Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[HurricaneJosh]

Since the New Year is just about upon us, I thought I'd start the thread that we all know and love.

So... Any early thoughts Re: 2013?

The big question on everyone's mind: Will the USA break its incredible no-major-hurricane streak? While it's statistically and scientifically incorrect to say it, I'm going to say it: We're overdue! So get over it.

Our current major-less streak is 7 consecutive seasons (2006-2012). In case you were wondering, the USA hasn't gotten this long without a 100-kt landfall since the Civil War Era! Yep-- back then, the USA went 8 consecutive seasons: 1861-1868. So if we go without a major in 2013, we'll tie the old record. Yikes.

But don't forget: before this lull, the USA had two devastating seasons with many major landfalls (Charley 2004, Ivan 2004, Jeanne 2004, Dennis 2005, Katrina 2005, Rita 2005, Wilma 2005). So it's feast or famine, I suppose.

____

Re: the last major to hit the USA.... I have very fond memories of it. I chased Hurricane Wilma on Florida's Gulf Coast-- in a tiny, exposed fishing village called Everglades City, very close to the landfall point. What I remember most about Wilma was that the backside was much more severe than the leading side-- surprisingly so. You can see it in my video: we really got pounded after the large eye passed. And since the cyclone was crossing Florida so fast, those backside winds swept in with alarming speed:

[free_man]

9/3/0

[wxmx]

Too early to speculate about many details...but something is getting clearer...+TNA is looking very likely, thus ENSO neutral or cold will almost assure an active season.

[Eyewall2005]

Too early to speculate about many details...but something is getting clearer...+TNA is looking very likely, thus ENSO neutral or cold will almost assure an active season.

Active or not lets hope the recurve streak does not continue. Just want some interesting canes south of 25n.

Enough with these sts near newfoundland.

[andyhb]

lol:

[HurricaneJosh]

Too early to speculate about many details...but something is getting clearer...+TNA is looking very likely, thus ENSO neutral or cold will almost assure an active season.

Hopefully it's active in the right way-- i.e., higher-quality systems. This year was a pretty painful illustration of how active doesn't necessarily equal good or interesting.

Active or not lets hope the recurve streak does not continue. Just want some interesting canes south of 25n.

Enough with these sts near newfoundland.

Totally. Can't take it anymore.

[CoastalWx]

Weak Nino?

[CoastalWx]

One thing is for sure...the country "overall" has been dodging some serious landfall bullets. Sandy did a ton of damage, but that will happen when you hit an unprotected, densely populated area. The media goes nuts now with sensationalism and AGW thrown into every storm...just wait until yesteryear comes back ad we go through a series of East Coast and Gulf hits. I can't imagine what things will be like, if the 50s and 60s come back. Oy vey.

[isohume]

The big question on everyone's mind: Will the USA break its incredible no-major-hurricane streak?

Let's hope not.

[HurricaneJosh]

One thing is for sure...the country "overall" has been dodging some serious landfall bullets. Sandy did a ton of damage, but that will happen when you hit an unprotected, densely populated area. The media goes nuts now with sensationalism and AGW thrown into every storm...just wait until yesteryear comes back ad we go through a series of East Coast and Gulf hits. I can't imagine what things will be like, if the 50s and 60s come back. Oy vey.

Agreed. The media goes nuts over climatologically cyclical events, because the media has the historical memory and attention span of a gnat. Like you said, a repeat of the mid-'50s would cause a media meltdown-- and a nuclear-grade event like 1938? lolz

[HurricaneJosh]

Let's hope not.

If you don't have anything interesting to contribute to the thread, don't feel like you have to post. Silence is OK.

[CoastalWx]

Agreed. The media goes nuts over climatologically cyclical events, because the media has the historical memory and attention span of a gnat. Like you said, a repeat of the mid-'50s would cause a media meltdown-- and a nuclear-grade event like 1938? lolz

LOL, I didn't want to say '38 since that seems to conjure up some emotions, but just a series of EC hits.

[HurricaneJosh]

LOL, I didn't want to say '38 since that seems to conjure up some emotions, but just a series of EC hits.

It's so funny the way even a mention of that one needs to be handled with great care. I figured it was OK, since we're not comparing a specific threat to it.

[CoastalWx]

It's so funny the way even a mention of that one needs to be handled with great care. I figured it was OK, since we're not comparing a specific threat to it.

Oh I'm fine with it...but you know what I mean.

Anyways, Should be rather neutral ENSO or so heading into at least late Spring I think. We'll see how it goes from there. Still have a warm/cold/warm look to the ATL right now...from north to south.

[isohume]

If you don't have anything interesting to contribute to the thread, don't feel like you have to post. Silence is OK.

Haha...to me another year of no landfalling majors would be interesting. It doesn't have to be dramatic for me to find it interesting. But that's just me.

[HurricaneJosh]

Haha...to me another year of no landfalling majors would be interesting. It doesn't have to be dramatic for me to find it interesting. But that's just me.

