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July 2016 temperature forecast contest


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Table of forecasts July 2016

 

 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Rjay __________________ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ +4.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.5 ____ +3.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

Damage in Tolland _______+3.5 _ +3.2 _ +2.8 ___ +3.1 _ +3.5 _ +2.0 ____ +4.0 _ +4.2 _ +2.8

Stebo _________________ +3.5 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___ +3.2 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 ____ +2.6 _ +2.0 _ --1.0

Maxim _________________+2.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ____ +4.0 _ +4.5 _ --0.5

MidloSnowMaker (-14%)___+2.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 ____ +2.4 _ +1.7 _ +2.0

Dmillz25 _______________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +3.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ____ +1.3 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.2 _ +1.9 _ +0.1 ____ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +1.4

Mallow ________________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.4 _ +2.2 _ +0.9 ____ +0.8 _ +3.1 _ +1.4

OHweather _____________ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 ____ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

RodneyS _______________+1.7 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ +0.7 _ +3.3 _ +0.5 ____ +4.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.6

 

Consensus _____________ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ____ +2.4 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

 

BKViking _____ (-8%) _____+1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ___ +2.8 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 ____ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.0

Tom ___________________+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +0.9 ___ +4.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.9 ____ +2.1 _ +2.1 _ +0.2

blazess556 ___ (-2%) _____+1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +2.2 _ +2.7 _ +1.1 ____ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +1.3

DonSutherland.1 _________+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.9 ___ +0.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ____ +0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.0

wxdude64 ______________ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 ___ +1.4 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 ____ +3.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.0

Roger Smith ____________ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___ +2.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.0 ____ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.5

Tenman Johnson ________ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +2.1 _ +3.0 _ +0.4 ____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

SD ____________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0
wxallannj _______________ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ +1.1 ___ +0.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ____ +2.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.5

 

Normal (and Mitchnick) _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

 

Slight change of policy, after thinking about whether or not to count the forecast from Mitchnick in terms of consensus, it also occurred to me that last year I went through various early months and awarded regular forecasters best scores over and above the occasional entrants who had them, so from now to end of 2016 two things will happen: (.a.) consensus will always be based on regular entrants only and (.b.) best scores will be reviewed in past months and awarded where appropriate, also in future months (the non-regular entrants will get their due mention also, this is more for comparing regular forecasts).

 

So if you followed that, consensus this month is based on the 19 regular forecasts that were submitted, and therefore as a median will be equal to tenth highest value. Almost all the forecasts are positive anomalies this month. High and low values are also shown, once again not including Mitchnick who would have low forecast for all but IAH and SEA. Normal already has its own color code.

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Our first look at July, with the seasonal max tracker imported from June.

 

Updates:  July 6th 94 at BOS, July 8th 98 at IAH, July 10th 102 at DEN.

 

 

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Seasonal max __________ 96 ___ 92 ___ 94 _____ 93 ___100 ___ 98 _____ 102 ___ 118 ___ 93 ___ (PDX 100)

 

Anomaly ___ (5d) ______ --3.8 __ --2.7 __ +1.8 ___ --4.5 __ +4.3 __ +3.8 ___ +0.7 __ +0.5 __ --0.4

Anomaly ___ (8d) ______ --0.6 __ +0.1 __ +0.8 ___ --1.6 __ +3.8 __ +4.1 ___ +1.1 __ +0.7 __ --0.2

Anomaly __ (10d) ______ +0.1 __ --1.0 __ --1.6 ___ --1.8 __ +3.8 __ +4.1 ___ +2.3 __ +1.4 __ --0.4

Anomaly __ (13d) ______ +0.2 __ --1.0 __ --1.2 ___ --0.3 __ +3.2 __ +4.3 ___ +1.3 __ +1.5 __ --0.2

________ (p 20d) ______ +1.8 __ +1.5 __ +1.2 ___ +1.5 __ +3.5 __ +4.5 ___ +2.3 __ +1.5 __ --0.2

________ (p 31 d) ______ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.8 ___ +2.3 __ +3.0 __ +3.5 ___ +3.0 __ +2.0 __ +0.5

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updated anomaly tracker ... new seasonal max on 15th at BOS, IAH.

_____________________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

SEASONAL MAX _______ 98 ____ 92 ____ 96 ____ 93 ___ 100 ____ 99 ____ 102 ___ 118 ___ 93

Anomaly __ (13d) ______ +0.2 __ --1.0 __ --1.2 ___ --0.3 __ +3.2 __ +4.3 ___ +1.3 __ +1.5 __ --0.2

Anomaly __ (15d) ______ +0.9 __ --0.2 __ --0.1 ___ --0.4 __ +3.1 __ +4.3 ___ +1.0 __ +1.9 __ --0.1

Anomaly __ (17d) ______ +1.1 __ +0.4 __ +0.5 ___ --0.9 __ +3.0 __ +4.0 ___ +1.0 __ +2.1 ___ 0.0

Anomaly __ (20d) ______ +1.1 __ +0.7 __ +1.0 ____ 0.0 __ +3.2 __ +3.7 ___ +1.3 __ +1.8 __ +0.1

________ (p 27d) ______ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +2.0 __ +3.3 __ +3.3 ___ +1.5 __ +2.0 __ +0.5

________ (p 31 d) ______ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +2.0 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 ___ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ +0.5

Watch for provisional scores to be posted soon.

