Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Chaser25973]

What are the analogs for 2 or more named storms in June?

[am19psu]

What are the analogs for 2 or more named storms in June?

Not really related to post July activity

[icebreaker5221]

This thing near Puerto Rico is actually somewhat interesting.  Ground stations south of the precip all reporting easterly winds, so definitely not a surface circulation, but there's definitely some sort of MCV going on at the mid levels.  Looks like it's under a region of strong UL divergence courtesy a TUTT to its NW, particularly evident in the CIMSS AMVs. 

 

Doesn't realistically have much future, but I've seen NHC give 0% lemons for less interesting features.

 

[wxmeddler]

This thing near Puerto Rico is actually somewhat interesting.  Ground stations south of the precip all reporting easterly winds, so definitely not a surface circulation, but there's definitely some sort of MCV going on at the mid levels.  Looks like it's under a region of strong UL divergence courtesy a TUTT to its NW, particularly evident in the CIMSS AMVs. 

 

Doesn't realistically have much future, but I've seen NHC give 0% lemons for less interesting features.

 

Loaded up TJUA and TSJU just for kicks and there is a weak circulation at 850-700mb, call it +20/-10 over 20 miles. The VWP shows very little in the way of shear (above the easterlies) and it's definitely associated with a tropical wave. I doubt there is any surface reflection in the wind/pressure field though, the easterlies are 25 kts and there isn't any deep convection to speak of. Still, it's semi-interesting.

[hurricaneman]

Years that had 2 or more named systems before july and their stats since 1980

 

2012 had 4\1\0 which ended up 19\10\2

 

2007 had 2\0\0 and ended up 15\6\2

 

2005 had 2\0\0 and ended up 28\15\7

 

2003 had 2\0\0 and ended up 16\7\3

 

1997 had 2\0\0 and ended up 8\3\1

 

1986 had 2\0\0 and ended up 6\4\0

 

1982 had 2\0\0 and ended up 6\2\1

 

1981 had 2\0\0 and ended up 12\7\3

 

Average 15.71\6.75\2.38 or 16\7\2 rounded, but as seen here quick June starts could cause a weak sauce season or epic season so one will probably not know which way its going to go until August

[Ed Lizard]

CIMMS 850, 700 and 500 mb vorticity product show it is pretty well sheared with the hint of 850 mb vort well West of the 500 mb vort, but it should be moving into a region of lower shear.

 

No model support, not even from NavGem.

[GaWx]

Years that had 2 or more named systems before july and their stats since 1980

 

2012 had 4\1\0 which ended up 19\10\2

 

2007 had 2\0\0 and ended up 15\6\2

 

2005 had 2\0\0 and ended up 28\15\7

 

2003 had 2\0\0 and ended up 16\7\3

 

1997 had 2\0\0 and ended up 8\3\1

 

1986 had 2\0\0 and ended up 6\4\0

 

1982 had 2\0\0 and ended up 6\2\1

 

1981 had 2\0\0 and ended up 12\7\3

 

Average 15.71\6.75\2.38 or 16\7\2 rounded, but as seen here quick June starts could cause a weak sauce season or epic season so one will probably not know which way its going to go until August

 

 There actually is somewhat of a pattern here. The three with the lowest numbers were all oncoming El Nino seasons: 1997, 1986, 1982. Oncoming El Nino seasons actually have higher than average numbers of June storms, due, I assume to more energy reaching south into the GOM/W Caribbean/off the SE coast. For July+, Nino #'s are below average . These three Ninos here averaged only 5 NS during July+. In stark contrast, the five non-Ninos averaged a whopping 16 NS July+!

[Ed Lizard]

 There actually is somewhat of a pattern here. The three with the lowest numbers were all oncoming El Nino seasons: 1997, 1986, 1982. Oncoming El Nino seasons actually have higher than average numbers of June storms, due, I assume to more energy reaching south into the GOM/W Caribbean/off the SE coast. For July+, Nino #'s are below average . These three Ninos here averaged only 5 NS during July+. In stark contrast, the five non-Ninos averaged a whopping 16 NS July+!

 

 

I still remember 1997 well (I worked in the GOMEX then), and the big difference, speaking of developing Nino seasons, between now and then that is obvious on its face is the two June systems this year originated well into the tropics.  All four 1997 early season storms originated outside the tropics.  Danny, the most interesting, developed from a mid level disturbance that moved through Lafayette on the way to the Gulf with an awesome lightning display, and local TV met Rob Perillo was all over the tropical development of that system.

