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Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13


Allsnow

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Light snowfall according to Upton. They said any small adjustments will mean a lot.

 

 

Upton

 

 

Models then continue to show more of progressive storm system Friday night into Saturday. The lack of phasing between shortwave energy moving in from the west...with a shortwave diving down from Canada is resulting in a low pressure center moving from the middle Atlantic coast to a location south and east of the 40n/70w benchmark. With a track as such...precipitation type from this system is expected to be all snow. The amount of quantitative precipitation forecast is still a little uncertain...but enough to warrant keeping at least low-end likely probability of precipitation instead of dropping probability of precipitation down into the chance category. With the shortwave energy moving in from the west still not yet adequately sampled with the 00z model run...there is still a chance that the timing of this shortwave could be adjusted to have a better chance in future runs of phasing with the shortwave pivoting down from Canada. At this point however...it is beginning to look like this phasing...if occurring at all...would be too late for a significant storm over here. Quantitative precipitation forecast forecast was a blend of HPC guidance...along with GFS and European model (ecmwf). A light snowfall event is therefore anticipated at this time...focused on Friday night.

 




			
		
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Through 48 the southern disturbance is now more north and juiced over TN on the NAM and there is definitely a bit more amplification overall across the OH/TN valley region but its again....marginal as hell

Another sheared out/crap system that can't amplify due to the fast flow and poor NAO. Until the flow can slow down and more blocking can appear, this is what I think we're in for-cold/dry, warm/cutter.

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I think Snow88 might have posted that yesterday. I would love that. But it doesn't have any other model guidance to support it.

 

 

I think Snow88 might have posted that yesterday. I would love that. But it doesn't have any other model guidance to support it.

Nonsense.   It is backed by the Emperor.   The 'yen' could use some support too.

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