Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Mt holly going 1-4. Best chance of 4 from 95-south/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And this is why the JMA is terrible. Still one of the wetter models out there but that's what a 300-400 mile eastward shift in one run inside of 72hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Mt holly going 1-4. Best chance of 4 from 95-south/east I saw 1-3 in the disco and also them mentioned the possibility of the northwest side of this system getting screwed..something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And this is why the JMA is terrible. Still one of the wetter models out there but that's what a 300-400 mile eastward shift in one run inside of 72hrs? Yeah, idc what the rankings say, I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 I saw 1-3 in the disco and also them mentioned the possibility of the northwest side of this system getting screwed..something to watch 1-4 in the latest briefing on Facebook page. There will be a screw zone as stuff transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah, idc what the rankings say, I don't like it. FWIW it was the very first model to bring back Boxing Day, but it's been terrible as of lately. The fact that it now agrees with the GFS gives me even less overall confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 I saw 1-3 in the disco and also them mentioned the possibility of the northwest side of this system getting screwed..something to watch They also feel dry air will not be a issue, waa will get light snow going quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I just have this funny feeling that the 18z GFS is going to make it really close and F*CK with us. Give us just enough hope to keep the holding on just to take it away at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 They also feel dry air will not be a issue, waa will get light snow going quickly. The problem probably won't be getting the snow going, it's going to be that for western zones, at least out by me, the precip shield is going to be weakening as it approaches as the coastal takes over. Then the coastal is likely going to be a complete miss north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Through hr 27 S/W looks slightly sharper to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z RGEM looks pretty decent at 48 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hr 48 light to mod snow from central Michigan to West Virginia Hr 51 light snow from st college to dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like some improvements at 500mb on the 18z GFS through 45 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hr 54 light snow for area. Light to moderate all of Pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hr 57 mod snow for area. Costal developing right of nj coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hr 1008 just se of Long Island. Gets going to late. Still light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Definitly going to be a wetter run. Edit: Still showing 0.10-0.25" but probably would have been more if a model like the NAM showed the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 .10+ for everyone this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Definitly going to be a wetter run. Pretty much the same maybe a bit worse from city west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS looks goodhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like the GFS is getting a faster interaction going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The primary almost tracks into Clevland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's quicker and further nw. Hopefully that trend continues for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The primary almost tracks into Clevland. Also looks like the trough is sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like the GFS is getting a faster interaction going. It almost phases at hr 45 and if that were to occur it would make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hopefully the interaction takes place a little faster so the low can get going sooner. SE Mass could get a decent event out of a solution like this GFS. But for the rest of us, still a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It almost phases at hr 45 and if that were to occur it would make a huge difference. Going no need a small miricale to get more than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hopefully the interaction takes place a little faster so the low can get going sooner. SE Mass could get a decent event out of a solution like this GFS. But for the rest of us, still a little too late. Well the good news is there is still time, but the bad news is there is still time meaning we could get more or barely anything. Right now the gfs is pretty solid to me and I would gladly take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Going no need a small miricale to get more than 2" No you don't. Right now, 1-3 inches is a good call areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hopefully the interaction takes place a little faster so the low can get going sooner. SE Mass could get a decent event out of a solution like this GFS. But for the rest of us, still a little too late. I think eastern areas will pull off a solid advisory event in our cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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