skiier04 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Looks like you'll at least get something there unless you're in a really south suburb? Watch the CTP radar as those 50-55 dbz die on the backend right on the doorstep of SC. Not a drop and now the sun is out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Yeah we got a nice downpour finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 5 hours ago, Blizzard92 said: Family in Linglestown reporting 1.33" of rain from the recent cell! They ended up with 2.19" after the second round of thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 15 hours ago, canderson said: That's nuts. Literally not enough rain even see spots on the ground downtown. that batch where you didn't get anything, dropped over an inch of rain over home and almost 3" total from yesterday. I was home for the evening storm, i was in Colonial park area at the mall. But our 1 80-100' large pine tree got struck again. my family has been in that house 100 years, I've been there 50. That tree was never struck by lightning and now has been twice in a month. I'm afraid we have to take it down now. The strike followed our dogs electric fence into the house, and blew the power pack out of the power strip it was plugged into and fried the GFI receptacle that was plugged into, as well as tripped the breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Looks like AVP sneaked in 91 between hours today for its 7th consecutive 90+ and 13th this month. Can't remember the last 7 day 90 streak...2005? Also has a shot at 8 tomorrow before it definitely breaks Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Great discussion on the rain event tonight from CTP with some personality thrown in:SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/: It should rain overnight across most of central and southern Pennsylvania. The hydrostatic models seem to favor a heavy rain stripe from southwestern PA into southeastern NY. The GEFS QPF fields in this region are in the 98th to 100th percentile. The GEFS is cranking out all the rain it can and thinks it will be a near record to record rainfall in the model atmosphere. Experience says if the GEFS has record rain then the real atmosphere does too. But not in the same spot. So we are confident in a big rainfall event. The Convective allowing models (CAMS) seem to favor the heavier rainfall farther to the south and east. The 3km NCAR models keeps probabilities of over 3 inches mainly along and south of the Mason-Dixon line. But, the NCAR ensemble was initialized before the MCS in Ohio formed and change the atmosphere. The HREFX is more to the north with the heavy rainfall, but south of the axis in the GEFS and SREF. The HRRRV1 and HRRRV3 (see GSD site) seem to favor south-central PA and portions of Maryland for heavy rainfall. And the HRRRV3-TLE shows areas in southern/southeaster PA with best chance of over 3 inches of rain. And it and each HRRRV3 member show 1-2 inch and hour rates during the height of the event. For the pattern folks, the GEFS develops easterly winds which get to -3 to -4 sigma on the cold side of the boundary. This and high PW explains the extreme rainfall from central PA into SE NE as this feature intensifies. The GEFS also has a good 3 sigma westerly jet in the warm air. This feature and the high PW air are probably causing the CAMS to produce training and one can see the radar forecasts show SW-NE convective bands implying training. So, we are confident in a good 1-3 inch rainfall even. Mainly overnight. We are not confident as to exactly where. Debating which type of watch to issue. Leaning toward Flash flood in south/south east based on rates in HRRR/HRRR-TLE. Some places will see over 3 inches as the probabilities in the CAMS imply low probabilities of 4 and 6 inches. The intense rain should move out relatively early Friday. A cooler day due to wet start in south and central areas and lingering clouds. Most areas will probably see more rain than they have seen all month to date. Should be nice enough to sneak in some outdoor activates Friday evening. I hope to go for a 30 mile bike ride. This will end our enduring heat wave.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 A serious storm is hammering eastern Lancaster and western Berks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 If, and that's a big if, we were to get the high end of some of the qpf numbers, I could go into double digits for July rainfall. I currently sit at 7.30" thanks to the heavy rains on Monday, and a couple of other events prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 As of today it's the 5th hottest July on record at MDT. There is a big SCPA dry triangle wedge on radar right now - funky looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Rain is just dying as it moves in. Looks like the convection south of here is killing us. I'll be surprised if we manage 0.25"-0.50" for the entire eventSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: Rain is just dying as it moves in. Looks like the convection south of here is killing us. I'll be surprised if we manage 0.25"-0.50" for the entire event Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Agree. I don't have a trace yet and it's getting destroyed as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 lol flood watch cancelled "Showers likely" forecast now. Far cry from the 1-2" expected earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 10 hours ago, Voyager said: If, and that's a big if, we were to get the high end of some of the qpf numbers, I could go into double digits for July rainfall. I currently sit at 7.30" thanks to the heavy rains on Monday, and a couple of other events prior. Just 3.47" on the whole summer here after getting fringed hard again today.... #4 driest and #8 warmest on record so far. Hopefully we can pick up some much needed rain this weekend. 2016 #2 driest on record for the year here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 10 hours ago, canderson said: Agree. I don't have a trace yet and it's getting destroyed as it moves east. i came out of Fire Company meeting last night about 830, it had rained just enough to have made the ground wet. i was really hoping to cash in on some of that heavier stuff. we could use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Biggest forecast bust in a year this event was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 1.36" at Millersville so 1 to 2 inch amounts at least verified there.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 .15 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 We clouded up too early yesterday. The MCS triggered All the convection to our south and south east in areas that destabilized due to the heating. Then subsidence came into play and it was game over. By the time rain finally came there was no CAPE left to do anything Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 A month or so ago a good portion of south central pa received 1-3" from storms when the pop was just 20%. You win some, you lose someSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Wow, AVP actually made it to 90 yet again today. 9 in a row. Okay, it DEFINITELY ends tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Harrisburg will be lucky to see 0.5" of rain after this is all set and done. There's been storms all around for the last 5 hours but there has mostly just been quick spurts of rain followed by a tropical drizzle with convection firing to the north, south, east, and west but somehow dying as it approaches Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Harrisburg will be lucky to see 0.5" of rain after this is all set and done. There's been storms all around for the last 5 hours but there has mostly just been quick spurts of rain followed by a tropical drizzle with convection firing to the north, south, east, and west but somehow dying as it approaches. That exact same thing is happening here in Tamaqua. What appeared to be a wall of heavy rain coming in from the southwest just kind of fizzled and refired all around us, while it's been nothing more than an average, "run of the mill", light rain event here. Since the onset of this afternoon's precipitation, which began around 3:15pm, we've only gotten 0.13 in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: Harrisburg will be lucky to see 0.5" of rain after this is all set and done. There's been storms all around for the last 5 hours but there has mostly just been quick spurts of rain followed by a tropical drizzle with convection firing to the north, south, east, and west but somehow dying as it approaches Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The past month I feel like I live in Tamaqua with the rain splitting us n/s and then re-emerging east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Digital Storm Total Accumulation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Digital Storm Total Accumulation lol...that looks like a DT (Richmond) snow hole... I didn't do much better, 0.34" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 RIP Dave Schwarts of the Weather Channel. Enjoyed watching him as I grew up and enjoyed his passion for weather. Enjoy the view from above pal. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 31, 2016 Share Posted July 31, 2016 Looks like NEPA got hit hard yesterday. AVP went from heading for a well below normal month precip wise to above normal (-2.06" going into yesterday, now +0.41"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 Somehow managed not to a drop of rain from these storms tonightSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 Harrisburg and Camp Hill have been really screwed the past month and missed out on a ton of rain. So today a cell tried to pay is back. It didn't bring as much rain as radar looks like but a little is better than none. This is the WGAL AP radar btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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