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Mid November Pretend Snowstorm


Wonderdog

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All plays to known biases as well.  The Euro Control run was a nice track, better than operational run, but a bit warmer at the 850 level.  

 

The GFS/EURO seem to love this pattern.

 

Day 10 EURO sniffs a threat but loses it.

 

Day 7-8 GFS goes bonkers with MECS

 

Day 5-6 EURO starts showing snowstorm while GFS goes OTS

 

Then we find out if its for real.

 

To be expected really. 

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Gotta love the GFS and Euro both going towards their sometimes biases in the longer ranges.  The GFS nor the euro change anything.  This storm probably will suck for 2 or 3 more days  with multiple weenie suicides that may be warranted or not.

 

I'm beholden to climo as we all know. I just can't get behind it no matter how much I want to.

 

Also, predictable. I need a "this storm sucks" key next to my "meh" key. 

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Unless things have changed I don't see modeled storms at 5-6 days, and longer being anything you'd want to hang your hat on. At this point I guess you just say "you never know"

GFS ens members on PSU don't show much of a storm either, but they did the same thing last year with the Christmas storm and the early march storm if my memory is right (had a big storm, lost it, found it type of thing).

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I'm beholden to climo as we all know. I just can't get behind it no matter how much I want to.

 

Also, predictable. I need a "this storm sucks" key next to my "meh" key. 

 

I mean, that's pretty much the safe bet:  climo.  That's appropriate for any time of the year down here, but ESPECIALLY this early.   I'm in the same boat...I want to be excited and it is intriguing, but at the end of the day, when I'm not on here yapping away...you know climo is going to win.

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I mean, that's pretty much the safe bet:  climo.  That's appropriate for any time of the year down here, but ESPECIALLY this early.   I'm in the same boat...I want to be excited and it is intriguing, but at the end of the day, when I'm not on here yapping away...you know climo is going to win.

We're around here for extremes not climo

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Don't know about DC, but climo says BWI should get measurable snow in November.  Hasn't happened much since I was born, but it's still there. 

 

In the current 30 yr norm period it's only a 20%er, at least 0.1"+.  Plus I assume there is a heavy weight toward late month.  But, we are due.  Actually, BWI is not due (2005), but IAD (does Oct count?) and DCA (1996) are.

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any stats to back this up?

Just trying to relate in a friendly way that my experience with around DC is that when we get a rare sizable snow in November the follwing winters tend not be so great.

Edited-My memory was really 87-88 which had a decent 13.5" after the event so normal.

Nov 78 had 3.1" and then the monster 1979 snowstorm. 1967 Nov had 6.9" and 14.5" followed so that's good then 1955 had 2.3 with 9" following and 1955 6.7" with 11.3" following.

I am glad you asked it.

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You can look it up if you want to disprove it.

Just trying to relate in a friendly way that my experience with around DC is that when we get a rare sizable snow in November the follwing winters tend not be so great.

I looked into it further and you raised a good point.

For DCA after a 2.0"+ snowfall in Nov going back to 1950 the following winters are mostly at normal snowfall levels, or slightly below, the rest of the way. 87-88 had nice 13" January total after the big Veterans Day 11". Dec and Feb were way low 87-88 but still a nice winter.

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I think the Euro will hold and at least have a storm (most likely not an I-95 snowstorm though)

 

oh yay

 

*** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM!

** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=601969416516987&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1

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oh yay

 

*** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM!

** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=601969416516987&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1

2 days ago he was saying there is no chance this will happen, now he is honking like a MECS is coming  :facepalm: .

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Now hear me out.....

 

But honestly...I would like to see the GFS show this as well.   

This place is hilarious we always dream that the king shows it, when it does we then need the GFS to show it as well to make ourselves feel good. You know with 90% certainty it is not happening even if the Goofus shows it.

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