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E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

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Decided to start a new thread with the change in seasons and the other thread basically at the limit. After an OK winter headlined by the epic blizzard of 2016, we head into April with a decent snow chance this weekend. Most likely a coating to an inch region wide but the possibility is there for a high end advisory event.(3-4"). Nam came way north from 18z but with that, scorched the surface bringing mostly rain ending as snow for the area save for North and West. Not often are we tracking snow chances this late in April though. Regardless of snow or not, it looks frigid for this time of the year. Figures we get a -nao/ao combo this late bringing us a below normal first half of April and most likely just cold rain out of it. Anyway new thread for the severe season and this last snow event potential.

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Through 78 definitely further north. Surface temps a good 3 degrees warmer in central Jersey. North and west look good right now with 3 inches this run. Cnj gets hit with wraparound snows but a bunch of rain to start due to the warm surface. Most of the region save for South Jersey sees an inch which isn't bad for April. CT sees close to warning level snows as does NE PA and sny. They've had brutal luck these past few winters would be nice for this to verify for them.

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Isn't there a forum for that area or are they still considered Philadelphia? I always wondered.

I always considered this forum mount holly's CWA. they really don't fit in the central pa/upstate NY. anyway, 12z gfs brings accumlating snow to the entire region. interesting battle brewing between the models on the temps. a 2-3 degree range is the difference between rain/maybe a few flakes and having a shot at getting an inch or two of snow. GFS is a solid advisory event for bucks/montgomery/berks/philadelphia and a warning event for NE PA. NJ gets kind of screwed, only getting a coating to an inch save for the northwest part of the state.

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Looks like myself and most of Easton is without power atm. Went out a couple times, even came back for a decent period... seems to be out for good now until repairs are completed.

Goes to show what adding water to the equation can do, lights didn't even flicker in that last wind storm.

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12z EURO has a really nice look for the surface low. Stays south of the area so we don't warm up. I don't have access to precip maps anymore, but I have to imagine it brings advisory level snows to a majority of the area based on the low track. Can anyone confirm?

 

I dont see anything close to advisory level snows on any of the models with surface temps the way they are progged and April 9th sun angle.  Slushy flakes with perhaps a coating is my call.

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I dont see anything close to advisory level snows on any of the models with surface temps the way they are progged and April 9th sun angle.  Slushy flakes with perhaps a coating is my call.

better double check the GFS. even if ratio's are 5:1 it would still be an advisory event.

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