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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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What makes it likely we will get that warm? What mechanism is there in all of this to warm us up that much with pig cold high to our north? Is it roaring SE winds or something else? I honestly just don't buy that but hey what do I know which is why I am asking you lol.

 

SE and E winds since the ocean is in the 40s. 

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What makes it likely we will get that warm? What mechanism is there in all of this to warm us up that much with pig cold high to our north? Is it roaring SE winds or something else? I honestly just don't buy that but hey what do I know which is why I am asking you lol.

 

Coastal DE and SRN NJ look like they'll get to 41-42 before precip starts, I'm more or less knocking 5 degrees off up this way with less marine influence on a E wind and cooler waters.

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That it's wrong and we should go with a 4km NAM/MM5/JMA Model blend.

Models do not dictate the weather. What we have seen today are some models showing a possible solution. Some are big hits and some are close calls. The thing is all solutions are possible but the exact track and phase is anyone's guess. All we can do is look at the guidance compare with obs and take a blend...

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And if it holds serve?

The answer will be that it only has some of the hi-res models and the NAM with it. Of course that would mean people trust low resolution models over superior hi-resolution models 12 hours out and I say then to them let them go down with that ship then.

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And if it holds serve?

IF...

 

im pretty sure every model except the NAM is east...my gut tells me the EC will be a bit east..not to mention the southern stream disturbance is EAST of some of tonights guidance (Baroclinic Instability posted this in the NE thread)

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I doubt the Euro goes east that much when it's been this rock steady for multiple runs. People need to take a chill pill. Expect the rain/mix for a while along the coast, but look at the dynamics and rapid development that occurs with the coastal system. If it happens, the initial warmth really won't be much of a detriment for people along the coast.

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Run of the mill would still be a significant snowstorm in this set up.

Remember just a week ago we were freaking out over whether or not the RGEM showed 0.05" liquid with our clipper.

Perspective.

there is plenty of truth to this comment.... :whistle:

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IF...

 

im pretty sure every model except the NAM is east...my gut tells me the EC will be a bit east..not to mention the southern stream disturbance is EAST of some of tonights guidance (Baroclinic Instability posted this in the NE thread)

It's only east of the NAM. It's west of all the other models' depictions at 0z. Water vapor map proves this.

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