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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Working on First Novel again

Well, guys and gals, the first novel is being rewritten now, the previous draft I finished wasn't good enough, so I am taking James Patterson's masterclass and I am learning the art of writing.
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With SSTs way above average in the NW Atlantic Ocean, severe weather seems likely this weekend

Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
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Winter Storm Gia could bring snow to Cape and Islands tomorrow

Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, h
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Winter Storm could bring first accumulating snows to SNE

Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period.  EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow.  I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS.  This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastlin
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Who Wants to Cowrite a movie script

Anyone want to cowrite a movie script with me, I am open to most replies.  Tomorrow I am working on character names and design.  Help me out, just email at [email protected] or instant message me at USCAPEWEATHERAF on this site, thanks looking for the first few replies.  So be the first one to reply.   James Warren Nichols Productions
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White Thanksgiving????

Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas.  Stay tuned!  As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
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Week of Snow has turned into a Week that blows

With the many arctic shortwaves present in the flow of the northern stream, the Arctic is opened for business but remains extremely hostile for any significant coastal storms to impact the region.  With the questions remain about phasing or not phasing streams in the split flow regime spells extreme instability in the model fields.  With this in mind, no snow midweek and the next weekend system remains in question and minimal at this time.
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Weak El Nino winter outlook

This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above nor
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Update! August 20th, 2019

My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019.  We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020.  Fingers crossed! As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th.  I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned! Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues.  Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mas
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Update!

I will be working on my predictions for the NFL and NBA upcoming seasons the next few days.  I will have the final products by the end of the weekend.  Thanks!
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Update on sports and plus a windy day on Tuesday possibly for SNE?

Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night.  Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues.  Could become significant if given time over water.
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Update 2: August 20th, 2019

Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside.  With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans.  After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list.  This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3"
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Upcoming weather for New England!

Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest.  Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F.  Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebo
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Two Intense EF-1 Tornadoes touchdown on Cape Cod

My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by.  Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August.  Now, why is this important?  During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this tim
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Tuesday storm could bring snows just inland

Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95.  Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time.  And NAM is just getting into the frame of time.  Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough
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Tropics Update! Invest 94L is a threat!

Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place.  The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through.  Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them.  94L is a system about 100 or so m
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Tornadoes possible for SNE today!

Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA.  The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
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The Weather Channel - Naming List of Storm Names

List of names (TWC) issued for the 2019-2020 winter season: Aubrey - Bessie - Caleb - Dorothy - Ezekiel - Finley - Gage - Henry - Isaiah - Jacob - Kade - Lamont - Mabel - Nash - Odell - Pearl - Quincy - Ruth - Sadie - Thatcher - Upton - Veronica - Wyatt - Xandra - Yates - Zachariah
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The business that can change the landscape of Apocalyptic thrillers

Hey everyone, I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world.  I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first.  I have a partner now.  Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out.  We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series.  Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still wor
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Surprises are abound with a LA Nina driven ENSO and an active northern jet stream

One thing is for certain during an active La Nina winter season, the ENSO while in the mid cold phase between -1 and -2C below normal, the northern branch of the jet stream will be very active from now until the La Nina relaxes towards the beginning of Spring 2021.  This winter should provide a rather volatile change in the three day periods.  We will go through changes of warm and cold air masses and active storm tracks either north or south of the region.  Cape Cod has always been the benchmar
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