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The Enso 2016 Superthread


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Practically every long range model has this flipping to a Nina of varying strengths by next winter. Makes sense given the response to the downwelling that has been responsible for this historic Nino event.

 

Interested to see how fast this transition occurs given the current WWB is leading to another downwelling wave that may lead to the El Nino hanging on longer, perhaps similar to the 1983-84 decay (which was into a cold-neutral/weak Nina). There is some guidance (CANSIPS, SCRIPPS, SST Constructed Analogue, etc.) that suggests a very strong Nina may develop, perhaps comparable to the shift from 1973 into 1974. I would like to see a thermocline long-depth plot for years before the 1980s, although I haven't been able to find any. In addition to ENSO, it will be important to watch how the PDO evolves over the next year. There has clearly been a moderation of the warmth in the SSTAs off the W Coast of N America since last summer, along with the developing warm tongue of SSTAs E of Japan (generally delineated Kuroshio Current) that is often a sign that a -PDO may be on its way.

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When comparing January zonal wind anomalies between 83,98,10,16.

2016 stands out by itself having a monster WWB in comparison those years having weaker zonal wind anomalies.

CPC ohc anomalies are actually going to be higher for January then December. None of the other major nino years show anything close to this.

Both 1983 and 1998 show the warm pool already essentially collapsed by now.

This one has actually been reinforced near the dateline to 140W.

Ohc further West over the WPAC and CPAC is also warmer.

Much warmer than 1998 at this time.

So this nino might take its time to breakdown because its still got very strong depth to the warm pool

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If we have a Nina. It's not going to come on as fast nor as strong as 1998-99 or 2010-11.

It's pretty wild seeing the cold pool and warm pool weaken in concert.

Where as in 1998 the cold pool was massive.

DoolSPd.jpg

CFS is actually showing another massive WWB during the 2nd half of February.

Which is when solar insolation starts to pile up heat again on the N side of the Equator compared to what you would call equilibrium.

yhzDKbl.jpg

hHk0FjT.jpg

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If we have a Nina. It's not going to come on as fast nor as strong as 1998-99 or 2010-11.

 

The problem I have with this is every other ensemble suite consensus + most of the long range models have us at least to negative-neutral by the summer, while the CFSv2 remains the odd man out, even with a restrengthening Nino by next fall. Is it seeing something the others are not? I have a hard time believing that prospect considering its ENSO performance prior to this winter has been questionable at best.

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The problem I have with this is every other ensemble suite consensus + most of the long range models have us at least to negative-neutral by the summer, while the CFSv2 remains the odd man out, even with a restrengthening Nino by next fall. Is it seeing something the others are not? I have a hard time believing that prospect considering its ENSO performance prior to this winter has been questionable at best.

CFS really shows that?

In realty it wouldn't take much for the trades to change and the enso state to flip.

I was mostly noting that the subsurface isn't as favorable for a quick transition to Nina versus other strong to super nino years

And the current trades + January's + CFS forecast for 2nd half of Feb shows restrengthening of the warm pool.

rUDLL9m.jpg

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The problem I have with this is every other ensemble suite consensus + most of the long range models have us at least to negative-neutral by the summer, while the CFSv2 remains the odd man out, even with a restrengthening Nino by next fall. Is it seeing something the others are not? I have a hard time believing that prospect considering its ENSO performance prior to this winter has been questionable at best.

CFSV2?..Nino?..where?..it's Nina or neutral..blue ones are the latest and they all point to Nina

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

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