12z runs have come in and I have gone ahead and issued my first snowfall map. 12" could be the maximum for SE Plymouth to the Canal region as NE winds enhance the snowfall with mixing issues across the Islands.
00z and 6z models have brought an increasing amount of confidence that a significant snowstorm will impact the region sometime Saturday through Saturday night. This looks like an all snow event once again, however, the dynamics are much better with a strengthening storm center passing just southeast of the benchmark. Snow favors Cape and Islands and most of SE MA from the BOS to PVD corridor of I95 southeastward. Cape Cod and the Islands have the best shot at a foot or more of snow.
00z model suite for Monday, February 25th, 2019 shows increasing confidence in a forecasted snowstorm for midweek in Southern New England, widespread 3-6" potentially with 6"+ in bands. Stay tuned for further updates later today.
While category five hurrianes are currently categorized at catastrohic (category five hurricane status these days) 156mph winds, these hurricanes develop with 85F+ wate temperatures, what if unforeseen circumstances bring these water temperatures to 95-97F, just a ten to twelve degree warming could lead to hurricanes with winds over 250 miles per hour. This is trule a catastrophic level. My novel includes the intensity of these monsters in the hurricane seasons of 2029 and 2030. Could geolgical events in the Atlantic Ocean lead to such destructive hurricanes in the future? Why not?
This is the final map for this storm tomorrow, snow begins after 11 pm west zones in CT, 12 am for RI and 1 am for Eastern MA. Heavy snow will overspread the area within an hour of starting, bands look to penetrate the Southern Coast of New England, with perhaps potentially 1"/hour rates for a time. Snowfall map represents the heaviest QPF and snow outputs. I think while I am aggressive, I think this will pay off.
Snow is beginning just on either side of midnight tonight into the rest of the day on Monday. Models have upped the moisture produced by our secondary low with a max of around .50 to 1.00" of QPF from CHH westward to Plymouth, MA. Winter Storm Watches issued for SE MA, RI and Cape Cod. The Islands of Block Island, RI, Martha's Vineyard, MA and Nantucket, MA will see 2-4" with potential for rain mix with the snow. Widespread Southern New England amounts of around 3-6", 6-12" the closer you are to the eastern MA coastline. Areas towards the I90 pike area southward could see upwards of 4-6" while north of the pike see 2-4". Areas west of Springfield, MA could see enhancement from the Berkshires as easterly winds pile up against the mountains. This area could see bands of 4-6". The Map does not reflect this threat at the moment. Secondary low explodes as it moves east of ACK. Could bring surface winds gusting to 30mph as the storm pulls away to the east on Monday afternoon.
Latest models in agreement for up to 8" snowfall amounts for the south coast of CT, RI and SE MA tomorrow night into Monday. Heaviest snows appear to occur between 12 am-midnight Monday to 12 pm noon time Monday for most of Southern New England. Coastal low development, secondary low potentially stronger than modeled currently could become a bigger impactful storm in future runs where 10" amounts could become possible, but right now, not smart to forecast over 8" of snow in bands. One band appears to develop over the VT/NH/MA border from the I90 pike northward and then I90 pike southward another strong band of lift in the DGZ could produce snowfall rates of 1"+/hour. Winds should not be much of an impact until later Monday afternoon as the secondary low bombs out over the open ocean waters as it will take 24-36 hours from 1000mb to 950mb over and east of New Foundland, Canada. Right now, the potential is this storm is strongest of the winter for the region.
Models are aggressive with storm's developing from the deep southern jet stream branch with occassional diving northern jet stream branch with cold shots, these two streams could combine to produce three snowstorms this week. Sunday night/Monday, Wednesday/Thursday, and again the following weekend all threat timeframes for substantial snowfall. 18z GFS produces 12-18" of snow over CHH the next 7 days. Models are in two groups, it is pretty much the EURO vs everyone else.
Today is January 24th, 2019, and we could have our first severe wind threat of the year. Models are forecasting a very intense, somewhere around 4 above standard deviations of a low-level jet stream intensity. 100-knot is very anomalous for a low-level jet strength. If convection can tap into this jet stream at 2000 to 5000 feet, than we can see damaging winds above 90mph enter the region sometime after 18z today. Be tuned into the timing of the passage of the severe cold front, as these storms could be tornadic, but most likely damaging wind threat. Stay tuned!
The next name on the Weather Channel's annual Winter storm name's list is Winter Storm Harper, he is currently badgering the West Coast of the US. Models bring his heavy precipitation and moisture to the New England area in the form of snow for most, and snow/rain mix southeast of BOS to Hartford line. My snow map is the latest blend of guidance, and if the UKMET solution is right, I could be bust pretty low on the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT and it could be in the form of all snow in which 24-36" amounts would be plausible from NYC to BOS. I hope for that solution, but I think it might be warm enough for a change to rain and so I am going conservatively with a 3-6" amount from New London, CT to Cape Cod, MA. The map is pretty self-explanatory. Oh, and more historical storms are in the chute.
Upper-level jet stream dives southward from Southern Canada into the northern tier of the CONUS. Both jet streams potentially combine to produce a heavy QPF producing storm system with all types of precipitation. Jet stream favors a -AO/+PNA/-NAO pattern which remains extremely favorable for winter storms to impact the Northeastern US. Stay tuned, the next ten days could feature a very impactful set of three storms.
I'm intrigued that a colder solution for the next three events, could spell a 10 day window of snowfall ending up way above normal for the season. Some models are producing snowfall amounts of 100" over ME for the next two weeks. Oh man, I wish that happens on Cape Cod instead.
3z SREFs has a mean snowfall of 6.45" over HYA from tomorrow evening through Monday evening. Some members are over 20" of snow and half are about 12"+, so there is a lot of spread in the means, and plus while the 00z EURO didn't show much precipitation over Cape and Islands, the model did up the ante with the upper level low and the surface low strengthening. Also, the HRRR 6z run shows a lot of lightning developing with the surface low as it reaches the coastline, this could impact the surface low track by pushing it more towards the coastline as it ramps up within the upper-level trough.
Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon. Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now. I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm. This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, however, latest short-range guidance the HRRR and RAP 23z runs showing a potential for a deformation band to reach the South Coast of RI and MA. Should this happen, amounts could vary through a dusting to as much as 6" or more, all depends upon where that band can setup.
Could Cape Cod see their first accumulating snows of the season tomorrow afternoon into Monday? I think so, latest guidance is edging towards an impact with some snow, the question is how much precipitation does fall over the area? WV suggests that the northern confluence zone and northern stream energy causing the southward movement of the precipitation is actually moving out of Quebec, Canada at a quicker fashion, is it enough to allow the southern stream disturbance to intensify and push precipitation back into SNE? I don't know, but tomorrows short range guidance will get a much clearer idea and I will give an accumulations map if we edge that way tomorrow morning. Let's Go Patriots!