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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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AT 258 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WIGGINS...OR 19

MILES WEST OF FORT MORGAN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

apparently a confirmed tornado with a high-precip cell around Wiggins and Masters CO

 

mSBTY2r.png

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my snow and precip totals this year

 

My snow totals this season
October: 0"
November total: 9.3"
December total: 18.8"
January total: 9.0"
February total: 13.3"
March total: 18.5"
April total: 5.5"

May total: 0" (unless you count a trace of hail from 3 hrs ago.)

Season total snow: 74.4"

 

This is the 3rd highest snow total in my 9 winters here. It is about 20" above Fort Collins average. The last flakes on Apr. 30th.

 

March water equivalent total 2.33" ** above average
April water equivalent total: 2.97" ** above average
May estimate of rainfall (up to this afternoon's storm) 0.57"

 

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There was a GFS upgrade today, as well as the change to mixed-case text for NWS area forecast discussions (and two other products). I read that there will be a full switch to mixed-case text in July or August. I am looking forward to seeing SPC discussions and weather warnings in mixed-case.  As for the GFS upgrade, there seems to be little talk about this from weather enthusiasts, but it may be a significant upgrade.

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For a few days, Fort Collins turned into a rainy, drippy place like Seattle.

 

Fort Collins CSU departure from average temperature

May 13: 3.5 deg below average

May 14: 11.8 deg below average

May 15: 10.6 deg below average

May 16: 12.4 deg below average

May 17: 15.2 deg below average

 

rain near my house (estimated by CoCoRAHS)

May 14-15: 0.05"
May 15-16: 0.08"
May 16-17: 1.02"
May 17-18: 0.10"
 

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Had brief 1" hail here in Aurora around 2:45 PM as the sun came out, weird. There was a transient hailbow to the east as the storm departed, looked kind of like really big fast snowflakes.

The cell SW of Fort Morgan that is now severe warned looks to have some good rotation on it - best all day so far in NE CO.

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It's interesting looking at snow anomalies for the last two years - the jet stream essentially shifted the snow north and west from 2014-2015 to 2015-2016.

 

1RMWOH1.png

Those are cool graphics. Say for example, the climate outlooks call for various % of normal snowfall but you hardly ever see the graphics of what was measured for the whole season.

 

Before this winter, I was expecting El Nino to provide above average snow for southern Colorado, all of the southwestern states (at reasonable elevations) and Amarillo. I wasn't sure about nearby areas north of I-70 but I had the suspicion it would be like 105%. So, thankfully, my town was over 100% by quite a bit, and so was Denver. I guess a lot of the West was alright with snowpack at various times.

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Do any of you have this bizarre trend in high temperatures that I have? From 1932-2015, it seems like highs are dropping from July to December but warming from January to June (net annualized warmth gained is ~0.63F in 84 years).

 

Drop is 0.87F from July to December, with a gain of 2.15F from January to June. March is up ~3.65F but I attribute that to a complete lack of above average rain and snow for a decade.

 

CyL53bfg.png

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Do any of you have this bizarre trend in high temperatures that I have? From 1932-2015, it seems like highs are dropping from July to December but warming from January to June (net annualized warmth gained is ~0.63F in 84 years).

 

Drop is 0.87F from July to December, with a gain of 2.15F from January to June. March is up ~3.65F but I attribute that to a complete lack of above average rain and snow for a decade.

 

 

I don't know what the trend in temperature for each month of the year is, around here.

 

incredible rope tornado in Logan County CO. That is just fascinating. I saw a short segment on the news about this.

 

aZjElKU.jpg

 

 

uswpznH.jpg

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This is kind of an interesting turnaround in weather. Compare the May 2015-Apr 2016 precipitation anomaly to the awful year of 2012 (shown here is Mar to Aug) negative precipitation anomaly.  These past 12 months have not exactly fit the strong El Nino pattern in the precipiation department. That's OK because plenty of farms probably doing just fine on soil moisture, that, is, if they're not flooded.

 

7Ucfhgm.png

 

 

 

 

dxoAFNS.png

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This is kind of an interesting turnaround in weather. Compare the May 2015-Apr 2016 precipitation anomaly to the awful year of 2012 (shown here is Mar to Aug) negative precipitation anomaly.  These past 12 months have not exactly fit the strong El Nino pattern in the precipiation department. That's OK because plenty of farms probably doing just fine on soil moisture, that, is, if they're not flooded.

 

7Ucfhgm.png

 

 

 

 

dxoAFNS.png

PDO / and arguably AMO both changed phases, so opposite pattern makes sense if both flipped (even if both flips are temporary). The AMO, even by the traditional measures briefly went cold last Spring while the PDO went cold to warm

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I don't know what the trend in temperature for each month of the year is, around here.

 

incredible rope tornado in Logan County CO. That is just fascinating. I saw a short segment on the news about this.

 

aZjElKU.jpg

 

 

 

This one reminds me of the scene in one of the Harry Potter movies where things that looked like these sucked the soul out of people. Creepy.

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The GFS and predicts the first upper 80's to lower 90's for the Denver area on Thursday. An upper level ridge builds on Tuesday-Wednesday and then gets bumped east a bit by a West Coast shortwave on Thursday-Friday. Some low 90's should happen in Montana on Wednesday. Then the rest northern Plains and Midwest should see the hottest temps of the year so far on Thursday onward.

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Are there any Arizona members in this forum? It's looking increasingly likely that I'm going to be spending at least a few months out in Phoenix helping my mother recover from a few major health setbacks. I'm just wondering if it's worth posting and following along in the western sub-forum or not...

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Regarding severe weather: the NAM/NAM 4km/GFS differ a bit on the details of CAPE and dew points tomorrow. There seems to be some fairly good shear in the area, with the GFS forecasting up to 61kt at 300mb and somewhat less at 500mb (25kt to 30kt). There are higher 500mb winds on the NAM. Convection-allowing models show several storms in the area (CO and WY), moving out toward Kansas. I'd say this is a possible tornado threat. On average, many tornadoes happen around here in June. CAPE > 1500 J/kg should exist in some areas, leading to all severe weather threats.

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Are there any Arizona members in this forum? It's looking increasingly likely that I'm going to be spending at least a few months out in Phoenix helping my mother recover from a few major health setbacks. I'm just wondering if it's worth posting and following along in the western sub-forum or not...

I think there are a few members from AZ, but they don't post very often.

 

It will be a bit toasty in Phoenix this weekend…time to fry eggs on the pavement.  Good luck trying to find a single cloud too.  Daily high temp records will easily be broken on Sunday and Monday (the record for both days is 115, set in 1968).  The normal high is 105. 

 

Hottest days on record:

  1. 122 on 6/26/1990
  2. 121 on 7/28/1995
  3. 120 on 6/25/1990
  4. 119 on 6/29/2013

 

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 106. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 79. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

 

Saturday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 112. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

 

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 84. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

 

Sunday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 120. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Sunday Night

Clear, with a low around 88. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

 

Monday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 119. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.

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