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Chicago Storm

December 13-14th Winter Storm

1,000 posts in this topic

Yeah it sucks alright, always seems to look so promising with this storm to the south and west of us, but then the low moves east and gets squashed.

 

Im not buying it...not buying any model until 36 hours out! 

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Im not buying it...not buying any model until 36 hours out! 

 

Probably a good idea, split the models down the middle in terms of results, perhaps take a bit off it for an early guess, but beyond that, be skeptical of every run until sampling occurs.

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Probably a good idea, split the models down the middle in terms of results, perhaps take a bit off it for an early guess, but beyond that, be skeptical of every run until sampling occurs.

 

Yup... Euro gives us like 1-3" snowfall... It looked pretty good for a second, but whatever I think it's an outlier atm.. All other models seem to be somewhat agreeing with each other. 

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Euro looks good for Indy and surrounding areas! Most models agree on anywhere between 2-6 inches Saturday, and snow most of the day so I am happy with that.

 

I agree. Hoping some of those totals can make it east Across the border to western Ohio. Amounts will all determine on the potential or not of this thing "phasing". I'm still not putting much merit in to most of the models until this thing comes ashore in the West with some good sampling for the models to adjust by.

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time to punt this one you guys

Lol, the question is..what hasn't been punted? -_-

The winter complaint thread wont feel alone this month by the looks of it.

Well its still 3-5 days out so hopefully things change. Went from a major snowstorm to a major dusting now...

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Lol, the question is..what hasn't been punted? -_-

The winter complaint thread wont feel alone this month by the looks of it.

Well its still 3-5 days out so hopefully things change. Went from a major snowstorm to a major dusting now...

 

 

I didn't punt the clipper...probably should have.

 

I busted low by 1.5" on the first snow and will bust about 1" high on the clipper. Not a bad track record considering all calls were made well in advance.  

 

As for the weekend event, it's over outside a minor event for the OV and the east coast.

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the more i look at things the more i realize just how DOA this thing is....heights over the NE are just being bullied by the massive Atlantic storm near Greenland. There's no way the SW vort is going to do anything but race east

 

digging and cranking heights...not happening.

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the more i look at things the more i realize just how DOA this thing is....heights over the NE are just being bullied by the massive Atlantic storm near Greenland. There's no way the SW vort is going to do anything but race east

 

digging and cranking heights...not happening.

 

Whole H5 pattern does have a squashed look to it. Not unreasonable to give up I think.

 

Personally, I'll probably give it til 0z. There are three separate sw/s involved in forming this storm, all of them offshore. Plus, I've seen many a time the models almost in unison lose a storm in the D4 range only to bring it back to some extent. Some implicit straw grabbing going on here but what the hell, it's the season of hope.

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Whole H5 pattern does have a squashed look to it. Not unreasonable to give up I think.

 

Personally, I'll probably give it til 0z. There are three separate sw/s involved in forming this storm, all of them offshore. Plus, I've seen many a time the models almost in unison lose a storm in the D4 range only to bring it back to some extent. Some implicit straw grabbing going on here but what the hell, it's the season of hope.

 

 

works for me

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Yeah the southern cut off won't be partially sampled till tomorrow's 12z runs and fully sampled till tomorrow nights runs so I wait till then.

 

12z GFS still nice for I-80 and south in IL. Actually advisory snows into MDW area it looks like. 

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Yeah the southern cut off won't be partially sampled till tomorrow's 12z runs and fully sampled till tomorrow nights runs so I wait till then.

 

12z GFS still nice for I-80 and south in IL. Actually advisory snows into MDW area it looks like. 

 

the northern stream is verifying to be stronger (at 12Z) then what the 00Z GFS thought it would be as well...

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The 12z GEM looks like 4-5" of snow for this area. 

 

yeah...decent run for the whole sub forum even....verbatim, some of those ratios up into wisco should be better than down by us...and obviously everywhere east of QC has a decent snowfall out of that run as well

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