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The One True 2013-14 Winter Outlook Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

BRRRRRRR........

Thank you :wub: 

 

No wooly worms or spiderwebs? Real scientific stuff only?

Since we are heading into our busiest season it's time to keep the banter in the threads designed for it ;)    Hopefully some red taggers and others will post their thoughts showing CAE some :wub: this winter  :lol: 

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

Damn, Jburns started the thread. Worst winter ever. Look what happened when he started the tropical thread.

 

:lol: I'm tempted to agree with you. :P But nahh... Not if this pattern keeps up all winter: post-1807-0-80705500-1381891425_thumb.pn

That's next week's chill and the GFS generally keeps the western ridge and eastern trough through the extended. If we get the NAO to go negative at the right time... WHOA NELLY! I mean, look at hr 384 (not posting that for obvious reasons!) on the 18Z. You get the NAO to be a bit more negative there and you're talking real fun for a lot on this board! (Maybe not for you or me, Metalic... :( )

 

I should also add that I have a hunch (nothing more) that the Northern Plains and Great Lakes are going to do well this season, while those in the SE will be brushed a few times. Again, that's a hunch and nothing meteorological, right now anyway, to back it up. :lol:

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

:lol: I'm tempted to agree with you. :P But nahh... Not if this pattern keeps up all winter: attachicon.gifgfs_z500a_nhem_62.png

That's next week's chill and the GFS generally keeps the western ridge and eastern trough through the extended. If we get the NAO to go negative at the right time... WHOA NELLY! I mean, look at hr 384 (not posting that for obvious reasons!) on the 18Z. You get the NAO to be a bit more negative there and you're talking real fun for a lot on this board! (Maybe not for you or me, Metalic... :( )

 

I should also add that I have a hunch (nothing more) that the Northern Plains and Great Lakes are going to do well this season, while those in the SE will be brushed a few times. Again, that's a hunch and nothing meteorological, right now anyway, to back it up. :lol:

Does Minion help with your hunches? If Minion's involved I tend to grade you higher in probability :)  T

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

Roger Smith has published his outlook on the main forum and his forecast is a good one for SE snow lovers. He doesn't give much, if any, reasoning behind the forecast. Anyway, I thought I would mention it because, best I can recall, Roger has had some success in the past (and of course some busts).

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Roger Smith has published his outlook on the main forum and his forecast is a good one for SE snow lovers. He doesn't give much, if any, reasoning behind the forecast. Anyway, I thought I would mention it because, best I can recall, Roger has had some success in the past (and of course some busts).

 

 I know he uses some interesting factors like the moon or something similar for the tropics. Based on this, he's been honking for a late October tropical related surprise for the east coast. I wonder if this factor is one of the primary factors he uses. That being said, I just read his forecast & can't really tell from that if it is favorable for snow in the SE US, especially down in GA, because it is fairly vague. For N GA to get a major snowstorm, the low normally needs to track south of the Gulf coast and then cross SE GA or N FL while there is also a good cold source to the north. All it takes is one to make it a big season in N GA.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Link or proof? I believe he was also saying cold and snowy last winter.

Correct me if I am wrong.

 

I was specifically referencing this video in which he outlined the Pacific influence and the PDO overwhelming an otherwise favorable pattern during the early/core part of last winter and the overall storm track.

Note this video was the one Levi did on 12/3/2012 and is for last years winter 2012-2013.  This video was a well thought out and clearly explained presentation

 

Seriously though, I feel it is a mistake to put anyone up on pedastal for specifics on long range forecasting. That was not my intent. Only the Good Lord knows how it will work out.

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

 I know he uses some interesting factors like the moon or something similar for the tropics. Based on this, he's been honking for a late October tropical related surprise for the east coast. I wonder if this factor is one of the primary factors he uses. That being said, I just read his forecast & can't really tell from that if it is favorable for snow in the SE US, especially down in GA, because it is fairly vague. For N GA to get a major snowstorm, the low normally needs to track south of the Gulf coast and then cross SE GA or N FL while there is also a good cold source to the north. All it takes is one to make it a big season in N GA.

 

You're right Larry, it is rather vague, but the overall theme of trough east/ridge west and the talk of the occasional coastal storm track sounds favorable for at least parts of the SE. That's what I took away from it anyway.

 

Hoping for the best for all of us!

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I was reading Joe Bastardi's Twitter and he was discussing the latest Ensemble runs have flipped to a warm November pattern (..rest of October cold). As I have posted before I think this might be a good thing. From past memories, it seems the pattern that is established in early December predominates throughout the winter. So if it's warm in November a flip of the pattern (sometime in early December) would be to cold (-NAO / +PNA).