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<<<< Seasonal Max Contest -- Ongoing scores >>>

 

 

Errors will be adjusted as new seasonal max values are reported. The current values are at the top of the table.

Errors in red indicate forecasts that are already too low, these errors can increase, as can zero errors currently.

All other points can decrease.

 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTAL

 

 

Current seasonal max _________100 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 93 __100 __100 __ 102 _ 118 _ 93

 

Maxim ______________________0 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 9 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 16

Mallow _____________________ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 18

RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 19

wxdude64 ___________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 19

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 19

wxallannj ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 7 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 20

Roger Smith _________________3 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 22

BKViking ____________________1 ___ 4 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 23

SD ________________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 _______ 5 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____ 23

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____ 5 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 23

..

Consensus __________________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 23

..

Rjay _______________________ 2 ___ 4 ___ 0 ____ 8 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 24

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 7 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 25

blazess556 __________________3 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 25

Stebo ______________________ 2 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 26

ksammut ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 26

Tom _______________________ 0 ___ 4 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 28

OHWeather _________________ 4 ___ 6 ___ 1 ___12 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 30

DMillz25 ____________________3 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 9 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 32

Tenman Johnson _____________3 ___ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 35

Damage in Tolland ____________4 ___ 8 ___ 2 ___13 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 6 ____ 40

 

(actual forecasts ...)

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Damage in Tolland ___________ 104 _ 104 _ 100 _____ 106 _ 102 _ 101 ____ 106 _ 118 __ 99

OHWeather _________________ 104 _ 102 __ 99 _____ 105 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 120 __ 93

DMillz25 ____________________103 _ 101 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97

Tenman Johnson ____________ 103 _ 101 __ 99 ______102 _ 104 _ 105 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 91

blazess556 _________________ 103 _ 101 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 119 __ 95

Roger Smith ________________ 103 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 101 _ 119 _ 100 (104 PDX)

Rjay _______________________102 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

Stebo ______________________102 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 94

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 ______96 __ 99 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 115 __ 96

SD ________________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ______95 _ 102 __ 96 _____ 97 _ 119 __ 96

..

Consensus __________________ 101 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 117 __ 95

..

BKViking ___________________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ______98 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 95 _ 118 __ 92

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 93

Mallow _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 _ 102 _ 103 _____100 _ 117 __ 95 (103 PDX)

Tom _______________________100 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 104 _____ 97 _ 118 __ 95

Maxim _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 101 _ 117 __ 95

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 _____100 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxdude64 ___________________100 __ 98 __ 96 ______96 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 117 __ 94

RodneyS ____________________ 99 __ 98 __ 96 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 117 __ 95

ksammut ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 102 _ 102 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 98

wxallannj ____________________ 98 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 115 __ 93

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That is scoring for the seasonal max contest only. It is showing you with the most error points at the present time, which is technically last, but of course you can improve your score every time a station gets a higher seaasonal max. The forecasters with low totals now are in danger of accumulating more points. So I don't know what it means, it's sort of like a golf tournament where some guys are in the clubhouse and some have just started their final rounds. Also what might be a bit confusing is that I put the actual forecasts in the table, that's just for reference. The scoring is the top half of the table. This contest probably won't be into its final stages until mid to late August. Also as I type this, I have not had time to look at weekend highs and the table may already need an adjustment. New York looks like the first to get a boost, that 92 won't hold up much longer.

Just to confirm what it says in the scoring table, red numbers (scores) represent forecasts that are already lower than the max to date. Those error points can only increase or stay the same. All the other scoring entries except for the zeroes can decrease up to the point where the max passes your forecast, if it does. For example, you are the only forecaster with any points left to lose at DEN, everyone else can only gain points (and as in golf, you want a low total score in this game).

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Final scoring for July 2016

The high scores are shown in bold italic. High scores are after late penalties are applied. See the anomaly tracker post below this table to find the end of month anomalies.. 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL

 

Damage in Tolland _______88 _ 80 _ 98 ____ 266 ____ 68 _ 94 _ 86 ____ 248 _____ 514

Stebo _________________ 88 _ 88 _ 96 ____ 272 ____ 66 _ 94 _ 76 ____ 236 _____ 508

RodneyS _______________76 _ 98 _ 86____ 260 ____ 84 _ 98 _ 56 ____ 238 _____ 498

wxdude64 ______________72 _ 92 _ 76 ____ 240 ____ 98 _ 86 _ 56 ____ 240 _____ 480

Maxim _________________92 _ 84 _ 96 ____ 272 ____ 30 _ 76 _ 96 ____ 202 _____ 474

 

Consensus _____________ 76 _ 92 _ 70 ____ 238 ____ 90_ 80 _ 66 ____ 236 _____ 474

