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HurricaneJosh

Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

2,249 posts in this topic

There might be some interest next week as well as lower pressures in the Western Gulf and a mid level low moves W, S of New Orleans beneath the Ridge toward Texas/Mexico.

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There might be some interest next week as well as lower pressures in the Western Gulf and a mid level low moves W, S of New Orleans beneath the Ridge toward Texas/Mexico.

 

I must say, using GEFS spaghetti just as a general indicator, they have backed off in the number of members that show anything of interest before the end of June.  93L was strongly suggested at almost two weeks in advance by the GEFS, so it does have some value.  I, personally, an waiting for early July based on what I have seen on this forum.

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Not saying the models are on la-la-land, since it's well known their rather poor performance during spring...but they have been a bit too warm bullish lately.

 

nino_plumes_public_s4!3!plumes!201304!chnino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201304!

nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201305!nino_plumes_public_s4!3!plumes!201305!ch

OTOH we are past spring, and there's a little less divergence in the plumes distribution for June.

 

It would be a departure from recent years which have featured lower pressures across the basin. The last year

with more extensive above normal high pressures was 2003. That JAS Nino 3.4 was +0.4 on the updated

CPC data set. So sometimes all you need is neutral warm approaching weak Nino for an atmospheric response.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

[attachment=100091:612.png]

 

[attachment=100092:03.png]

 

[attachment=100094:track.gif]

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0z Euro and 06z GFS are very much on top of each other wrt 93L. I expect some continued organization up to landfall in about 4-6 hours, then getting into the GoM very close to Cd del Carmen and then slowly move WNW to NW up to landfall around 21N as TS Barry in 3-4 days or so.

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While the topic is on the ENSO, I had a question. After SSTs in the equatorial Pacific warm to El Nino threshold, is there is a lag time in the atmosphere? I've seen a lot of pro. meteorologists say there isn't one, but I've also seen many say there is.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.   THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS
INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF TRACKS.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 16.2N  87.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 16.9N  89.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/1200Z 18.0N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/0000Z 18.8N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H  19/1200Z 19.3N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  20/1200Z 19.7N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  21/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

 

[attachment=100096:06162013 TD 2 10 AM CDT 145641W5_NL_sm.gif]

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Strongest convection appears to be confined well to the south of the center, near where the wave-trough axis is interacting with a sea breeze.  Core is completely non-existent.

 

[attachment=100099:20130617.1353.f18.x.pct.02LTWO.30kts-1008mb-160N-871W.94pc.jpg]

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While the topic is on the ENSO, I had a question. After SSTs in the equatorial Pacific warm to El Nino threshold, is there is a lag time in the atmosphere? I've seen a lot of pro. meteorologists say there isn't one, but I've also seen many say there is.

 

 Analyses I've done of the negative correlation of SST anomaly of Nino 3.4 (which is used to designate El Nino) and MDR activity suggests no lag normally. Furthermore, if anything, there seems to often be the opposite! Here is my theory about this: the drop in SOI tends to lead the 3.4 SST anom. rise by about 2 months or so on avg. per my analyses. Being that the SOI is a pretty decent indicator of the present atmospheric patterns in the eq. Pacific and that it tends to lead the SST changes, it is intuitive to me that a -SOI could negatively influence the MDR activity fairly quickly and not wait the entire two or so months for the SST's to react upward.

 

Edit: The SOI has predominantly remained solidly positive. As long as that remains the case, the chance for El Nino developing this fall will remain low imo. I'll be following it as usual.

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What was the name of that tropical storm a few years ago that kept hitting Florida over and over and over and looked terrible on radar and sat. presentations?

Fay

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I'm surprised by the lack of discussion on our second Atlantic Tropical Depression. Except for land interaction, it seems rather well organzied. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting Barry out of this.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 88.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATER ON TUESDAY.  THE
DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

WIND...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

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The NHC isn't optimistic at all about this system reaching the Bay of Campeche. Would be a nice storm if it could gain some latitude. Oh well.

 

 Analyses I've done of the negative correlation of SST anomaly of Nino 3.4 (which is used to designate El Nino) and MDR activity suggests no lag normally. Furthermore, if anything, there seems to often be the opposite! Here is my theory about this: the drop in SOI tends to lead the 3.4 SST anom. rise by about 2 months or so on avg. per my analyses. Being that the SOI is a pretty decent indicator of the present atmospheric patterns in the eq. Pacific and that it tends to lead the SST changes, it is intuitive to me that a -SOI could negatively influence the MDR activity fairly quickly and not wait the entire two or so months for the SST's to react upward.

 

Edit: The SOI has predominantly remained solidly positive. As long as that remains the case, the chance for El Nino developing this fall will remain low imo. I'll be following it as usual.

Thanks.

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With the Tropical Atlantic more stable, I would probably look closer to the Western Caribbean

for development as the MJO is forecast to move into phase 1 in early July.

 

[attachment=100157:NEW.gif]

 

[attachment=100158:ts_al_tat_THDV.gif]

 

[attachment=100159:f384.jpg]

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With the Tropical Atlantic more stable, I would probably look closer to the Western Caribbean

for development as the MJO is forecast to move into phase 1 in early July.

