Blogs

 

Pattern the Next Two Weeks for the CONUS and how it impacts home - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect.  In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather.  The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides.  What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm.  Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overal

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

"The Awakening Dawn" - A glimpse into the future!

On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005.  I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years.  In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity.  Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself.  Struggling with family problems that latter turned

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

December 3-4th Nor'easter Storm Dynamics

December 3-4th Nor'easter Storm Dynamics

The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands.  AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops.  If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heav

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

12z Model Update - SNE WEATHER UPDATE (Cape Cod could see a big surprise Tuesday?)

The latest cycle of the 12z model set has led to a high and very large uncertainty for forecasting SE MA and RI weather for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.  The cycle was spilt down the middle, one side shows a potential major impact of snow and wind for the area then, but the other set as the secondary low taking off to far east and southeast and has a very little impact on the area for snow.  Right now, there is a less than 40% forecast confidence in any direction.  This is very poor for

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Early MET WINTER 2019-2020 looks to bring a storm of sloppiness and rain to Cape and Islands - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday.  I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm.  There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

National CONUS Weather Update! - A break from SNE weather discussion

Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region.  A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow.  This is a major snow event for this time of year.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Fascinating Weather heading for New England this week into the first week or longer of December - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles.  06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run.  The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions.  We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm.  The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers.  SNE will s

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Weather might impact tailgating tomorrow, but not the game! - SNE WEATHER!

Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting.  Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn.  Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting.  40s for temps.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Weather could impact big NFL game between Cowboys and Patriots - SNE weather!

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST time on Sunday, November 24th, 2019 could feature a rather nasty weather day for football.  The game is going to be played at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA.  A major coastal storm looks to track just west of the I95 corridor Saturday evening into Sunday night and could bring rather cool, rainy and windy weather.  Raw weather with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Stormy period to begin tonight, brings precipitation for the area - Southern New England

For the next several weeks we will have an increased risk for coastal impacts from several coastal and ocean storms.  Coastal flooding, high waves, rain, winds and beach erosion will be the main impacts, with chances for snow/ice and mixed precip further west in western New England.  Stay tuned, rain for now, it is not a guarantee.  

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Last half of November - upcoming New England pattern discussion!

Last half of November - upcoming New England pattern discussion!

I have drawn a graphic illustrating the next few weeks of the weather pattern across North America.  The northern hemisphere will favor a regime towards an evolving combination pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA.  The red in the picture represents the presence of ridging in the mid-upper levels and the blue represents the troughing areas of low pressure in the mid to upper levels.  The ridging over western CONUS and eastern PAC ocean along with ridging across AK, to northwestern Canada northeastward to

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

It is a flash freeze kind of day! - New England

Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest.  Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours.  It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector.  AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph.  Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in th

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Moderate Snow Expected Across North MI Valley While Heavy Showers and Storm Two-Thirds of the United States

Surface temperatures in the Deep South, Northeast, and the Southeast will lie between the low 60s to low 40s. Temperatures in the lower troposphere will lie in the high 50s to low 30s tomorrow. Colder temperatures will lie in the high single digits anf high teens at 850mb. This pressure level plays an important role in weather forecasting. Low level stratiform clouds will form over portions of the upper MI valley where elevated snow will occur. Also moisture content in this atmosphere will be mo

Kendall Smith

Kendall Smith

 

North American Pattern details

Strong anomalously cold air heading towards the CONUS, eastern 2/3rds, east of the Rockies, Very warm air across SW CONUS, including the states of CA, NV and NM. Fire dangers will continue for the areas impacted to this date. Very little mountain snow/rain for CA, OR and WA.  MT to Great Lakes and Northeastern US will see above normal snowfall, perhaps quite intense snowfalls in the coming weeks November will bring snow and cold for most of the eastern CONUS Alaska

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

One thing is certain, there is some major cold air incoming

While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country.  While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold wi

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Interior New England - no surprise first snowfall occurs late week

It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weathe

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USCAPEWEATHERAF