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wederwarrior

Talking Winter 2012-2013

265 posts in this topic

Saw a few winter forecasts popping up and thought it was about time.

Some say above average snowfall, some say torch... What say you?
When is our first real threat going to materialize? Is it the elusive december 5th? Or another Snowtober?

It is sure to be a roller coaster ride with many ups and downs, late nights waiting for the 0z Euro, and a lot of squinting/hallucinating for where the 540 line sets up.

Let the games begin. :snowing: :mapsnow: :snowman:

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[url="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820"]http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820[/url]

Never too early indeed. :rolleyes:

When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic?

Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.

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Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.

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[quote name='Thunder Road' timestamp='1345055782' post='1699240']
[url="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820"]http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820[/url]

Never too early indeed. :rolleyes:

When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic?

[b]Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.[/b]
[/quote]

:lmao:

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[quote name='Thunder Road' timestamp='1345055782' post='1699240']
Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.
[/quote]

So there is such thing as too cold and snowy?

[img]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2012/590x393_08131507_winter2012-13graphic.jpg[/img]

The reasoning is based off of a weak el nino forecast.
Now, granted this plays to their subscription $

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[quote name='Thunder Road' timestamp='1345055782' post='1699240']
[url="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820"]http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820[/url]

Never too early indeed. :rolleyes:

When was the last time these people went with anything besides heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic?

Personally I'm still reeling from the worst winter in years that the Chicago area got last year, you know, the one that made everyone want to move because it was so cold and snowy.
[/quote]

[url="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890"]http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890[/url]

their call last winter lol

(to be fair, a number of people were calling for a bad Lakes winter...that flopped badly)

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[quote name='tombo82685' timestamp='1345062189' post='1699524']
Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.
[/quote]

not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right.

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[quote name='phlwx' timestamp='1345065853' post='1699694']
not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right.
[/quote]

yes i know, but statistically, i would like my chances of atleast normal or above snowfall wise with an el nino rather than a la nina. Their have been dud el nino yrs, 97-98 was another, but that was a powerhouse el nino which usually arent that good unless its west based. Then you have to take all the other factors like teleconnections and what not.

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[quote name='phlwx' timestamp='1345065853' post='1699694']

not every el nino is a good el nino (see 94-95, 06-07) but your Miller A point is right.
[/quote]
They were both stronger than the coming el nino (forecasted). They both had cold snowy Feb.

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[size=4]Rob Guarino:[/size]

[url="http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179"][u][size=2][color=#0000ff][size=2][color=#0000ff]http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179[/color][/size][/color][/size][/u][/url]

[url="http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179"][u][size=2][color=#0000ff][size=2][color=#0000ff]http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179[/color][/size][/color][/size][/u][/url]

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[quote name='Quakertown needs snow' timestamp='1345119956' post='1700525']
[size=4]Rob Guarino:[/size]

[url="http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179"][u][size=2][color=#0000ff][size=2][color=#0000ff]http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179[/color][/size][/color][/size][/u][/url]

[url="http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179"][u][size=2][color=#0000ff][size=2][color=#0000ff]http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=3853&Itemid=179[/color][/size][/color][/size][/u][/url]
[/quote]

let me guess, cold and snowy... :ee:


EDIT: yep...

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[quote name='easternsnowman' timestamp='1345126268' post='1700675']
Accuweather is no worse than the cfs or any other governemnt forecasting svcs.
[/quote]
I don't have the impression that Accuweather's forecasts are any more or less skillful than anyone else's at this lead time (which is to say, I haven't seen any [i]public[/i] forecasts with any skill at this lead time). But their hype machine for a winter forecast made on Aug 15 is the megalolz.

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[quote name='am19psu' timestamp='1345126420' post='1700679']
I don't have the impression that Accuweather's forecasts are any more or less skillful than anyone else's at this lead time (which is to say, I haven't seen any [i]public[/i] forecasts with any skill at this lead time). [b]But their hype machine for a winter forecast made on Aug 15 is the megalolz.[/b]
[/quote]

That's what I have been struggling with. Even the October outlooks/forecasts for winter are a stretch and still prone to serious error, so why even bother coming out with this stuff in August? (I know the answer, but still...) I give these "forecasts" about as much credence as the farmer's almanac...

This feels similar to the notion that the stores bring out the Christmas displays/decorations earlier and earlier each year. Let's get to and enjoy fall for pete's sake!

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[quote name='MGorse' timestamp='1345126497' post='1700681']
It sounds like I will finally get to use this bad boy this winter. ;)
[/quote]

Can you clear a few fairways for Tony with thing? :rambo:

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[quote name='dryslotted' timestamp='1345129210' post='1700739']

Can you clear a few fairways for Tony with thing? :rambo:
[/quote]

Sure thing. :)

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[quote name='wederwarrior' timestamp='1345063882' post='1699592']
So there is such thing as too cold and snowy?

[img]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2012/590x393_08131507_winter2012-13graphic.jpg[/img]

The reasoning is based off of a weak el nino forecast.
Now, granted this plays to their subscription $
[/quote]

Paul must've been thinking of me when he put in that sucker hole around Elko :lmao:

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[quote name='tombo82685' timestamp='1345062189' post='1699524']
Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.
[/quote]

I agree about Miller A's. Even up here, we usually get shafted by Miller B's. I love Miller A's. Everyone takes part in it.

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[quote name='tombo82685' timestamp='1345062189' post='1699524']
Not looking at any teleconnections or anything, but just going off enso. I would rather take my chances heading into winter with an el nino than a la nina anyday. [b]El nino's are produce more the miller A storms while ninas get into your miller B where parts of our region get shafted in if not all.[/b]
[/quote]
Weaker el Ninos produce mainly Miller Bs, as well....you want the mod-strong ones down there, to activate the s stream.

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[quote name='iceman56' timestamp='1345136574' post='1700946']
Nope, actually very close to normal around here which at this distance is the safest way to go.
[/quote]

He went with above average snowfall for Philly metro and the surrounding burbs. IIRC (if you have a link for it, and can show that I am recalling it incorrectly, by all means point it out), he said about the same thing last year, and we all know how that worked out. I don't agree that going with a "close to normal" call is the safest way to go. Personally, I think it's silly to even make a call in August, but I am interpreting this "for entertainment purposes only"...

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