 2020 Nor'easter Final Call Snow Map</h1> <p>Tue, 15 Dec 2020 22:06:30 +0000</p> <p> <a href="https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/i/NICKSANDDIMESBEYOND/December_16_18th_2020_Nor%27easter_Snow_Map_Final_Call.jpg?width=450&height=278&fit=bounds&crop=fill" rel="external nofollow">Snow Map!</a> </p> <p> </p> <p> This is the map for the nor'easter. Cape and Islands will see a few inches and turn to rain, the upper Cape west of Hyannis can see up to 6" or more, while HYA east sees less! </p> </article> <article> <h1>DEC 8-9th, 2020 Ocean Effect Snow Event Prediction Map</h1> <p>Tue, 08 Dec 2020 00:32:48 +0000</p> <p> Wow, now not much in the way of significant accumulations, but the snow showers will have a good intensity if they can become persistent in areas and the duration will be long enough to allow for an inch of accumulation. Map is posted! </p> </article> <article> <h1>After Weekend Nor'easter threat for OES exists on Tuesday!</h1> <p>Sun, 06 Dec 2020 15:00:04 +0000</p> <p> Potential exists for Ocean Effect Snow bands to develop as an upper level low develops to the southwest of the region. Now the evolution of said trough and upper level low remain in question as overall the guidance for 12z 12/06/2020 is still questioning this transition. Newly updated water vapor imagery as I watch, shows the main energy that develops into the upper level closed low is still diving southward with no eastward motion. This suggests it will try and phase with the southern stream system and create a formidable surface storm over the North and South Carolina piedmont region. This low has two avenues of track, one to the ENE and off the coast with little fanfare, or two up the East Coast in more of a NNE track. The latter performs a major impact event for eastern New England, while the former represents little impacts. Ocean Effect Snows will only develop if the ocean storm tracks close enough to the region to veer the flow from an anticyclonic burst of westerly winds, to a more cyclonic burst of NNE to N winds across a very mild Gulf of Maine and Cape Cod Bay. 850mb temps which are found 2500 to 5000 feet above the surface of the ocean, dive into the -6 to -12C range for a good 36 hour period. The winds veer to north-northeasterly at the same time and provide the necessary forcing for ocean effect cloud seeding and developing of snow showers. Again any accumulations will be light! </p> </article> <article> <h1>First Cape Cod Snow Threat Emerging first week of December 2020</h1> <p>Mon, 30 Nov 2020 08:35:05 +0000</p> <p> Models are beginning to show an area of focused vorticity rounding the base of neutral to negatively tilted northern branch of the jet stream trough. Now, energy is over the central North Pacific south of the Aleutian Islands which means the energy is not being sampled properly at this time. However, multi model consensus is beginning to show prudent signs that this trough will be energizing as it moves through which far more productive than a trough that is weakening instead. We have the right trends going as the system ignites over the extremely warm waters relative to average norms for November 30th. While the warm waters are a concern at times, this system will not be driving southeast winds, so the area should remain in a cold environment, enough for snow, I have no idea. Right now, the threat has begun to emerge for Friday December 5th! </p> </article> <article> <h1>NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN CHANGE SIGNALS ARCTIC OUTBREAK ACROSS EASTERN 2/3rds of CONUS</h1> <p>Fri, 13 Nov 2020 22:53:40 +0000</p> <p> Weather folks love to use the Rocky Mountains and the Continental divide as the spacer between the western CONUS and eastern CONUS. The NOAM pattern looks to be in full reversal from this past work week to the next few weeks. The cold situates itself at peak performance in ten to twelve days. The EURO, EURO ENS, GFS, CMC all show a strong signal towards a large +PNA/-EPO spiking ridge over the rocky mountains and the Canadian Northwest Territories. This incredible ridge spike will create cross polar flow across the Arctic and North American Continent. This flow comes straight southward from the Arctic Circle itself which will poor a strong connection of Sub Zero Celsius air all the way towards the Deep South. This strong Air masses will allow the cold to settle in place across the northern half of the CONUS allowing Canadian Arctic High Pressure centers to move across Southern Canada and Northern USA allowing the NE CONUS to be subjected to multiple nor'easter threats. Our first substantial potential powerful winter storm is Thanksgiving Week, Monday the 23rd, that is the signal at least this afternoon cycle 11/13 12z. Again, there is no confidence in a ten day forecast, but today the pattern is showing itself to be a potential. However, before that setup, a large deep arctic air mass will move overhead this upcoming work week from Monday to Thursday before a brief warmup before the real arctic pattern settles in after the 20th... </p> </article> <article> <h1>NOV 15-18th Period for Winter Weather! - SNE Weather!</h1> <p>Wed, 11 Nov 2020 23:10:58 +0000</p> <p> I just want SNE folks to realize and soak up the warmth the next few days, until a second GRT Lakes storm moves through day 3-5 and then brings a powerful cold front through the region. This should usher in very cold, arctic like air mass into the region and the upper level pattern looks to lock into a +PNA at least through the first few days of Thanksgiving Week! Stay tuned, a coastal redeveloping clipper could move through the region as well around the 17th/18th. Stay alert! </p> </article> </main></body></html>