[bluewave]

I still remember 1997 well (I worked in the GOMEX then), and the big difference, speaking of developing Nino seasons, between now and then that is obvious on its face is the two June systems this year originated well into the tropics.  All four 1997 early season storms originated outside the tropics.  Danny, the most interesting, developed from a mid level disturbance that moved through Lafayette on the way to the Gulf with an awesome lightning display, and local TV met Rob Perillo was all over the tropical development of that system.

 

I can remember watching the late, great John Hope on TWC discuss how the storm was picking up steam as it moved

off the VA Coast. The was the highlight of the whole 1997 season here in the States. It was the coolest TC

comeback until Erin surprised everyone over OK.

 

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/danny_88d_anim.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

As others have said, probably not to worry about...but still interesting.

 

[Floydbuster]

Hopefully we can waste some names and get to the ones that will matter. Chantal? Dorian? Nahhh

[Will - Rutgers]

As others have said, probably not to worry about...but still interesting.

 

Bayamon and points west have been getting absolutely hammered with rain.

[andyhb]

Hopefully we can waste some names and get to the ones that will matter. Chantal? Dorian? Nahhh

 

Dorian is a badass name if you ask me.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm looking out for Erin and Ingrid. Those are the two that sound most threatening to me.

[Floydbuster]

I'm looking out for Erin and Ingrid. Those are the two that sound most threatening to me.

 

Some epic sounding names were used up during the 2000s. Isidore, Fabian, Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Felix, Gustav and Frances have all been used up. Surprisingly, looking at the name lists, I've been tracking hurricanes now so long that the name lists have been recycled to where just about every name is memorable. I remember watching Tropical Storm Barry as it nearly became a hurricane while making landfall in the Panhandle of Florida in August 2001. Not only is it the name of our current storm, but it was also used in 2007.

 

Some of this years names just don't have the right ring to them.

 

"Extremely dangerous Jerry headed for Gulf Coast"

 

Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle and Humberto sound pretty cool though and they should be the names we arrive at in the heat of the season.

[HurricaneJosh]

HRD re-analysis of 1941-1945 is in!

 

The Atlantic basin hurricane seasons of 1941 to 1945 have been officially reanalyzed. The revised database is available here. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes in these years include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944 a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall.  Details of the data and methodology of the reanalysis is available here.

The downgrade of the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 was a good call. It was always grossly overestimated-- partly because of some silly report of a sustained wind of 117 kt in Cape Henry, VA-- a reading which was not quality-controlled and not representative of the cyclone's intensity at that time.

The reanalysis researchers had initially suggested 95 kt as the landfall intensity in NY, but they lowered it further-- to 90 kt-- and that seems right to me.

By the way, this cyclone devastated the Jersey Shore and remains one of the biggest impacts for that region.

[bluewave]

The downgrade of the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 was a good call. It was always grossly overestimated-- partly because of some silly report of a sustained wind of 117 kt in Cape Henry, VA-- a reading which was not quality-controlled and not representative of the cyclone's intensity at that time.

The reanalysis researchers had initially suggested 95 kt as the landfall intensity in NY, but they lowered it further-- to 90 kt-- and that seems right to me.

By the way, this cyclone devastated the Jersey Shore and remains one of the biggest impacts for that region.

 

I agree with the downgrade of the 1944 Hurricane also. I read that it struck at high tide and was similar in impact

to Sandy around Atlantic City. But further north along the Jersey Shore and Western Long Island, Sandy set the new

benchmark for coastal flooding. NWS Mount Holly recently updated their tidal impact tables.

 

Atlantic City

 

 

Sandy Hook

 

[Superstorm93]

The ECMWF and UKMET have both been pretty persistent on bringing the MJO into some pretty favorable phases for not only Caribbean/GOM tropical development, but also possible MDR tropical cyclone genesis once we move into July. It's very far out there now, but any MDR activity would be interesting given the persistent ridging that could steer a cyclone into the Caribbean and possibly even the CONUS. The ECMWF ensembles are less amped than the ECMWF operational with the MJO, but the way things look as of right now, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw 2-3 tropical systems form in the late June to mid July period, with at least one being a true "red meat" cyclone. The GFS and the GEFS are portraying one of the strongest 8/1 phases I've seen in a while. Point is, July could be interesting. 

