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Mitchel Volk

March 25-26 storm potential

1,110 posts in this topic

 

 

I'm absolutely sure this makes no sense: if these are discrete, independent events, that means the next event has just as much chance of hitting/missing as any other event and is unaffected by the outcomes of previous events, just as OSU said in the coin flip scenario.

Then you would likely be wrong, also, because, as I suggested, the "Monte Hall Paradox" suggests seemingly discreet events CAN be dependent on antecedent events.  

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"IF" This storm does end up taking a BM track watch out. This thing has the potential to be a true powerhouse blizzard and crippling as well. This is still 6 days out but they're are signs this thing may not be escaping to our east or south this time. Biggest difference here is this time the EURO/GFS and GGEM all like this potential. Feeling cautiously optomistic about this one

:weenie:  :weenie:

When was the last time NYC had a crippling blizzard the last week of March ?

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Um this is still a weather forum right? At this time the only thing that can be stated is there is a POSSIBLE event in the next 6 days or so. That's it. What this means is we need to remind ourselves to check back in on Saturday night/Sunday morning.

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Interesting pattern on the Euro with the 12z runs the last few days further west and 0z runs more OTS.

One of the more comforting things in this whole setup though is the all the GFS suites and also the GGEM all pretty much agreeing on the possibility of intense cyclogenesis of the EC next week. Track yet to be determined but also GFS/EURO/GGEM ensembles have more a spread off shore rather than inland running. Our recent missed storm GFS/EURO really were not near as enthused compared to GGEM. This storm has my attention

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The assumption that things have to make sense to be valid is debatable. Let me propose this to you:

For an example of how counterintuitive and paradoxical probabilities can be consider the following hypothetical: There are three closed doors. Behind one is a car; behind the other two, a goat. One door is opened and it is a goat. The question: you have picked a door to open but not yet opened it. Is there any statistical advantage in switching the door you picked to the other unopened door? There are only two doors to chose. Behind one is a car and the other is a goat. I'd bet the rent, you would say "No." and you'd be wrong as counterintuitive it seems.

This seeming violation of statistical theory is called the "Monty Hall Paradox" and was reported in Parade magazine. You are not likely to believe this but you're not alone: A quote with citations:

"After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong (Tierney, 1991).Paul Erdos, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation confirming the predicted result (Vaszonyi, 1999)."

My brother has been a meteorologist for an elite fighter squandron commanded by the legendary ace, General Robbin Olds, briefed the Air Force One crew while stattioned at Andrews, and worked for CBS radio in New York as well as the most-listened to morning drive radio program in the U.S for almost 20 years. Currently, he is the chief met for a major cable news channel. I only mention this because he gets that not only mets but doctors, lawyers, and most scientists who have not had a heavy dose of stats at the graduate level really don't get statistical theory. If they did, the "Monte Carlo Paradox" would not have so thoroughly perplexed them.

By the way, when I suggested things gravitate towards the mean, I was referring to the supposition that the aggregate posters on this forum probably call an event a week or so out with any degree of accuracy 20% of the time.

For an explanation of the "Monte Hall Paradox" see:

so is it the "Monty Hall Paradox", "The Monte Hall Paradox" or the "Monte Carlo Paradox"

And I would bet 80% of those that post on here have no idea who Monty Hall is lol

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:weenie::weenie:

When was the last time NYC had a crippling blizzard the last week of March ?

This pattern is a february type pattern, this pattern almost has no comparison to your typical march pattern, a la snowstorms passing to our south due to suppression from a PV that has been dominant in march. Has there been any crippling blizzards for the tri state area and coastal sections last week of march? No, but the pattern next week has the POTENTIAL to POSSIBLY produce one, and i stress a possibility

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:weenie::weenie:

When was the last time NYC had a crippling blizzard the last week of March ?

When was the last time that nj/nyc saw a hurricane make a left hand turn and strike perpendicular to shore before Sandy? If the pattern argues it then you listen.

ps

You've done nothing but call people Weenie and add negative comments to this thread and it's getting old.

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The monty hall problem works because the host knows what lies behind each door! If someone here knows which weather event lies behind each door, step forward so we can solve this. Thanks.

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The assumption that things have to make sense to be valid is debatable. Let me propose this to you:

For an example of how counterintuitive and paradoxical probabilities can be consider the following hypothetical: There are three closed doors. Behind one is a car; behind the other two, a goat. One door is opened and it is a goat. The question: you have picked a door to open but not yet opened it. Is there any statistical advantage in switching the door you picked to the other unopened door? There are only two doors to chose. Behind one is a car and the other is a goat. I'd bet the rent, you would say "No." and you'd be wrong as counterintuitive it seems.

