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November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm


Powerball

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The strength of the cold air this weekend could be a huge factor in this storm. If the cold air is strong enough it could be giving snow to more areas than first glance would suggest. Could even be one of thos deals where anyone with thicknesses under 543 or so could get snow, when a situation like that is usually more common in mid-winter, which we are nowhere near. I can remember many-a-cold November rains where thicknesses of 538-540 had me excited for snow only to disappoint, but perhaps this scenario will be the opposite?

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Liking that 18z run! Lakes are a factor, but the air mass over the snow area is below -2.5°C at 925mb. The cold air source looks pretty good I'd say. Hopefully with 4 days of cold and some wind, the lakes will cool off a couple degrees.

Yeah, I suspect Alek will make a statement soon!

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Liking that 18z run! Lakes are a factor, but the air mass over the snow area is below -2.5°C at 925mb. The cold air source looks pretty good I'd say. Hopefully with 4 days of cold and some wind, the lakes will cool off a couple degrees.

Yeah, I suspect Alek will make a statement soon!

The only recent events (same time of year) I can think of in that area are 11/24/04 and 12/1/06. Alek might remember more. It's still a long way out but if something like the 18z GFS were to verify I could see a scenario where there's accumulating snow inland...meanwhile it's like 36 in downtown Chicago with snow that has a hard time sticking.

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The only recent events (same time of year) I can think of in that area are 11/24/04 and 12/1/06. Alek might remember more. It's still a long way out but if something like the 18z GFS were to verify I could see a scenario where there's accumulating snow inland...meanwhile it's like 36 in downtown Chicago with snow that has a hard time sticking.

11/24 the lake had more of a influence. Only had 2.5". Had some mixing issues in the morning here 4.2 miles inland.

12/1/06 was a beast of a storm for this area! 13" after weather like this: 22nd-30th.

52º/31º 52º/32º 58º/33º 56º/36º 55º/43º 60º/44º 59º/44º 59º/36º 35º/23º

Kenosha was the winner at 17". Lake temperatures were running warm. I think more so than now.

Like to hear what Alek got in that storm.

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Sam Lashley, a respected met at IWX, makes a good point in his afternoon disco:

NEXT MAIN CHALLENGE IN EXTENDED IS WITH DEVELOPING PAN

HANDLE HOOK SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS

REMAIN SPREAD BUT TREND NOTED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION DEVELOPED IN

THE 00Z RUNS WITH ECMWF AND GFS STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH

SURFACE LOW TRACK. 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK SOUTH AND WEAKER WHILE

12Z GEMNH IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED

TROF AND SFC LOW TRACK INTO WI NEXT WEEK. 12Z GEFS ALSO SHOWING

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW. PREFERENCE CONTINUES TOWARD

NORTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PAST

HISTORY OF THESE TYPE SYSTEMS. THE UNCERTAINTY AND KEY PLAYER IS HOW

STRONG THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY

TILTED. FOR THIS REASON MUST STILL HONOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN

SOLUTIONS WHICH SIMPLY ALLOWS US TO KEEP A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION IN

THE FORECAST WITH ALL BLEND TEMPS BEING USED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY

OF BEING IN THE WARM OR COLD SECTOR.

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The only recent events (same time of year) I can think of in that area are 11/24/04 and 12/1/06. Alek might remember more. It's still a long way out but if something like the 18z GFS were to verify I could see a scenario where there's accumulating snow inland...meanwhile it's like 36 in downtown Chicago with snow that has a hard time sticking.

Granted some of these are up to 1 and a half weeks later... There's 12/7-9/09, 12/8-9/05, 12/6-7/94 and 12/2-3/91.

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11/24 the lake had more of a influence. Only had 2.5". Had some mixing issues in the morning here 4.2 miles inland.

12/1/06 was a beast of a storm for this area! 13" after weather like this: 22nd-30th.

52º/31º 52º/32º 58º/33º 56º/36º 55º/43º 60º/44º 59º/44º 59º/36º 35º/23º

Kenosha was the winner at 17". Lake temperatures were running warm. I think more so than now.

Like to hear what Alek got in that storm.

ORD only had 5-6" on 12/1/06, as there was mixed precipitation for a good part of the storm. So, I imagine Alek had even less downtown.

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The above 00z run of the GFS looks to give Detroit a 3-5" swath of the white stuff. I love early Christmas presents in November. Now watch it come in as all rain.

It's rarely gets better than 3-5" for the end of November, especially in Detroit.

I'm just glad we finally have the first legit threat to track for the season. It's way too boring for me.

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One caveat that I could see with this system is time of day, currently it would be coming during the daytime, not to say this is about sun angle but more so about the fact that it would be coming during the warmest part of the day with already marginal temperatures. Of course this is no where near locked in, as the timing with respect to this system is all over the road. Personally I'd rather see it come at night vs during the day.

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One caveat that I could see with this system is time of day, currently it would be coming during the daytime, not to say this is about sun angle but more so about the fact that it would be coming during the warmest part of the day with already marginal temperatures. Of course this is no where near locked in, as the timing with respect to this system is all over the road. Personally I'd rather see it come at night vs during the day.

The children would agree.

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This is going to be one tough forecast. First you have this low amplitude wave coming ashore BC/pac NW and then has to cross the rockies. So that's one thing the models will struggle with. Then you have this second wave that comes southeast and moves along the US/Canada border and almost phases with the first wave as it moves across the midwest and into the OV. So not only will the models have to deal with the timing/strength of both of those, but also the speed and if this phasing occurs. The 18z GFS had a much stronger wave cross the rockies where the 0z GFS is much weaker with it.

18z GFS

0z GFS

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Start at 5:30 pm finishing around 3:00AM. A snow plowers prefered timed storm. Nothing worse than a quick punch at 6am to screw up your morning. Everyone thinks they need to be first on the list. I always pick who pays first as a importantance factor.

Those 6 a.m. punches are the only times they close school around here. We could get a foot of snow throughout the night and the roads be a mess, but everything will be open. They are pretty hardcore around here with not canceling stuff.

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