March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[bluewave]

Subfreezing layer 850-900 mb should cause some sleet to mix in as the precip starts even in NYC

while the surface temps should be in the low 40's.

[ag3]

Subfreezing layer 850-900 mb should cause some sleet to mix in as the precip starts even in NYC

while the surface temps should be in the low 40's.

NAM and the high res models have NYC also dropping into the mid and upper 30's as the heavy precip is on top of us.

Definitely wouldn't be surprised if sleet mixes in with the rain.

But we would need to be over the deform and heaviest of the precip.

[SBUWX23]

I dont have access to soundings but the Euro seems pretty far south and has 850s below zero at 12z Saturday. Im sure its warm at the surface though.

[bmc10]

I dont have access to soundings but the Euro seems pretty far south and has 850s below zero at 12z Saturday. Im sure its warm at the surface though.

Just checked, looks similar to GFS. It's overall organization blows, has trouble consolidating the energy. Looks like some sleet, wet snow mixing in for the near suburbs. NW NJ and SNY maybe get a bit more.

[supermeh]

Monday is looking colder and colder.

[tmagan]

12Z RGEM total snow through hour 48.

Seems Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties are a good place to be.

[Snow_Miser]

NAM seems a little bit slower and further south than the 12z NAM for Saturday's little wave of precip. It also seems to be a tad bit cooler at 850 mb.

[Snow_Miser]

18z NAM @ 42 hours.

During this frame surface temperatures are probably in the mid to upper 30s in NYC. It's hard to tell the exact temperatures on these Raleigh WX maps.

[ag3]

Looks really nice for CT, away from the coast, the Catskills, extreme northern NJ and into SENY.

[Sundog]

Looks really nice for CT, away from the coast, the Catskills and very northern NJ and into SENY.

It looks good here too bro, doesn't mean it's going to happen though.

[supermeh]

Looks really nice for CT, away from the coast, the Catskills and very northern NJ and into SENY.

I would say, based off just the 18z NAM, immediate burbs just north and west of the City see snow.

[ag3]

It looks good here too bro, doesn't mean it's going to happen though.

The coast is in the mid 40's and drops to the upper 30's with the levels above 850 torching.

Rain with maybe sleet in the beginning.

[ag3]

Right about .50" of rain on the NAM for the city.

[supermeh]

Right about .50" of rain on the NAM for the city.

What does it show for white plains?

[ag3]

What does it show for white plains?

[supermeh]

Are levels torching up north too?

[jm1220]

I-84 looks like a possible 3-6" sweet spot at this point, esp. higher elevations. Mount Pocono or some higher peaks might come in at a 6-7" spot.

[SnoSki14]

I-84 looks like a possible 3-6" sweet spot at this point, esp. higher elevations. Mount Pocono or some higher peaks might come in at a 6-7" spot.

Would be impressive considering the 2 week of crazy March warmth not too long ago. Unfortunately we'll probably be stuck in the low 40s Saturday with rain, ouch.

[eduggs]

Are levels torching up north too?

No. There is a pronounced warm layer above 850mb, but it relatively shallow north of southern Westchester and CT. It would likely support snow/sleet up there... though I lean towards a wet snow vs. rain scenario this time of year. South and west of NYC, the NAM does show a bit of a "torch," whatever that means, but the gradient is very sharp, and you don't have to go very far north and east before the soundings support frozen precip.

[supermeh]

No. There is a pronounced warm layer above 850mb, but it relatively shallow north of southern Westchester and CT. It would likely support snow/sleet up there... though I lean towards a wet snow vs. rain scenario this time of year. South and west of NYC, the NAM does show a bit of a "torch," whatever that means, but the gradient is very sharp, and you don't have to go very far north and east before the soundings support frozen precip.

Thanks.

[jrodd321]

12Z RGEM total snow through hour 48.

Seems Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties are a good place to be.

Wow this event doesn't look similar at all. Lol.

[NYCSuburbs]

12Z RGEM total snow through hour 48.

Seems Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties are a good place to be.

I've lost count of how many times it rained here while snowing only 15-30 miles to my north this winter... this could perhaps be another one of these cases. Unless the 850mb line is noticeably south with the heavier precipitation in the north side of the storm ending up near NYC rather than SNE, I don't see it snowing here (immediate N/W suburbs), and even if that did happen it would be a marginal solution at best IMO.

[bluewave]

12z ensembles along with Euro moving away from the big cutoff idea in the long range.

12z

0z

[snywx]

I-84 looks like a possible 3-6" sweet spot at this point, esp. higher elevations. Mount Pocono or some higher peaks might come in at a 6-7" spot.

Im about 1 mile north of I-84.. lol

I would say 2-4" with some 5" spots is looking real possible now.

[snywx]

I've lost count of how many times it rained here while snowing only 15-30 miles to my north this winter... this could perhaps be another one of these cases. Unless the 850mb line is noticeably south with the heavier precipitation in the north side of the storm ending up near NYC rather than SNE, I don't see it snowing here (immediate N/W suburbs), and even if that did happen it would be a marginal solution at best IMO.

Umm.. Thats normal. The past few yrs have spoiled quite a few who live on or near the coast.

[Reale WX]

I've lost count of how many times it rained here while snowing only 15-30 miles to my north this winter... this could perhaps be another one of these cases. Unless the 850mb line is noticeably south with the heavier precipitation in the north side of the storm ending up near NYC rather than SNE, I don't see it snowing here (immediate N/W suburbs), and even if that did happen it would be a marginal solution at best IMO.

Sorry NE NJ is out of the game, it doesnt matter what the 850s are, the BL will be too warm and surface no lower than 36-39 degrees. The two similar storms in late Feb were a similar set up but slightly colder in the BL and couldnt produce snow.

The other thing to consider is where the omega's / snow growth zone sets up. Right now it looks like a strip from Danbury to Poughkeepsie to Binghamton. The only way to get accumulating snowfall with this is to be making big dendrites... areas further south may snow or mix, but without thoase big flakes and snow < 3/4 mi, nothing will cover (not to mention the qpf is likely overdone in those same areas because of model resolution)

[WeatherFox]

It does not snow too often in NYC in April and I believe the average April snowfall for NYC is 1/2 inch.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

[Sundog]

12z ensembles along with Euro moving away from the big cutoff idea in the long range.

Those are some pretty insane differences. Makes me not want to put too much stock in either solution right now.

[MJO812]

18z gfs snowmap shows snow for NYC lol

[BxEngine]

It does not snow too often in NYC in April and I believe the average April snowfall for NYC is 1/2 inch.

http://www.erh.noaa....onsnowfall.html

Its a good thing its still March.