This seeming violation of statistical theory is called the "Monty Hall Paradox" and was reported in Parade magazine. You are not likely to believe this but you're not alone: A quote with citations:

"After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong (Tierney, 1991).Paul Erdos, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation confirming the predicted result (Vaszonyi, 1999)."

My brother has been a meteorologist for an elite fighter squandron commanded by the legendary ace, General Robbin Olds, briefed the Air Force One crew while stattioned at Andrews, and worked for CBS radio in New York as well as the most-listened to morning drive radio program in the U.S for almost 20 years. Currently, he is the chief met for a major cable news channel. I only mention this because he gets that not only mets but doctors, lawyers, and most scientists who have not had a heavy dose of stats at the graduate level really don't get statistical theory. If they did, the "Monte Carlo Paradox" would not have so thoroughly perplexed them.

By the way, when I suggested things gravitate towards the mean, I was referring to the supposition that the aggregate posters on this forum probably call an event a week or so out with any degree of accuracy 20% of the time.

For an explanation of the "Monte Hall Paradox" see:

Only because the person opening the first door knows which door the car is behind. It does make sense, the door you picked has a 33% chance, and the other two have a combined 67% chance. The other combined two doors keeps that 67% chance, even when one of those two doors is knowingly eliminated.

If it wasn't known by the person opening the first door, he would have a 33% chance of opening the door with the car. The solution of switching doors assumes that the chance of that occurring is 0%.

It's not whether things make sense, rather it is whether we can make sense of them.

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We've obviously learned nothing this month lol. Once the system comes on shore out west and is properly sampled all this is pure map hugging and speculation. Good for discussion but PBP at this point and/or arguing over it is a waste.

And correct me if I'm wrong but both Astronomical and meteorological winter will both be over by the time this storm MAY impact us. This would not add to our official total possibly breaking records for this winter.

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The monty hall problem works because the host knows what lies behind each door! If someone here knows which weather event lies behind each door, step forward so we can solve this. Thanks.

Lol you beat me to it. Not exactly sure how it is directly analogous to weather at all though.

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Lol you beat me to it. Not exactly sure how it is directly analogous to weather at all though.

It isnt even remotely related...lol

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When was the last time that nj/nyc saw a hurricane make a left hand turn and strike perpendicular to shore before Sandy? If the pattern argues it then you listen.

ps

You've done nothing but call people Weenie and add negative comments to this thread and it's getting old.

Jetspen my statement wasnt a promise saying a crippling blizzard will happen but rather the potential is there and the model suites from various globals ensembles are showing that potential as well. Nothing is set in stone and anything can happen but the pattern going into next week can yield a monster storm off the EC with track to be determined. This is not a typical march pattern in any sense if it was we wouldnt be talking like the last week of march. PV has the influence that it would have in a typical february not end of march

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One of the more comforting things in this whole setup though is the all the GFS suites and also the GGEM all pretty much agreeing on the possibility of intense cyclogenesis of the EC next week. Track yet to be determined but also GFS/EURO/GGEM ensembles have more a spread off shore rather than inland running. Our recent missed storm GFS/EURO really were not near as enthused compared to GGEM. This storm has my attention

 

It's pretty impressive that we are talking snow or no for so late in March. This one will either get far enough west

for mostly snow here or it will be suppressed SE for anomalous late March Midatlantic snows. It really looks like that suppression

is a greater risk than having to worry about P-Types which is very rare for the end of March.

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When was the last time that nj/nyc saw a hurricane make a left hand turn and strike perpendicular to shore before Sandy? If the pattern argues it then you listen.

ps

You've done nothing but call people Weenie and add negative comments to this thread and it's getting old.

 

Thank you.

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The Monty Hall stuff is a parlor game and means nothing. Of course we can get a crippling blizzard in late March. we've had them in April. I remember the April 82 storm, and the effect it had on local bay fisheries ( flounder moved way upriver almost to Sayreville to find shallower waters warmed by the April sun ) Do I think it will happen? Nope. Too rare.

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It's pretty impressive that we are talking snow or no for so late in March. This one will either get far enough west

for mostly snow here or it will be suppressed SE for anomalous late March Midatlantic snows. It really looks like that suppression

is a greater risk than having to worry about P-Types which is very rare for the end of March.

The odds of suppression like this happening three times in march has got to be astronomically low. Which is why this has to be looked at as an extension of february rather than your typical meteorlogical march chris

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