 

 

[HM]

I'm only posting this to make us think about global circulation a little bit deeper. Sometimes I feel like we become a little robotic and ubiquitous when reading these MJO charts (they are, after all, very convenient). Barry's presence is great example of why looking a little deeper doesn't hurt.

 

 

During the subsidence phase of the MJO, the jets move poleward and become a bit weaker (the waves become shorter). The Hadley Cell broadens and also weakens after a while as South America's uplift chills out. For a while, we had a pretty uniform wave 1 appearance to the divergence anomalies. The ERW / KW, however, are always ongoing and moved through the Atlantic over the last few days. The combination of their positioning/passage and the relaxed, poleward jet, made just the right conditions for the climatologically favored areas.  

 

 

The problem with the onset of the MJO is it will excite the E PAC ITCZ (vortex rolling feedback won't happen right away) and the South American Uplift. The jets will move equatorward (they have been across Asia and will continue to do so over the next 10 days as well as extend into the Pacific. Some very strong wind will be arriving at 200mb in the medium range). Between the excited Hadley Cell (strengthening/becoming more narrow) and possible outflow issues, sometimes the initial shot from the MJO isn't all that favorable. It can be quite hostile should the PV accumulation manifest as an E PAC cyclone.

 

 

It is possible that any July development might be a little after the initial phase 8-1 orbit (an exiting phase 1 into phase 2 is more preferred). Just something to think about...

[Ed Lizard]

Don't know if it related to the MJO and the Hadley cell, but Euro shows at 7-10 days strengthening low level Easterlies in the Caribbean, exceeding 15 m/s (~30 knots) in much of the Caribbean, which would suggest the Caribbean would be increasingly hostile for development after this time next week, at least for a few days.

[andyhb]

Looks like one of the first GFS long range Gulf fantasies with the 00z run tonight.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like one of the first GFS long range Gulf fantasies with the 00z run tonight.

12z and 06z GFS (to a lesser extent) had as well. 6z went into Mexico, 12z went into Louisiana, 18z kept the disturbance too close to the Yucatan to develop, and the 00z sent it to Florida while bringing the timeline of development up (low first forms in ~174 hours).

 

Appears to develop from one of the waves in the eastern Atlantic. Something to watch.

[metalicwx366]

Actually it has shown that with each run today except for the 18z. Development starts at 174 hours right near where tropical storm Barry formed. GFS snuck out the development of Barry from this far out as well. Fast start to the season this year, unlike last year where Debby was the first storm to develop in the deep tropics.

Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Xparent BlueTapatalk 2

[bluewave]

It's beginning to look like any development in early July could at least initially be a

challenged one that takes a while to get going.

 

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

It's actually quite comical how poor the GFS is (and has been) at predicting the MJO

 

NCPE_phase_21m_small 17_40_44.gif

 

ECMWF looks much more reasonable. I'm very interested to hear what Mr. Ventrice has to say about the upcoming MJO wave, but the models are definitely hinting at a rather decent pulse moving through. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw two or so tropical cyclones form in the early to mid July period, with one of them possibly being a nice red meat cyclone. 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small 17_40_44.gif

 

 

The ECMWF and UKMET have both been pretty persistent on bringing the MJO into some pretty favorable phases for not only Caribbean/GOM tropical development, but also possible MDR tropical cyclone genesis once we move into July. It's very far out there now, but any MDR activity would be interesting given the persistent ridging that could steer a cyclone into the Caribbean and possibly even the CONUS. The ECMWF ensembles are less amped than the ECMWF operational with the MJO, but the way things look as of right now, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw 2-3 tropical systems form in the late June to mid July period, with at least one being a true "red meat" cyclone. The GFS and the GEFS are portraying one of the strongest 8/1 phases I've seen in a while. Point is, July could be interesting. 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

mwr-d-10-05028.1-f15.jpeg

 

 

I'm only posting this to make us think about global circulation a little bit deeper. Sometimes I feel like we become a little robotic and ubiquitous when reading these MJO charts (they are, after all, very convenient). Barry's presence is great example of why looking a little deeper doesn't hurt.