It is just you.

I felt we'd been getting along very well these past few months, and I'd prefer to keep it that way-- so perhaps we can avoid unnecessary tensions.

[Ed Lizard]

Haha...to me another year of no landfalling majors would be interesting. It doesn't have to be dramatic for me to find it interesting. But that's just me.

I'm ready for a Florida major, preferably daylight hours. They can handle it. They won't need a Bruce Springsteen concert to recover, road network is good, terrain is flat, and while I appreciate all the good stuff i-Cyclone brings from Mexico, well, Florida.

[isohume]

It is just you.

I felt we'd been getting along very well these past few months, and I'd prefer to keep it that way-- so perhaps we can avoid unnecessary tensions.

lol, I'm not adding tension. Just saying I find the prospect of a non/normal trop pattern interesting and welcomed, which I do.

[Ed Lizard]

OK, I paid a little extra for added upload space in 2013, so I can upload saved .gif loops of the SSD site of massive hurricanes with tight cores bearing down on MLB in August/September. I prefer the psychedelic tie-dye "rainbow" IR enhanced loops, personally.

Added bonus, recurves in Alabama/Georgia after landfall and drought relief.

[hurricaneman]

I think that there will be recurves in 2013, but for those who do hurricane chasing I do believe that you will be happy and I do believe that a couple of majors will make landfall, one area I'm looking at is South Florida to the Florida panhandle and the other is the Carolinas especially South Carolina

[Srain]

9/3/0

Can you provide some reasoning behind your 'prediction'?

[calm_days]

This is a good time for this topic. What we see happening before the season in the Atlantic will give many clues about the Atlantic itself, if we can decode them. The nature of circulation as a whole in the North Atlantic seems to have been very distinct this year.

As winter transitions to spring, Atlantic lows and overall patterns have the potential to be somewhat quiet, more organized, or, atypically organized.

[Ed Lizard]

Can you provide some reasoning behind your 'prediction'?

IIRC, I think the Klotzback/Gray (sp?) qualitative December outlook (they don't do quantity anymore this early, skill too low) is ballpark 60% chance of normal to above normal.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Positive TNA. Negative NAO. Below average MSLP so far, as well as well below normal wind shear. Cool neutral in the Pacific.

At least 15 named storms, I think.

[Ground Scouring]

Are there any early indicators that the Bermuda High / WAR will finally be stronger in 2013? We saw above-average seasons in 2010 and 2011, yet also with numerous recurvatures. In those years, the -NAO was weakly negative and east-based, with a strong Hudson Bay vortex curving most systems east of the CONUS. How does the atmosphere now stack up against 2010 and 2011 at this point, and how does it compare to similar years that saw more U.S. landfalls than what we have seen recently? To me, this is the big question--for three straight years, we have seen 19 named storms, yet no strong U.S. hurricane hits.

[andyhb]

Quality over quantity, please.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Are there any early indicators that the Bermuda High / WAR will finally be stronger in 2013? We saw above-average seasons in 2010 and 2011, yet also with numerous recurvatures. In those years, the -NAO was weakly negative and east-based, with a strong Hudson Bay vortex curving most systems east of the CONUS. How does the atmosphere now stack up against 2010 and 2011 at this point, and how does it compare to similar years that saw more U.S. landfalls than what we have seen recently? To me, this is the big question--for three straight years, we have seen 19 named storms, yet no strong U.S. hurricane hits.

The phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation the winter before the start of the season is usually telling of what the pattern will look like during the peak. In this case, the NAO has been primarily negative, meaning a weaker Bermuda high, but also a displaced one to the west. This is favorable for hurricane landfalls on the United States.

The main reason we haven't seen any significant hurricane hits over the past few years is due to significant troughing across the Northeast. This troughing was replaced with ridging in October of this year, and we all know what happened then.

[Ground Scouring]

Like you said, a repeat of the mid-'50s would cause a media meltdown-- and a nuclear-grade event like 1938? lolz

Given all the hype about the "fiscal cliff" (sorry for the OT analogy) and 1,000,000 more minor things these days, I can think of at least the following similar scenarios--besides an 1815, 1938, 1944, or 1954 redux--which, if not quite "nuclear-grade," would case a media Armageddon today:

1. A reincarnation of Hurricane Donna hitting the Bahamas and SW FL as a Cat-4 before raking the entire EC w/ 'cane winds in most states--just imagine an eye 50-100 mi wide raking NC and then LI as an 85-to-95-kt Cat-2 with a large wind field--in the Northeast, total Sandy-type coverage times 100^30

2. A repeat of the 1932 TX hurricane or Celia in the Gulf--a cyclone going from a TS or a Cat-1 to a top-grade Cat-3 or a Cat-4 within 36 or fewer hours before LF (yes, the '32 'cane actually went from TS to Cat-4 in even less time before hitting Freeport, though Celia took more time)--just place the LF directly over a big TX city like Galveston, Freeport, or Corpus Christi

