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Wednesday March 24 Severe Weather Possible


Jim Martin

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Severe weather possible one more time at midweek across the Southern Plains up into Missouri.

 

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12z sounding for Wednesday Afternoon down in Southeast Oklahoma.

 

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12z Sounding near Dallas/Fort Worth for Wednesday evening.

 

It would seems like things are suggesting that large damaging hail could be an issue once again.

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I can definitely see some large hail. The tornado threat will likely be very small due to a nasty veer-back that the models agree on between 850 and 700mb. I don't see any point in chasing eastern OK and west AR tomorrow. Too bad of a road network for not good enough storms.

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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY  

 
VALID 231807Z - 232030Z  

 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING  
THE 20-21Z PERIOD. THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO  
A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF  
AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT.  
 
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD  
FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA. 17Z SUBJECTIVE  
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH  
AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY  
FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW. COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY  
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A WARM/MOIST SECTOR  
FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE  
INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.  
 
AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS  
NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING  
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN  
THE CAPPING INVERSION. ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND  
21Z. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM  
ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO  
SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN  
EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER  
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY  
SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  
AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES  
WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND  
DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  
 
..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016  
   

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Yesterday's brush fire was more impressive than the severe storms. The fire on the ks/ok border apparently burned 110 square miles! The smoke on vis trailed ne to Nebraska. Two of my friends were chasing near the triple point and caught a beautiful orangey sunset. The sky had a very smokey appearance. We managed to get some convection and quarter sized hail with the cells that popped up from Ardmore to the northeast.

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