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Powerball

November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm

200 posts in this topic

[quote name='Brewers' timestamp='1353558088' post='1875075']


This was an awesome snowstorm for early December, picked up 14" here. Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha were under blizzard warnings as well.
[/quote]

After that MKE went almost a month and a half with no snow.

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The above 00z run of the GFS looks to give Detroit a 3-5" swath of the white stuff. I love early Christmas presents in November. Now watch it come in as all rain.

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[quote name='Geos' timestamp='1353549262' post='1874954']
11/24 the lake had more of a influence. Only had 2.5". Had some mixing issues in the morning here 4.2 miles inland.

[b]12/1/06 was a beast of a storm for this area! 13"[/b] after weather like this: 22nd-30th.

52º/31º 52º/32º 58º/33º 56º/36º 55º/43º 60º/44º 59º/44º 59º/36º 35º/23º

Kenosha was the winner at 17". Lake temperatures were running warm. I think more so than now.
Like to hear what Alek got in that storm.
[/quote]

ORD only had 5-6" on 12/1/06, as there was mixed precipitation for a good part of the storm. So, I imagine Alek had even less downtown.

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[quote name='DAFF' timestamp='1353558822' post='1875083']
The above 00z run of the GFS looks to give Detroit a 3-5" swath of the white stuff. I love early Christmas presents in November. Now watch it come in as all rain.
[/quote]

It's rarely gets better than 3-5" for the end of November, especially in Detroit.

I'm just glad we finally have the first legit threat to track for the season. It's way too boring for me.

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[quote name='Powerball' timestamp='1353559046' post='1875088']

It's rarely gets better than 3-5" for the end of November, especially in Detroit.

I'm just glad we finally have the first legit threat to track for the season. It's way too boring for me.
[/quote]
I can't even remember the last time we got anything above 3" in November. It's been awhile.

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One caveat that I could see with this system is time of day, currently it would be coming during the daytime, not to say this is about sun angle but more so about the fact that it would be coming during the warmest part of the day with already marginal temperatures. Of course this is no where near locked in, as the timing with respect to this system is all over the road. Personally I'd rather see it come at night vs during the day.

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[quote name='Stebo' timestamp='1353559699' post='1875097']
One caveat that I could see with this system is time of day, currently it would be coming during the daytime, not to say this is about sun angle but more so about the fact that it would be coming during the warmest part of the day with already marginal temperatures. Of course this is no where near locked in, as the timing with respect to this system is all over the road. [b]Personally I'd rather see it come at night vs during the day.[/b]
[/quote]
The children would agree.

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Start at 5:30 pm finishing around 3:00AM. A snow plowers prefered timed storm. Nothing worse than a quick punch at 6am to screw up your morning. Everyone thinks they need to be first on the list. I always pick who pays first as a importantance factor.

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This is going to be one tough forecast. First you have this low amplitude wave coming ashore BC/pac NW and then has to cross the rockies. So that's one thing the models will struggle with. Then you have this second wave that comes southeast and moves along the US/Canada border and almost phases with the first wave as it moves across the midwest and into the OV. So not only will the models have to deal with the timing/strength of both of those, but also the speed and if this phasing occurs. The 18z GFS had a much stronger wave cross the rockies where the 0z GFS is much weaker with it.

18z GFS

[attachment=78750:gfsUS_500_avort_150.gif]

0z GFS

[attachment=78751:gfsUS_500_avort_144.gif]

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[quote name='DAFF' timestamp='1353560007' post='1875106']
Start at 5:30 pm finishing around 3:00AM. A snow plowers prefered timed storm. Nothing worse than a quick punch at 6am to screw up your morning. Everyone thinks they need to be first on the list. I always pick who pays first as a importantance factor.
[/quote]

Those 6 a.m. punches are the only times they close school around here. We could get a foot of snow throughout the night and the roads be a mess, but everything will be open. They are pretty hardcore around here with not canceling stuff.

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UKE getting into form early.

12Z

[img]http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif[/img]


00Z
[img]http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif[/img]

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Quite the storm on the GGEM, especially for IA/WI early on...
[url="http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=132&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1"]http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=132&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1[/url]

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UKMET and GGEM look really similar. Good for the upper midwest, if they verify. My gut instinct says the track will end up like the GGEM, and I will be surprised (and happy) if Detroit ends up getting the bullseye.

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[quote name='M4dRefluX' timestamp='1353565858' post='1875151']
It looks like 00z Euro doesn't have a storm.
[/quote]


Looks like it was run for another planet. Talk about suppressed.

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[quote name='Hoosier' timestamp='1353566581' post='1875165']
Looks like it was run for another planet. Talk about suppressed.
[/quote]
I have a hard time believing that there will be that much cold air suppressing the storm. No way that verifies for this time of year.

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We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.

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[quote name='Minnesota Meso' timestamp='1353567659' post='1875174']
We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.
[/quote]


I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.

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[quote name='Minnesota Meso' timestamp='1353567659' post='1875174']
We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt.
[/quote]
The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.

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[quote name='Hoosier' timestamp='1353568023' post='1875177']
[b]I think the Euro is the outlier at this point.[/b] I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now.
[/quote]

[quote name='M4dRefluX' timestamp='1353568033' post='1875178']
The afternoon run had a storm. [b]At this point, I'm considering it an outlier.[/b] Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.
[/quote]
Great minds think alike. :lol:

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[quote name='Hoosier' timestamp='1353568439' post='1875181']
Even the NOGAPS takes the surface low into Ohio.
[/quote]
Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier.

I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. :lol:

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[quote name='M4dRefluX' timestamp='1353568033' post='1875178']
The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon.

I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now.
[/quote]

IMO, I think he GEM has been the most consistent thus far, I'm just having a hard time buying it, the - PDO what it is, cold air will pour in before the storm gets wrapped up.

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