Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 13-14th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 988
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I like that article Minnesota Meso, but one of these models is probably right. There were a couple of 12z GFS ensembles that actually showed a 995ish MB low in Michigan, but they were probably outliers.

 

Like it said, we have to wait until it's better sampled (of course), yet on the other hand this thing is fairly close to phasing, if in fact the southern stream energy is to slow in ejecting out by 12 hours or so we could see a real interesting event for most of this subforum, I will be watching this from a far.  For the MSP area we really do need a warm up to about 20° so we can finally free our off ramps etc. from washboard conditions left over from last weeks storms because of the flash freeze after the snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've only read this once, but this is a interesting look at the potential of this system, seems as if the WPC has thrown the GFS under the bus....

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/12/december-13-16-potentially-significant.html

 

 

Edit:  While he mentioned the EPO he really didn't explain it's effects.  Lets take a look at the GGEM valid 06z Sat from the 12/11/0z  run.  This is a hot link so it will change.  If you look at the map you will notice that a great deal of energy is left behind is the SW.  You can also see a very strong NW flow out of western Canada (in other words the strong -EPO).  This strong NW flow should and will likely leave energy in the SW US as it cuts off its progression to the NE.  I really think that a plowabe event could take place over most of this subforum, but as far as major winter storm with 8-10" or better I don't think so, with the exception of far Western Michigan, very near the lake.

 

http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/ggem/00Z/CONUS_GGEM_500_GPHVORT_78HR.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Probably a good idea, split the models down the middle in terms of results, perhaps take a bit off it for an early guess, but beyond that, be skeptical of every run until sampling occurs.

 

Yup... Euro gives us like 1-3" snowfall... It looked pretty good for a second, but whatever I think it's an outlier atm.. All other models seem to be somewhat agreeing with each other. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Euro looks good for Indy and surrounding areas! Most models agree on anywhere between 2-6 inches Saturday, and snow most of the day so I am happy with that.

 

I agree. Hoping some of those totals can make it east Across the border to western Ohio. Amounts will all determine on the potential or not of this thing "phasing". I'm still not putting much merit in to most of the models until this thing comes ashore in the West with some good sampling for the models to adjust by.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol, the question is..what hasn't been punted? -_-

The winter complaint thread wont feel alone this month by the looks of it.

Well its still 3-5 days out so hopefully things change. Went from a major snowstorm to a major dusting now...

 

 

I didn't punt the clipper...probably should have.

 

I busted low by 1.5" on the first snow and will bust about 1" high on the clipper. Not a bad track record considering all calls were made well in advance.  

 

As for the weekend event, it's over outside a minor event for the OV and the east coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the more i look at things the more i realize just how DOA this thing is....heights over the NE are just being bullied by the massive Atlantic storm near Greenland. There's no way the SW vort is going to do anything but race east

 

digging and cranking heights...not happening.

 

Whole H5 pattern does have a squashed look to it. Not unreasonable to give up I think.

 

Personally, I'll probably give it til 0z. There are three separate sw/s involved in forming this storm, all of them offshore. Plus, I've seen many a time the models almost in unison lose a storm in the D4 range only to bring it back to some extent. Some implicit straw grabbing going on here but what the hell, it's the season of hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whole H5 pattern does have a squashed look to it. Not unreasonable to give up I think.

 

Personally, I'll probably give it til 0z. There are three separate sw/s involved in forming this storm, all of them offshore. Plus, I've seen many a time the models almost in unison lose a storm in the D4 range only to bring it back to some extent. Some implicit straw grabbing going on here but what the hell, it's the season of hope.

 

 

works for me

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...