3. A long-track, CV major that becomes Cat-4 three or more days before hitting the U.S.--like Frances, Isabel, 1926, or 1928--and then comes into S FL as a huge, strong Cat-4 like 1926 or 1928, a full 125-130 kt without the Frances- or Isabel-type implosion this time--eventually, this will happen again

4. A huge, Hugo-sized major hurricane curving toward the Savannah, GA, area, as in 1893 or 1898, with mega-high storm-surge potential over a very wide area--the 1898 hurricane was just like Hugo in size and is GA's only Cat-4 hit, having intensified all the way up to a 115-kt/938-mb LF near Sapelo Island

I keep talking about #3 because, personally, knowing S FL's reputation as the U.S. king of red-meat hits--with TX not far behind--I feel it is statistically the most likely to take a big smack in less time, on a climatological plane, than most other places in the U.S.

[My Weather Today]

Given all the hype about the "fiscal cliff" (sorry for the OT analogy) and 1,000,000 more minor things these days, I can think of at least the following similar scenarios--besides an 1815, 1938, 1944, or 1954 redux--which, if not quite "nuclear-grade," would case a media Armageddon today:

1. A reincarnation of Hurricane Donna hitting the Bahamas and SW FL as a Cat-4 before raking the entire EC w/ 'cane winds in most states--just imagine an eye 50-100 mi wide raking NC and then LI as an 85-to-95-kt Cat-2 with a large wind field--in the Northeast, total Sandy-type coverage times 100^30

2. A repeat of the 1932 TX hurricane or Celia in the Gulf--a cyclone going from a TS or a Cat-1 to a top-grade Cat-3 or a Cat-4 within 36 or fewer hours before LF (yes, the '32 'cane actually went from TS to Cat-4 in even less time before hitting Freeport, though Celia took more time)--just place the LF directly over a big TX city like Galveston, Freeport, or Corpus Christi

3. A long-track, CV major that becomes Cat-4 three or more days before hitting the U.S.--like Frances, Isabel, 1926, or 1928--and then comes into S FL as a huge, strong Cat-4 like 1926 or 1928, a full 125-130 kt without the Frances- or Isabel-type implosion this time--eventually, this will happen again

4. A huge, Hugo-sized major hurricane curving toward the Savannah, GA, area, as in 1893 or 1898, with mega-high storm-surge potential over a very wide area--the 1898 hurricane was just like Hugo in size and is GA's only Cat-4 hit, having intensified all the way up to a 115-kt/938-mb LF near Sapelo Island

I keep talking about #3 because, personally, knowing S FL's reputation as the U.S. king of red-meat hits--with TX not far behind--I feel it is statistically the most likely to take a big smack in less time, on a climatological plane, than most other places in the U.S.

I had to edit your post for you since you accidentally added in a few thoughts that would be a total nightmare for this area.

[HurricaneJosh]

Given all the hype about the "fiscal cliff" (sorry for the OT analogy) and 1,000,000 more minor things these days, I can think of at least the following similar scenarios--besides an 1815, 1938, 1944, or 1954 redux--which, if not quite "nuclear-grade," would case a media Armageddon today:

1. A reincarnation of Hurricane Donna hitting the Bahamas and SW FL as a Cat-4 before raking the entire EC w/ 'cane winds in most states--just imagine an eye 50-100 mi wide raking NC and then LI as an 85-to-95-kt Cat-2 with a large wind field--in the Northeast, total Sandy-type coverage times 100^30

2. A repeat of the 1932 TX hurricane or Celia in the Gulf--a cyclone going from a TS or a Cat-1 to a top-grade Cat-3 or a Cat-4 within 36 or fewer hours before LF (yes, the '32 'cane actually went from TS to Cat-4 in even less time before hitting Freeport, though Celia took more time)--just place the LF directly over a big TX city like Galveston, Freeport, or Corpus Christi

3. A long-track, CV major that becomes Cat-4 three or more days before hitting the U.S.--like Frances, Isabel, 1926, or 1928--and then comes into S FL as a huge, strong Cat-4 like 1926 or 1928, a full 125-130 kt without the Frances- or Isabel-type implosion this time--eventually, this will happen again

4. A huge, Hugo-sized major hurricane curving toward the Savannah, GA, area, as in 1893 or 1898, with mega-high storm-surge potential over a very wide area--the 1898 hurricane was just like Hugo in size and is GA's only Cat-4 hit, having intensified all the way up to a 115-kt/938-mb LF near Sapelo Island

I keep talking about #3 because, personally, knowing S FL's reputation as the U.S. king of red-meat hits--with TX not far behind--I feel it is statistically the most likely to take a big smack in less time, on a climatological plane, than most other places in the U.S.

Yeah, there are a lot of scenarios that, if they played out again, would be serious. A King 1950 or Cleo 1964 redux-- i.e., a strong microcane hitting Downtown Miami-- would also be pretty nuts.

And then there's Tampa, which has gone almost a century without a direct hit from a major.