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WestminsterDeathband

June 2012 Departure Thread DCA

94 posts in this topic

[quote name='nw baltimore wx' timestamp='1338985723' post='1579842']
If DCA has a negative departure again today, I think it would be the longest stretch of below normal days (5 days) since the last week of October and early November (6 days, which included the October snow).
[/quote]
We eked out our seventh consecutive negative departure today (Friday, June 8th) at DCA, making it the longest such streak in well over a year -- since a 12-day negative stretch during March 23-April 3, 2011.

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[quote name='RodneyS' timestamp='1339202980' post='1583431']
We eked out our seventh consecutive negative departure today (Friday, June 8th) at DCA, making it the longest such streak in well over a year -- since a 12-day negative stretch during March 23-April 3, 2011.
[/quote]

Up my way, we also had a nine-day stretch of negative departures April 22-30 of [i]this year[/i]. April 23 had the largest departure during that stretch, with a 46/37 max/min reading, against historical averages of 70/47 for that day.

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[quote name='Ian' timestamp='1339259148' post='1584085']
it' hot. woo!
[/quote]

we are going to essentially erase a 7 day cold streak in 3 days....Tu-WED and looks like normal to +2 until the heat comes back Thursday or Friday

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[quote name='zwyts' timestamp='1339260975' post='1584110']


we are going to essentially erase a 7 day cold streak in 3 days....Tu-WED and looks like normal to +2 until the heat comes back Thursday or Friday
[/quote]

Today is at least a + 5.5. Could be warmer. At least one of the next 2 days should be a +7.

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[quote name='leesburg 04' timestamp='1339421227' post='1586262']
The models at least don't look too warm after today....death ridge cancel?
[/quote]
no death ridge is the persistence forecast for now imo.. oh well, a cool summer is still warm

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[quote name='Ian' timestamp='1339423012' post='1586284']
no death ridge is the persistence forecast for now imo.. oh well, a cool summer is still warm
[/quote]

True...mid upper 80's is still yuck....

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yeah...the height anomalies continue to be displaced to the north...I think this quasi ring of fire I am predicting doesn't materialize until early to mid next week if at all...the euro/gfs both suggest the possibility....we start to fight quickly increasing norms soon, but I am not seeing any prolonged -3 period like we had to start the month...looks mostly normal to slightly above until this weekend and then up inthe air but a couple minus days may be in the cards...A smart bet was to go normal for the month after the beginning, but I still think we eek out just above if not the 1 to 2 I recently callled for or the 2 to 3 I predicted in the outlook...I am not going to keep revising my prediction, but rather accept that there are risk factors there to suggest why it may not materialize...2nd half is a real wildcard..

in other news, we popped a +7 on the min this morning...at 85 now..should be able to hit 88-90

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[quote name='zwyts' timestamp='1339440717' post='1586653']
We are at least +6.5 today

Euro has this inverted trough through the weekend and is frankly cool....I am a bit flummoxed as to how the week will pan out
[/quote]

i saw that too. Is the battleground we talked about in another thread starting to show it's face early? I was thinking the chance existed for an extended period of ec troughing in July-Aug but like you, i figged june was a lock for heat in these parts.

The heights built quickly around greenland during mem day weeking while we were roasting and there was enough force to push the trough all the way to the south of us in early june. NAO forecasts last week showed this relaxing fairly quickly this week and next but that is changing. If anything, guidance is starting to lean towards building heights up there again after the 16-20th time frame. Whether this translates down this far south is always a wildcard in the summer but you never know.

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MRB has not hit 90 yet this year. There have only been 5 years since 1980 that the first 90 came later than this.

7/9/1992
6/25/2003
6/20/2001
6/20/1995
6/15/1981

Knocking May and June off the high-heat calendar makes whatever comes Jul-Aug more bearable, imo.

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[quote name='WVclimo' timestamp='1339449405' post='1586861']
MRB has not hit 90 yet this year. There have only been 5 years since 1980 that the first 90 came later than this.

7/9/1992
6/25/2003
6/20/2001
6/20/1995
6/15/1981

Knocking May and [b]June off the high-heat calendar[/b] makes whatever comes Jul-Aug more bearable, imo.
[/quote]

always

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[quote name='Bob Chill' timestamp='1339441299' post='1586669']
i saw that too. Is the battleground we talked about in another thread starting to show it's face early? I was thinking the chance existed for an extended period of ec troughing in July-Aug but like you, i figged june was a lock for heat in these parts.