 

 

During the subsidence phase of the MJO, the jets move poleward and become a bit weaker (the waves become shorter). The Hadley Cell broadens and also weakens after a while as South America's uplift chills out. For a while, we had a pretty uniform wave 1 appearance to the divergence anomalies. The ERW / KW, however, are always ongoing and moved through the Atlantic over the last few days. The combination of their positioning/passage and the relaxed, poleward jet, made just the right conditions for the climatologically favored areas.  

 

 

The problem with the onset of the MJO is it will excite the E PAC ITCZ (vortex rolling feedback won't happen right away) and the South American Uplift. The jets will move equatorward (they have been across Asia and will continue to do so over the next 10 days as well as extend into the Pacific. Some very strong wind will be arriving at 200mb in the medium range). Between the excited Hadley Cell (strengthening/becoming more narrow) and possible outflow issues, sometimes the initial shot from the MJO isn't all that favorable. It can be quite hostile should the PV accumulation manifest as an E PAC cyclone.

 

 

It is possible that any July development might be a little after the initial phase 8-1 orbit (an exiting phase 1 into phase 2 is more preferred). Just something to think about...

 

Hi all,

 

I have been favoring a solution consisting of an MJO passage during late June, early July with a robust amplitude that would certainly favor a more conducive atmosphere for tropical cyclogenesis over the East Pac and Atlantic Basin. Every MJO index that I am aware of is indicating an MJO event > 1 sigma, approaching 2 sigma currently located over the Pacific. 

 

The standard real-time multivariate Index suggests the MJO is in Phase 6, located over the West Pacific. I would actually argue that this event is currently centered about the Date Line, indicative of a favorable atmosphere for developing West Pacific TCs.

 

 

 

A space-time longitude plot reveals the bulk of the "MJO" signal is in fact a strong atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave, which is not propagating the standard MJO-like 5-6 m/s, but is a bit faster in the range of 15-20 m/s.

 

 

VP200 anomalies (shaded) with MJO filtered VP200 anomalies (contoured):

 

 

 

VP200 anomalies (shaded) with KELVIN filtered VP200 anomalies (contoured):

 

 

 

 

The overall transition of the large-scale state over the Atlantic should be pretty quick here, where I'm thinking a TC could first spin up over the Caribbean/GOM during the 6-10 day time frame (+1 GFS), but also there is some increased chances of the rapid onset of the Sahelian phase of the West African Monsoon (mean low-frequency rainfall occurs 5-10N over West Africa) during this CCKW/MJO passage. Watch for the rapid shift of the solid contours up to the 5-10N latitude band in the upcoming two weeks!

 

 

 

 

 

This suggests to me there is some potential for multiple TCs to spin up during late June through July 10th, as there could be an uptick in African easterly wave activity that could seed another Atlantic TC downstream. Strong atmospheric Kelvin waves coupled with the active MJO signal can act to convectively initiate African easterly waves directly following and during the passage of the active Kelvin envelope.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/documents/publications/Ventrice_Thorcroft_2013.pdf

 

 

I have recently created a new index to monitor AEW activity, but beware the GFS tends to struggle with correctly representing AEW activity!! 

 

 

 

 

 

With the MJO likely to push back over the Indian Ocean and begin the typical summer northward propagation of enhanced convection over India, I too think there is potential for  a hurricane-level type storm here. Will be an interesting period!

 

 

And to comment on HM's view here... He is absolutely correct with regards to using the MJO as a TC-predictor. The MJO sets up a low-frequency environment to when a TC could potentially spin up. This doesn't necessarily mean that a TC will always spin up in phase 1.. it really depends on the location of the Kelvin wave relative to the MJO signal.. AEW activity also plays a role here.

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00Z GFS is showing a decent cyclone moving into the FL Panhandle around Day 10. I know it's fantasy range, but still kinda interestin'. Let's see if the feature persists.

[HurricaneJosh]

Oh, and what's with the random Loser Lemon over the Carolinas tonight? Huh?

[Superstorm93]

Well thats a nice little surprise. Technically this is 94L, but there's no TCWEB file on it (yet) 

 

Not enough time to fully spin up though 

 

TXNT26 KNES 220623
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 22/0545Z

C. 33.7N

D. 78.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A SMALL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE BORDER OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LESS THAN 3/4 DEGREE
FROM WARM TOP CONVECTION WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5 BUT INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO T1.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

 

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Whoa, weird.

[Eyewall2005]

If this overall pattern holds i think the southeast could be in for a long season. Thoughts?