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December 13-14th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Yeah the southern cut off won't be partially sampled till tomorrow's 12z runs and fully sampled till tomorrow nights runs so I wait till then.

 

12z GFS still nice for I-80 and south in IL. Actually advisory snows into MDW area it looks like. 

 

the northern stream is verifying to be stronger (at 12Z) then what the 00Z GFS thought it would be as well...

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I didn't punt the clipper...probably should have.

 

I busted low by 1.5" on the first snow and will bust about 1" high on the clipper. Not a bad track record considering all calls were made well in advance.  

 

As for the weekend event, it's over outside a minor event for the OV and the east coast.

 

 

Wouldn't call 3-6" minor...there's maybe 3 of those in an entire winter (on average) south of I-80.

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Thanks for the heads up. I'll check out the EURO on the free sites when it comes in just for the sake of confirmation, but I'm thinking waiting until 0z for some sort of miraculous change is foolhardy. The trends have been clear for the last 36 hours.

 

Through  75 hours the 12z Euro is a bit further north and the precip field is more defined than the 0z Euro.  

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Thanks for the heads up. I'll check out the EURO on the free sites when it comes in just for the sake of confirmation, but I'm thinking waiting until 0z for some sort of miraculous change is foolhardy. The trends have been clear for the last 36 hours.

Based on what I see Euro is 1-3" maybe 4"....

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Yeah some improvements...still weak tho.... maybe heading to the right direction, 

 

Yeah a few small changes through 90 hours but not much different than 0z Euro. Its slightly further north as far as i can tell and the precip field is a bit more defined. 

 

Its like all of sudden around 68-72 hours its energy begins getting drained, however before that it looks more juicer than 0z. Not much of a phase. Its speeding up the southern vort energy and pushing the one in the north further back..

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Yeah a few small changes through 90 hours but not much different than 0z Euro. Its slightly further north as far as i can tell and the precip field is a bit more defined. 

 

Its like all of sudden around 68-72 hours its energy begins getting drained, however before that it looks more juicer than 0z. Not much of a phase. Its speeding up the southern vort energy and pushing the one in the north further back..

 

How is it QPF wise for YYZ?

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How is it QPF wise for YYZ?

Using 12:1 ratios about 3-5". Its a bit better than the 0z EURO. Qpf wise its similar to the GGEM.

Whats your take on this? There are some things on the model runs that dont match up or make sense. We've seen a lot of issues of late, in terms of accuracy on the models..

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Using 12:1 ratios about 3-5". Its a bit better than the 0z EURO. Qpf wise its similar to the GGEM.

Whats your take on this? There are some things on the model runs that dont match up or make sense. We've seen a lot of issues of late, in terms of accuracy on the models..

 

What doesn't make sense (besides that we're getting screwed yet again)?

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