 

OHweather _____________78 _ 86 _ 66 ____ 230 ____ 90 _ 86 _ 66 ____ 242 _____ 472

DonSutherland.1 ________ 72 _ 96 _ 84 ____ 252 ____ 88 _ 66 _ 66 ____ 220 _____ 472

Mallow ________________ 80 _ 86 _ 76 ____ 242 ____ 78 _ 80 _ 64 ____ 222 _____ 464

blazess556 _____________74 _ 84 _ 70 ____ 228 ____ 86 _ 90 _ 68 ____ 244 _472

__________ (-2%) _______73 _ 82 _ 69 ____ 224 ____ 84 _ 88 _ 67 ____ 239 _____ 463

hudsonvalley21 _________ 80 _ 86 _ 80 ____ 246 ____ 94 _ 74 _ 48 ____ 216 _____ 462

BKViking ______________ 74 _100_ 82 ____ 256 ____ 74 _ 82 _ 82 ____ 238 _ 494

_________ (-8%) ________68 _ 92 _ 75 ____ 235 ____ 68 _ 75 _ 75 ____ 218 _____ 453

Dmillz25 _______________82 _ 96 _ 66 ____ 244 ____ 64 _ 66 _ 76 ____ 206 _____ 450

Roger Smith ____________72 _ 82 _ 68 ____ 222 ____ 90 _ 72 _ 66 ____ 228 _____ 450

Tenman Johnson ________ 68 _ 80 _ 64 ____ 212 ____ 88 _ 96 _ 54 ____ 238 _____ 450

Tom ___________________74 _ 92 _ 64 ____ 230 ____ 48 _ 74 _ 84 ____ 206 _____ 436

SD ____________________62 _ 76 _ 56 ____ 194 ____ 80 _ 86 _ 56 ____ 202 _____ 396

wxallannj _______________58 _ 78 _ 68 ____ 204 ____ 80 _ 48 _ 54 ____ 182 _____ 386

Rjay __________________ 68 _ 54 _ 64 ____ 186 ____ 40 _ 84 _ 76 ____ 200 _____ 386

MidloSnowMaker ________ 84 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 242 ____ 90 _ 56 _ 26 ____ 172 _ 418

____________ (-14%) ____ 72 _ 75 _ 60 ____ 207 ____ 77 _ 48 _ 22 ____ 147 _____ 354

 

Normal (and Mitchnick) ____42 _ 56 _ 46 ____ 144 ____ 70 _ 36 _ 46 ____ 152 _____ 296

 

Final Scoring for western and all nine contests, July 2016

 

FORECASTER _________ DEN_PHX_SEA____ TOTAL _____ all nine (= rank)

 

Consensus _____________ 92 _ 94 _ 98 ______ 284 ________ 758 (= 1)

 

OHweather ____________ 90 _ 94 _ 98 ______ 282 ________ 754 (= 1)

SD ___________________90 _ 94 _ 98 ______ 282 ________ 678 (=15)

hudsonvalley21 _________98 _ 90 _ 94 ______ 282 ________ 744 (= 3t)

blazess556 ____________ 94 _ 96 _ 96 __ 286

___________ (-2%) ______92 _ 94 _ 94 ______ 280 ________ 743 (= 5)

Tom __________________ 98 _ 96 _ 82 ______ 276 ________ 712 (= 9t)

Tenman Johnson _______100 _ 94 _ 82 ______ 276 ________ 726 (= 6)

wxallannj ______________ 92 _ 90 _ 92 ______ 274 ________ 660 (=16)

Dmillz25 ______________ 86 _ 96 _ 92 ______ 274 ________ 724 (= 7)

wxdude64 _____________ 68 _ 98 _ 98 ______ 264 ________ 744 (= 3t)

Roger Smith ___________ 80 _ 86 _ 92 ______ 258 ________ 708 (=11)

Mallow ________________76 _ 84 _ 94 ______ 254 ________ 718 (= 8)

BKViking ______________ 82 _ 96 _ 98 __ 276

_________ (-8%) _______ 75 _ 88 _ 90 ______ 253 ________ 706 (=12t)

Rjay __________________70 _ 84 _ 98 ______ 252 ________ 638 (= 18)

Stebo _________________88 _ 94 _ 58 ______ 240 ________ 748 (= 2)

 

DonSutherland.1 ________ 70 _ 66 _ 98 ______ 234 ________ 706 (=12t)

MidloSnowMaker ________92 _ 88 _ 82 __ 262

______ (-14%) _________ 79 _ 75 _ 70 ______ 224 ________ 578 (=19)

RodneyS ______________ 46 _ 78 _ 90 ______ 214 ________ 712 (= 9t)

 

Normal (and Mitchnick) ___ 60 _ 54 _ 78 ______ 192 ________ 488 (=20)

 

Damage in Tolland _______60 _ 62 _ 66 ______ 188 ________ 702 (=14)

Maxim ________________ 60 _ 56 _ 68 ______ 184 ________ 658 (=17) 

 

 

 

 

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