 

attachicon.gifNEW.gif

 

attachicon.gifts_al_tat_THDV.gif

 

attachicon.giff384.jpg

 

 

I take it the super-imposed waves on the above instability versus season (even if we're clearly lagging behind the seasonal mean curve, which probably is not an encouraging factor for ACE) have a reason.  I see bigger dips that appear nearly monthly, which I'm guessing could be MJO related, and smaller amplitude waves that seem to occur about twice a month.

 

Smart people please advise.

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Thanks for your thoughts.. with regards to the state of ENSO, I'd be careful here. While the state of the MJO is to favor increased lower tropospheric easterly flow over the East Pacific which should force some upwelling in the East Pac and bring some colder waters to the surface, it will likely just be a sub-seasonal variation.  If you look sub-surface, a downwelling ocean Kelvin wave is currently bringing warm waters from the West Pac warm pool towards the East, acting to deepen the thermocline over the central Pacific. Much of the negative SST anomalies sub-surface have been erased and are trending warmer than average. Further, the current location of the MJO would favor enhanced low-level westerlies on the equator (>15 m/s totals!)  I'm expecting the warming trend to continue, and eventually bring some positive SST skin anomalies to the East Pacific with time.   There are often times where down-welling oceanic Kelvin waves couple with atmospheric convection and amplify the process. We are in a time where the atmosphere is superimposed with the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave and could be one of those times where the ocean is talking with the atmosphere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

With regards to the current state of the Global Wind Oscillation, we did see a pretty good drop into negative AAM values, which is consistent with a La Nina type atmosphere. However, recently atmospheric angular momentum is back on the rise.  I'm not really sure if AAM will continue to trend up, or will plunge back down, but the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave phased (temporarily) with the MJO suggests there is potential for the gradual increase of AAM. To be seen!

 

 

 

I agree that the atmosphere-ocean is nicely coupled right now and the small-scale waves have amplified the wave 1 response in the divergence anomalies. There has also been a downwelling KW moving across the equatorial Pacific ahead of this West Pacific/Indonesian enhancement (the IOD-ENSO system did tighten up which led to this coupling along with the downwelling +QBO regime). But why would this increasing OHC period be any different than the one during the spring which warmed the ENSO regions for a while before cooling again? I guess what I'm getting at is I don't feel a strong enough El Niño-like warming will be able to develop to be much of a factor shear-wise this season. If we do warm up, it could actually increase the potential for a central gulf-Fl hit, as snowflake alluded to in the original post.

 

In fact, a warm neutral ASO with an all around negative Indian Ocean signal in both dipoles, warm Atlantic and neutral PDO could be quite the combination for landfall potential.

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The Euro seems to have the correct idea this month from the April  forecast for higher pressures north of 

the Caribbean with the more positive NAO this June than recent years.

 

[attachment=100215:South32America_tercile32summary_mean32sea32level32pressure_132month.gif]

 

[attachment=100216:2013.gif]

 

[attachment=100232:NAO.gif]

 

 

 

 

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Will probably have to watch the Atlantic in early July for development. GFS, CMC, and ECMWF are already developing cyclones in the eastern Pacific by the end of the month.

 

GFS, as usual, is probably overdoing the intensity of the MJO pulse. But it's still strong.

 

QerJicM.gif

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HRD re-analysis of 1941-1945 is in!

 

The Atlantic basin hurricane seasons of 1941 to 1945 have been officially reanalyzed. The revised database is available here. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes in these years include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944 a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall.  Details of the data and methodology of the reanalysis is available here.

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It's actually quite comical how poor the GFS is (and has been) at predicting the MJO

 

[attachment=100233:NCPE_phase_21m_small 17_40_44.gif]

 

ECMWF looks much more reasonable. I'm very interested to hear what Mr. Ventrice has to say about the upcoming MJO wave, but the models are definitely hinting at a rather decent pulse moving through. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw two or so tropical cyclones form in the early to mid July period, with one of them possibly being a nice red meat cyclone. 

 

[attachment=100234:ECMF_phase_51m_small 17_40_44.gif]

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Not just a matter of initialization or lower resolution on the GFS ensemble super MJO amplification, as agreement between members is quite high.  Those are the usual reasons given for performance differences vis-à-vis the Euro. 

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It's actually quite comical how poor the GFS is at predicting the MJO

 

"Super Amplification" 

 

attachicon.gifNCPE_phase_21m_small 17_40_44.gif

 

ECMWF looks much more reasonable. I'm very interested to hear what Mr. Ventrice has to say about the upcoming MJO wave, but the models are definitely hinting at a rather decent pulse moving through. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw two or so tropical cyclones form in the early to mid July period, with one of them possibly being a nice red meat cyclone. 

 

attachicon.gifECMF_phase_51m_small 17_40_44.gif

 

 

That may be a significant part of why the Euro does so much better in the tropics. 

 

[attachment=100235:cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2TRO.png]

 

[attachment=100236:cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2TRO.png]

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