Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Summer Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2016


snywx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The GEFS ensembles took a bit of a step backwards for my area this run. Mean QPF is at 0.46" for Poughkeepsie (has been trending down from as high as 0.8" yesterday). About half the members above the mean, and half below. The OP is the extreme outlier at 1.36". It looks like it all hinges on what the storm does at ~100 hours. Some want to keep the low pressure center close to the coast, others pull it ENE. What is the main mechanism driving whether this happens or not? Because the Euro ensembles have been doing the same. We'll have to follow the operational runs as we get closer.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea.. Euro has not been kind to us.[/quote

Something's gotta give...especially with GFS and Canadian holding serve this morning. They can't just keep being that far apart 84-96 hours out.

 

They did last year for Juno, almost right until go time. And they really aren't that far apart with this storm. When talking about a storm like this, 30-50 miles one way or the other is pretty minimal. It's just that those 30-50 miles affect us substantially. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regardless if it stalls down off the VA capes or off S NJ one thing is for certain.. S-C PA is gonna get destroyed. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3' amounts near Harrisburg. Unfortunately we need this bad boy to do what the GGEM has been printing and that is tucking it in close to the coast and stalling it off S NJ. I have very little faith in that disaster of a model lol.. My money is on the EC and a modest snowstorm up here. The way this winter is going ill take 6-10" and run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay locked this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...