iverson3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM def further east at hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hard to believe it will be that warm at hr 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This run is back to putting the heaviest QPF over Long Island instead of over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This run is back to putting the heaviest QPF over Long Island instead of over NJ. Yup. Still, everything is crashing at 18, big hit for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 hr 21 is amazing!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yup. Still, everything is crashing at 18, big hit for nyc I actually like this run better, but that's because I'm on LI I do think that the run should have been a bit colder than it was, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Main CCB setting up just east of the city...still looking like 1.5"+ total QPF, with more on LI. Definitely looks like it is coming around to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks about 30 miles northeast...the center, precip shield, and how far west really heavy stuff gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 hr 21 is amazing!!!!!!! Where do you get the 3 hour panel? Hour 24 is sick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Did the NAM initialize with the low at 1008? Current obvs has it at 1003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Most of Long Island has 3"+ of QPF through 24 hours. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice run, its just so warm ( I guess its reflecting the much warmer surface temps now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I actually like this run better, but that's because I'm on LI I do think that the run should have been a bit colder than it was, though. Yeah , verbatim it's a questionable call to see if areas mix at the start. This run is more believable than 00z.. Let's hope this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where do you get the 3 hour panel? Hour 24 is sick! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam&cycle=06&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yup....always something Did the NAM initialize with the low at 1008? Current obvs has it at 1003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Really really nice run for eastern jersey and nyc and Long island after the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still solid moderate snow at hour 27 for all of NJ, NYC, and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Newark on east sees 2.5"+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=nam&cycle=06&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip Thanks. Warm initially, but this run turns into something epic very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this is still a massive hit!!!! over 2.00++ QPF for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's a difference of like 50-75 miles difference... For low placement. Pretty close, just moved the CBB 50-75 east... Intesity is almost the same to 0z . 6z initialized at 1005mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still snowing moderately at 30 and 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think we almost got our track now. Gfs will come a little west in my opinion, and the convection feedback crap will hopefully be gone by 12z. Temps are still quite interesting though If the NAM is right we mix longer than I thought we would. But considering it has been too warm with 850's down south, maybe it's a couple degrees too warm on this model run as well. Euro thermals would be ideal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 06Z NAM is a much more realistic approach, but a tad bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Most of Long Island has 3"+ of QPF through 24 hours. I'll take it how much of that would be rain though?? looks like temps crash across LI by around 18hr (00z)... not complaining though, even with half the QPF we're still talking 12"+!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Reassuring to see this model run. Throw into that the weaker initialization (1008 vs. 1003 reality) and some convective feedback issues (seen around hr 12), this thing is coming closer up the coast. Dynamic storm, looking forward to that CCB hammering us and changing us to snow quickly once it gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro temps and NAM QPF would feel great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 06Z NAM is a much more realistic approach, but a tad bit overdone. A tad? Lol this is only at hour 30, still snowing after as well. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamp24030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Long Island can get 40 inches, and I can get 12 inches and i'll be happy as a goat. I REALLY REALLY hope L.I gets into 30" snows, and same for the whole area. These photos are going to truly something else :D :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro temps and NAM QPF would feel great Yeah i'll take that please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.