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Mid November Pretend Snowstorm


Wonderdog

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Hr 180 smashes us all. I-95 north.

 

SN+ 

 

This run is insanity. 

 

ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png

This looks awfully familiar from earlier this year. D.C. just misses, but it's good for this scenario to show up this early with plenty of room for error.

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If you like rain?  0z 850 line is well north at 168.  

That's the problem,  close it off too quickly and we get rain, shear it too much we can get zilch. Lots of ways to get screwed.  I think the probability of getting precip is getting pretty good for being so far out in time but the chances for meaningful snow are a lot, lot less.

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This looks awfully familiar from earlier this year. D.C. just misses, but it's good for this scenario to show up this early with plenty of room for error.

honestly this is the only thing I'm really excited about, I hope to start seeing a pattern sometime mid/late fall.

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There is nothing wrong with it at all, except to put it out 6 days in advance when no one has any clue yet and there is no model consistency is irresponsible.

and again it is no different than people posting the snowfall maps in all forms of social media going out to the public. So what accuweather did isnt a big deal. They didnt say it was the final forecast, just a possible scenario.

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That's the problem,  close it off too quickly and we get rain, shear it too much we can get zilch. Lots of ways to get screwed.  I think the probability of getting precip is getting pretty good for being so far out in time but the chances for meaningful snow are a lot, lot less.

Wes...for sure.  I think the unusually strong high and associated cold air seems like a solid bet for a Day 5-6 forecast.  The GEFS had 1 or 2 members that looked something like this Euro run...very wrapped up to the point they pull in warm air off the ocean and turn us to rain for the majority.  I think a flatter solution still makes more sense with how fast the flow is progged to be.  Something like the GGEM might be the the most realistic way that many of us at least see some snow.  

 

P.S. "meaningful" snow in November for me is probably much less than your definition :lol:  

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Blah.  Models do well with pattern shifts/changes.   Details like storm placements/formation are the less reliable things.   I'd bet a greater than 50% chance that that H is coming.

 

 

We agree. I'd hedge the cold could be overdone- because it usually is, but -10 or -18 7 days out conveys the correct concept. 

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we're 6 days out and all the computers show a winter-type storm with huge potential

none of the details on any of the computers today will verify and the mountains are always favored, especially so this time of year

I'm pretty pleased to be where we are frankly, and so should every other weenie on this board

fun few days ahead and I'm all in

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As we all know, DCA getting accumulating snow is much harder than having DC get accumulating snow. 

 

The snow maps are fun but they are useless at the same time especially on the edges. I would perhaps not make the same bet at Dulles but I see myself getting a dusting at best in the DC hills as we stand. Even that would be surprising. This is still way out there as we all know deep down but since it's the first and it's early everyone probably has a little extra hope. 

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we're 6 days out and all the computers show a winter-type storm with huge potential

none of the details on any of the computers today will verify and the mountains are always favored, especially so this time of year

I'm pretty pleased to be where we are frankly, and so should every other weenie on this board

fun few days ahead and I'm all in

 

I'd love to chase, but can't   :(   Does the weekend rule not apply in November?

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The snow maps are fun but they are useless at the same time especially on the edges. I would perhaps not make the same bet at Dulles but I see myself getting a dusting at best in the DC hills as we stand. Even that would be surprising. This is still way out there as we all know deep down but since it's the first and it's early everyone probably has a little extra hope. 

Ian, how much qpf of all kinds on the Euro maps for DCA/BWI?

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Wes...for sure.  I think the unusually strong high and associated cold air seems like a solid bet for a Day 5-6 forecast.  The GEFS had 1 or 2 members that looked something like this Euro run...very wrapped up to the point they pull in warm air off the ocean and turn us to rain for the majority.  I think a flatter solution still makes more sense with how fast the flow is progged to be.  Something like the GGEM might be the the most realistic way that many of us at least see some snow.  

 

P.S. "meaningful" snow in November for me is probably much less than your definition :lol:

Probably is but I like saying meaningful since without a definition it is meaningless.  Like you I think the sheared solution is more likely but not with much confidence. As you say, a couple of GEFS members have the look.  I think all solutions are still in play.  The most important feature to me is the evolution of the upper system and over the past couple of ensemble runs there have been closed lows as far west as MO while there have been quite a few sheared members.  It's gonna get cold and there will probably be a low somewhere along the coast (how far east and flat remains a big question mark.  I've sent a CWG article on the storm to Jason. 

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The snow maps are fun but they are useless at the same time especially on the edges. I would perhaps not make the same bet at Dulles but I see myself getting a dusting at best in the DC hills as we stand. Even that would be surprising. This is still way out there as we all know deep down but since it's the first and it's early everyone probably has a little extra hope. 

Even November dustings seem difficult to come by these days around here.

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Probably is but I like saying meaningful since without a definition it is meaningless.  Like you I think the sheared solution is more likely but not with much confidence. As you say, a couple of GEFS members have the look.  I think all solutions are still in play.  The most important feature to me is the evolution of the upper system and over the past couple of ensemble runs there have been closed lows as far west as MO while there have been quite a few sheared members.  It's gonna get cold and there will probably be a low somewhere along the coast (how far east and flat remains a big question mark.  I've sent a CWG article on the storm to Jason. 

LOL @ the bolded.  Any snow is meaningful to me personally.  To most people, meaningful probably means having to deal with it in terms of shoveling or driving differently.  

 

Look forward to the article.  

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While the MJO progression going on, Aleutian High etc. are all notorious factors here, the one thing missing is the NAO. The MJO progression has similarities to 2009, 2002, 2000, 1993, 1990, 1987, 1986, 1985 at the moment and many of these had November systems (near-coastals or coastals). In the case of 1987, the MJO was classic but so was the split stream / el nino pattern. There was also a classic retrograding -NAO anomaly with 50-50 low which forced the northern stream to dig down and phase with the southern stream s/w.

 

 

In this case, we have a very strong, but quick-hitting, ridge out West that forces PV-deformation between the departing SE Canadian Low and the system that may or may not bring a coastal storm. Between typical D.A. issues and complexity of this flow, I wouldn't count on anything without the NAO.

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