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

I was reading Joe Bastardi's Twitter and he was discussing the latest Ensemble runs have flipped to a warm November pattern (..rest of October cold). As I have posted before I think this might be a good thing. From past memories, it seems the pattern that is established in early December predominates throughout the winter. So if it's warm in November a flip of the pattern (sometime in early December) would be to cold (-NAO / +PNA).

Strongly agree.

TW

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I am loving the look of a strong low developing in the Aleutians over the coming days that really helps pump that western ridge.  I hope that's a feature that finds a way to repeat a few times this winter.  Seems like that look (no matter the fall or winter month) over the past two years has been non-existent.

 

Also, should be fun to watch to see if the SAI can rapidly increase from here on out through the end of the month.  Go SAI - don't let us down!

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Damn, Jburns started the thread. Worst winter ever. Look what happened when he started the tropical thread.Yea

Yeah, but look how far out he nailed it!  From last Dec. he was able to single handedly squash the tropical season which was months and months away!  Now that is pure raw power!! Think if he decided to use if for good..... T

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jburns

jburns

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Yeah, but look how far out he nailed it!  From last Dec. he was able to single handedly squash the tropical season which was months and months away!  Now that is pure raw power!! Think if he decided to use if for good..... T

 

 

Use my powers for good?  Are you mad??  That violates the villain code's prime directive.  Everyone knows, YOU NEVER VIOLATE THE PRIME DIRECTIVE.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
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Use my powers for good?  Are you mad??  That violates the villain code's prime directive.  Everyone knows, YOU NEVER VIOLATE THE PRIME DIRECTIVE.

Looks like the western Atlantic, and the Gulf might be ripe for development at the end of the month.  You could assert villainous nature by assisting any development, and urging it  to head my way.  I would quake, and rail at the villainy..... to help keep your cover!  T

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

RaysWeather is in with his winter outlook (good forecaster out of Boone, NC) - http://raysweather.com/Fearless+Forecast

 

Going with 13" for Asheville and 6" for Hickory

 

Yep, here's my favorite part of his forecast:

 

 

And so it goes with Winter Forecasting in the Fall every year. Regardless of what has happened leading up to October, the weather drama queens and kings yell "Watch for A Cold/Snowy Winter!!!!!!!". And of course once or twice a decade, they will be right, and that is enough to perpetuate the ritual. It can be fogs in August, squirrels gathering acorns, the number of acorns (and other nuts) on trees, a cool summer, a warm summer, a wet summer, a warm fall, a dry fall, woolly worms, lots of hurricanes, few hurricanes, more foliage, more spiders, where squirrels and hornets build nests, mice invading homes, various behaviors of birds, corn husks, holly and dogwood berries, thickness of animal's fur, big pine cones, corn husks, and I'm sure many more that I have never heard of. Whatever happens each Fall, something can be found as a reason to yell "Watch for A Cold/Snowy Winter!!!!!!!".

 

I highlighted a few reasons for a cold/snowy winter that we have already had mentioned around here.  :clap:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

This 10-15 degrees below normal coming up is great and all, but don't want to waste it in October . ! I guess it may relax into November and hopefully come back for Dec and Jan!? I guess we could just keep it cold the entire winter like what happened in Alaska 2 years ago, or Europe last year.

The NAO looks to go positive by the first of November. Just looking at this we should go into a warmer pattern. How long(?), not really sure but we could guess until at least the middle of November. This could set us up for a late November or early December switch back to a colder pattern.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

One of the worst ice storms I have ever been through in the GSP area was very early December of 2002, I believe. It was right after thanksgiving ,and it was in the 60s the day before and the next morning it was 28, and stayed all day and lots of freezing rain and sleet. Lost power for 6 days! If the cold comes back for December as much below averages as we are about to see, we could get in on some wintry weather!

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
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One of the worst ice storms I have ever been through in the GSP area was very early December of 2002, I believe. It was right after thanksgiving ,and it was in the 60s the day before and the next morning it was 28, and stayed all day and lots of freezing rain and sleet. Lost power for 6 days! If the cold comes back for December as much below averages as we are about to see, we could get in on some wintry weather!

You're sort of in the same weather zone I'm in; basically from Greenville SC through charlotte to Raleigh. This zone doesn't always setup exactly the same but is close (SW to NE). Below is the 2002 storm summary. Doesn't show SC but you get the idea.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

I use the EDD page a lot and I really like the additional layers that can be displayed.

If you click on "Other Layers" on the left hand menu and choose "Marine", you'll find all kinds of things to display. But under Marine, choose:

"Ice Extent (latest)" AND "Sea Surface Temps" to get a good picture of the current ice and water conditions in the polar region and and around Canada. Very slick.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php

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