The heights built quickly around greenland during mem day weeking while we were roasting and there was enough force to push the trough all the way to the south of us in early june. NAO forecasts last week showed this relaxing fairly quickly this week and next but that is changing. If anything, guidance is starting to lean towards building heights up there again after the 16-20th time frame. Whether this translates down this far south is always a wildcard in the summer but you never know.
[/quote]


I am a bit surprised that we may not torch by later this week....but perhaps the 2nd half....I still like a relatively normal July without any super extended heat waves....but I may be completely off base...Competing regimes always make it hard...with unimpressive 850 temps, we need some help to bake...and it doesn't look like we see anything anomalous at the mid/upper levels for at least a week

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It's amazing how Richmond has been so drastically different relative to our averages versus DCA and CHO.

DCA is running ~ -0.5 while CHO is running +1.0.

Down here RIC is running -2.4 and, especially after the last two years, it's felt even cooler than that.

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[quote name='MN Transplant' timestamp='1339504162' post='1587588']
Looks like we might get a string of -3ish departures through the weekend. Looks nice, really.
[/quote]

MOS certainly suggests it...today should be a wash or a -1...starting tomorrow looks like it could be a string of below...I am dubious of these low mins though despite MOS....so that might mitigate it a bit...Euro suggest at or above normal in about a week, but the models have been bad at that range..I am not very familiar with this setup in the summer...a ULL/inverted trough to our southeast..the euro certainly wants to keep us cold until early next week

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[quote name='zwyts' timestamp='1339518575' post='1587883']
MOS certainly suggests it...today should be a wash or a -1...starting tomorrow looks like it could be a string of below...[b]I am dubious of these low mins though despite MOS[/b]....so that might mitigate it a bit...Euro suggest at or above normal in about a week, but the models have been bad at that range..I am not very familiar with this setup in the summer...a ULL/inverted trough to our southeast..the euro certainly wants to keep us cold until early next week
[/quote]


Prob a smart play to hedge with higher mins. HP is centered over NE with NE-SE surface flow Fri-Sun. Dews will probably end up high enough to keep mins in the mid-upper 60's around DCA even with relatively clear skies and hp in control. I doubt the closer in suburbs will get into the 50's and if they do it will only be a brief time near sunrise but that is just a guess.

Looking at the latest GFS, it doesn't really scream heat at all. Even with some of the ridging that builds the surface flow has a distinct easterly component from days 3-8. It briefly turns southerly around days 8-9 but then flips to westerly past after that. Of course there isn't much confidence at that range but we may get off really easy this month.

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Looking below normal maybe the last week of the month as well. Pretty amazing really, compared to the heat of recent years.

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[quote name='FrederickWX' timestamp='1339624990' post='1589508']
Looking below normal maybe the last week of the month as well. Pretty amazing really, compared to the heat of recent years.
[/quote]

yes...I think the pattern now is the same as to start the month 5-6 days of cool/cold and then 2-4 days of heat...should be the same next week...Euro suggests 2-3 day period of heat and then who knows...I am curious to see what kind of departures we build up over the next 5 days

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i think i predicted a cool summer
[url="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/from-march-heat-in-washington-dc-to-a-summer-scorcher/2012/03/20/gIQAJKPwRS_blog.html"]http://www.washingto...KPwRS_blog.html[/url]

edit: skip the last para

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[quote name='Ian' timestamp='1339644055' post='1589967']
i think i predicted a cool summer
[url="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/from-march-heat-in-washington-dc-to-a-summer-scorcher/2012/03/20/gIQAJKPwRS_blog.html"]http://www.washingto...KPwRS_blog.html[/url]

edit: skip the last para
[/quote]

not sure using 1981-2010 norms as a benchmark made the most sense...but I'm sure you didnt feel like crunching all sorts of numbers....

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[quote name='Ian' timestamp='1339644055' post='1589967']
i think i predicted a cool summer
[url="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/from-march-heat-in-washington-dc-to-a-summer-scorcher/2012/03/20/gIQAJKPwRS_blog.html"]http://www.washingto...KPwRS_blog.html[/url]

edit: skip the last para
[/quote]
I don't think it's out of the question. We've had this repeating pattern of a couple days of warmth, followed by a number of days of cool. We've also had a pretty persistent flow out of the northwest to east for extended periods. We've also seen models advertise extended heat, only to see the "heat" reduced in length and strength. Troughing has been persistent, and no strong southeast ridging. That can change, but the fact that we aren't seeing signs of extended heat even in the models out through the end of June is pretty interesting. Wouldn't be shocked to see July and August average close to normal, or even a little below normal.

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