John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM was a bit warm again, one of the WFO's earlier mentioned that NAM was possibly overplaying the warm nose. The Plateau looks to do well on both the 12k and 4k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM was a bit warm again, one of the WFO's earlier mentioned that NAM was possibly overplaying the warm nose. The Plateau looks to do well on both the 12k and 4k NAM. I agree. Judging from forecast surface temps being forecast warmer than actual for most of us the last day or so I believe the cold air isn't being modeled correctly. Believe more snow than -ZR or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 RGEM looks better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Euro is looking really good for the Central Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Runman...I'm assuming you are talking about the Wed storm. Any idea on how it looked for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Runman...I'm assuming you are talking about the Wed storm. Any idea on how it looked for Friday? Surprisingly, it shows no accumulation on Friday for East Tennessee. Instead, it's on Saturday, and it's about an inch, maybe 2 in and around Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Most of the Valley region is under WWA and even a WSW for parts of Southern Kentucky near Bowling Green. Models are particularly robust with precip there and are bringing some 6 inch totals now to that area. Most models are showing at least 2 inches for practically the eastern 3/4ths of the state. Could be some mixing issues south of 40 that keep accumulations down a little. Good shot at 2-4 north of 40, especially from the Missouri border to the Northern Plateau. Looks like it loses steam towards the Tri-Cities on most of the modeling. But still 2+ isn't out of the question there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 WRF throws a smoker right down the middle. Though it should be taken with some salt, it shows a lot of mixing along and south of 40. Think it's counting all frozen precip as snow on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6Z GFS... Looks to have trended wetter and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NWS forecast Snowfall Amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Appreciate all the model maps being posted everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z RGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Euro clown looks similar to gfs/rgem but has beefier totals (3 inches or so) in northeastern parts. The EPS mean and control are almost identical to the op in terms of snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0z Euro clown looks similar to gfs/rgem but has beefier totals (3 inches or so) in northeastern parts. The EPS mean and control are almost identical to the op in terms of snow maps. I was looking at that this morning. It's pretty beefy for our friends in northern middle Tennessee. Wouldn't be surprised with 4 inch amounts over that way in spots! I am pulling for you guys... Even here in east and northeast TN..........if we can pull off 2-3 inches it will certainly look very snowy before getting wiped out with the surge of warmth coming ahead of the major storm that's going to dump snow in feet northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 WRF throws a smoker right down the middle. Though it should be taken with some salt, it shows a lot of mixing along and south of 40. Think it's counting all frozen precip as snow on here. I don't think we are going to see a lot of mixing in Knoxville. There could be a little sleet mix in at times, but I think it will stay a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just took a look at the SREF. Am I looking at it correctly??? The 09z run shows a model mean of a half inch for total accumulation??? Please tell me I'm missing something or doing something wrong. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Edit: that's for TYS / Knoxville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't think we are going to see a lot of mixing in Knoxville. There could be a little sleet mix in at times, but I think it will stay a wet snow. I agree, that seems reasonable. Something to note here, and I didn't see it mentioned on our local news last night (WJHL). They show the high of 35 tomorrow and noted it a lot warmer than the past two days, but they completely glossed over the fact that our ground will be frozen rock solid so there will likely be problems from the very start when precip starts falling. They did mention there could be driving issues tomorrow afternoon so maybe I shouldn't give them a hard time, but they didn't give it the sense of urgency I would have liked to have seen. Maybe they stress it more today after seeing another round of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just took a look at the SREF. Am I looking at it correctly??? The 09z run shows a model mean of a half inch for total accumulation??? Please tell me I'm missing something or doing something wrong. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Edit: that's for TYS / Knoxville SREF (and NAM) are running warm for tomorrow and it's reflected in the mean snow. SREF has some members hitting 45 degrees, with only 2 that remain below freezing all day. The mean high temp for Knoxville is shown to be 37. We'll see how it trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just took a look at the SREF. Am I looking at it correctly??? The 09z run shows a model mean of a half inch for total accumulation??? Please tell me I'm missing something or doing something wrong. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Edit: that's for TYS / Knoxville Nope, you did it right. That's what it shows. Will be interesting to see how this plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thanks guys!! I think temps are overdone on the models, but I agree it's gonna be a wait and see kinda day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am seeing some posts in other forums that modeling is coming in colder.I know here North of Nashville we are still expecting rain on Thursday, any chance that that could be anything other than rain? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAM snow: Freezing Rain: I don't think temps will be much of an issue. The dry air on the other hand might chew away at our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SREF (and NAM) are running warm for tomorrow and it's reflected in the mean snow. SREF has some members hitting 45 degrees, with only 2 that remain below freezing all day. The mean high temp for Knoxville is shown to be 37. We'll see how it trends today. I think you're right. As cold as the air mass is right now, I can't see that much warming taking place with a weakening disturbance. We are starting out tomorrow in the teens. With dew points suppressed, and precip falling into such dry air, I can't see it going from 18 into the 40's by the afternoon. I have my doubts we'll even make freezing by afternoon. I guess we'll find out in a little more than 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SREF is not nearly as wintry as the GFS for down here. It's pretty much 100% rain. The NAM appears to have more sleet/zr with very little snow for anyone outside of the northern plateau and NE TN. Obviously, I'll be rooting for the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Experimental 24 hour HRRR for tomorrow at 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z RGEM snow: Freezing Rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks fairly certain there will be widespread school closings tomorrow. I know the teachers at my kids' school were buzzing with excitement this morning. I hope Knox county doesn't screw up like they did back in 2014 and not call off school, then have numerous wrecks as parents scramble to pick kids up mid morning. At the very least roads around schools should be heavily salted. They didn't even salt in the 2014 incident. Apparently the superintendent based his decision to stay open off a Matt Hinkin forecast from the night before. That is always a bad move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12 GFS shows Chatty staying below 32 through 00Z tomorrow...warm nose gets in pretty quick but could get a quick inch followed by some IP/ZR...0.2" total..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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