Amped Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Debris from the shawnee cell coming down near tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tonkawa cell looks great visually. If it can organize more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Welty population 752 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Cell looks like it's turning more due east again rather than the NNE movement it's had. Southern circulation could ramp up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Been a few scans since I've seen a debris signature in Ofuskee County. May have lifted for a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What happened to the Northern/Tulsa Supercells? Not sure, they didn't like something with the environment, both of them dried up in basically the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Been a few scans since I've seen a debris signature in Ofuskee County. May have lifted for a bit? I think the southern circulation should take over as the storm merger occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The trees are stripped of bark and just everything besides the trunk is gone... Looks like the trees in greensburg, ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I think the southern circulation should take over as the storm merger occurs. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The damage on the news9 feed is pretty sobering stuff to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 This was probably an EF-4 tornado maybe more, we'll see after the survey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 If both cells had developed 15 miles west it could have been exponentially worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Cell near Ponca City bears watching, imo. Not tornadic yet, but if Mesoanalysis is to be believed, it's moving into a localized area that is much more favorable. Right now it's sitting on a contour of 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, but there's a small max of 250 m2/s2 right over the KS border in its path. Being on the tail end of that line will certainly help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What happened to the Northern/Tulsa Supercells? My hunch is that the massive Shawnee circulation to the south deprived them of proper inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The HRRR has been doing a fantastic job with the storms this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The HRRR has been doing a fantastic job with the storms this afternoon/evening. Not to get ahead of ourselves but tomorrow continues to look nasty, so we'll see what it shows for then later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 My L2A skills are lacking, but here's what I came up with from a shot from a few minutes ago to show a coworker just how wide the "footprint" of circulation - as opposd to just a tornado - can be close to ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Bethel Acres is just completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Any thoughts on the potential for something to spin up around Okemah/Clearview in the next few minutes? That former Prague cell is still hanging in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Well, I should probably be publicly executed for my comments on today's threat the past several days. Having my worst chase day in at least three years (zero tubes) will have to suffice, though. Very unfortunate that areas similar to 5/10/10 just E of OUN took the brunt again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Well, I should probably be publicly executed for my comments on today's threat the past several days. Having my worst chase day in at least three years (zero tubes) will have to suffice, though. Very unfortunate that areas similar to 5/10/10 just E of OUN took the brunt again. Did you go north into Kansas? Didn't you mention something about not learning your lesson earlier? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Not to get ahead of ourselves but tomorrow continues to look nasty, so we'll see what it shows for then later on. After todays model fails (and successes), riding the ECMWF/GFS would suggest another potential big day tomorrow. I had backtracked on the threat tomorrow, but it may just all need to be shifted southward centered over the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 After todays model fails (and successes), riding the ECMWF/GFS would suggest another potential big day tomorrow. I had backtracked on the threat tomorrow, but it may just all need to be shifted southward centered over the Red River. The timing of that second jet streak and vort max continues to look very favorable tomorrow, the instability/shear parameters look just as strong if not stronger than what we had today. I am becoming increasingly worried for the I-35 corridor OKC south and eastward from 18z on tomorrow afternoon and evening (and also northeast along I-44 through Tulsa and Joplin perhaps as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Reported paperwork debris with Shawnee addresses raining down in Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 After todays model fails (and successes), riding the ECMWF/GFS would suggest another potential big day tomorrow. I had backtracked on the threat tomorrow, but it may just all need to be shifted southward centered over the Red River. Yeah the NAM today was pretty terrible, the higher LCLs never materialized like it showed. It really is unfortunate that the mesoscale model designed for short term situations just can't get things right with any great consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 If both cells had developed 15 miles west it could have been exponentially worse. Kind of like a mirror image of May 24, 2011, when multiple violent tornadoes died just west of OKC/Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Low-level jet doesn't seem as strong tomorrow as it was today. Everything else seems as favorable, if not more so, for tomorrow otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Kind of like a mirror image of May 24, 2011, when multiple violent tornadoes died just west of OKC/Norman. Yes it was likely similar in intensity. OKC lucked out twice. Also, how many Reed Timmers are there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Did you go north into Kansas? Didn't you mention something about not learning your lesson earlier? lol Yep. When it comes to making irrational decisions to avoid chasing in the metro and/or bad terrain, I never will learn. Like, it'll probably happen again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I don't really like tomorrow's setup very much, to be honest. I dislike how the frontal boundary seems to sink southward, with due northerly winds behind it. This sets up a problem where any cells that initiate close to the front along the dryline will be undercut by that front. The low level jet is not as strong and organized as it was today either, and indeed the models have trended weaker with it for the Monday event during the last couple days of runs. I still do expect a couple of sustained supercells to produce some tornadoes, possibly a couple significant, and it'll probably be a good chase day. I certainly don't see a repeat of the violence of today's outbreak, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.