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December 13-14th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Miller A = exclusively coastal storm. This if far from that.

That's why I said *almost*. The evolution of the coastal low is very Miller A-esque. Earlier runs of the GFS were showing a transfer of the cutter low to the coast in a Miller B fashion. Now, the coastal low develops on its own and takes all of the moisture with it. Interesting trend for the east coast.

 

I'm liking this system primarily for the lake enhancement. As the low passes to our southeast, I think some NE winds will bring some decent lake enhancement to the southwest shores of Lake Michigan. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the "synoptic" snows being modeled are actually lake enhancement.

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That's why I said *almost*. The evolution of the coastal low is very Miller A-esque. Earlier runs of the GFS were showing a transfer of the cutter low to the coast in a Miller B fashion. Now, the coastal low develops on its own and takes all of the moisture with it. Interesting trend for the east coast.

 

I don't see it that way. Still seems like an inland primary low transferring to the coast. But I won't quibble about it.

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I don't see it that way. Still seems like an inland primary low transferring to the coast. But I won't quibble about it.

We'll see how it evolves. After having tracked storms living in New Jersey for all of these years, when I see a low developing in north-central Alabama, I start thinking inland runner Miller A. Nevertheless, still will be fun to track.

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It's way too early to hash out lake details but as modeled, it's a very minor factor for NE IL and yeah, going in for 8+ is a stretch but good luck.

 

definitely on the bullish end lol....but I also tend to pitch the models in the 84+ range...i'm big on sampling and/or short range verification for speeds and strength in the pacific and paint a picture from there of what I think plays out in the CONUS...

 

we'll see, maybe the clipper will throw me a bone and provide a little safety net action lol

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I'm cautiously optimistic about this event. Regardless, this December is a definite improvement over the past two in Toronto, and southern Ontario in general, at least in terms of temperature.

 

Tell me about it. The last two Decembers have been well above average. November was also a massive improvement over the last two years. I like this "up in the air" feeling about how this winter will shape up. The extent of cold air so far this season and how south it has reached has been an impressive improvement for sure.

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definitely on the bullish end lol....but I also tend to pitch the models in the 84+ range...i'm big on sampling and/or short range verification for speeds and strength in the pacific and paint a picture from there of what I think plays out in the CONUS...

 

we'll see, maybe the clipper will throw me a bone and provide a little safety net action lol

 

I think the clipper will be around 2" at best.  Then again, the GFS has been a little scant on QPF recently, but if you were to trust it, 2" would be the best you can expect from the clipper.

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