March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

[Analog96]

I give it maybe a ~1-2% chance of happening. I think the more likely scenario is the wave gets crushed and sheared out under confluence and we stay dry. Or it gets suppressed. The only model really harping on this is the usually over done NAM.

To be fair, the 6Z GFS made a big step in the NAM's direction.

[TheTrials]

Even though it got down to 30F in the park we didn't really have a freeze here. So, not too bad.

They are jealous of our leaves and flowers.

[Analog96]

Even though it got down to 30F in the park we didn't really have a freeze here. So, not too bad.

Yes, you did have a freeze. The National Weather Service determines a freeze as a low at or below 32 degrees.

[pazzo83]

Yes, you did have a freeze. The National Weather Service determines a freeze as a low at or below 32 degrees.

Most of Manhattan didn't get below freezing that night. There was absolutely no damage to any flowers/plants from what I saw all along the East Side. I even ran in the park this morning and nothing was damaged. Park looks like late April.

[Analog96]

Most of Manhattan didn't get below freezing that night. There was absolutely no damage to any flowers/plants from what I saw all along the East Side. I even ran in the park this morning and nothing was damaged. Park looks like late April.

Just because nothing was damaged does not mean you did not hit freezing. It hit 29 here and nothing was damaged. It wasn't dry enough for frost to form and it wasn't below freezing that long. That doesn't change the fact that it still was a freeze.

[Brian5671]

same here-it was 27, but we were spared damage due to no frost--that's an interesting point that if frost doesn't develop, there's less damage--why is that?

[Analog96]

same here-it was 27, but we were spared damage due to no frost--that's an interesting point that if frost doesn't develop, there's less damage--why is that?

The ice sitting on the leaves of the plants does more damage than just cold air. However, once you get much under 25, the reverse is true, because ice is significantly warmer than the air. That's why when a hard freeze is predicted, farmers cover oranges in ice.

[supermeh]

NAM going to show a hit again.

[NJwinter23]

so much for the big bad block cooling us down, nice torch today!!

Where exactly do u see a big bad Greenland block today?

Give it 2-3 days

[Guest Pamela]

Yes, you did have a freeze. The National Weather Service determines a freeze as a low at or below 32 degrees.

The guy you quoted lives in his own little world when it comes to the rules of weather....

[MJO812]

12z Nam at 66 hours

[NorEaster27]

NAM trying to make it snow again.

[supermeh]

12z Nam at 66 hours

This is comical now.

[MJO812]

This is comical now.

It really is. It looks like it went slightly south from the last run. It followed the RSM and SREF.

[Analog96]

This is comical now.

We'll see what the 12Z GFS does, but if it trends toward the NAM, and things keep looking this way, with every passing model run, it actually gets more likely.

[MJO812]

Radar shot of hour 66 on the 12z Nam

[supermeh]

We'll see what the 12Z GFS does, but if it trends toward the NAM, and things keep looking this way, with every passing model run, it actually gets more likely.

That's the funny part. It can't snow in winter, but it tries to happen in spring and it does happen in fall.

[MJO812]

That's the funny part. It can't snow in winter, but it tries to happen in spring and it does happen in fall.

Mother nature is trying to tease us. I just put away all my winter gear.

[earthlight]

Well, if it happens...I'll officially dub this the most odd winter of all time...3/4 of our already putrid snow totals will have fallen out of season

[earthlight]

By the way, also funny to see the NAM showing a weenie band on that image with the stripe of precip near the best lift and the subsidence south of it.

[NEG NAO]

Out here...4/9/96 might have been the best...save for the wind aspect of the '82 storm...

http://www.northshor...10Snowstorm.gif

(Image courtesy NorthShoreWx)

I was living in Northern Ocean County NJ and we had 7 inches of heavy wet snow in the evening of 4/9/96 -lost power and the local radio station started playing christmas music - bizzare to say the least

[Sundog]

By the way, also funny to see the NAM showing a weenie band on that image with the stripe of precip near the best lift and the subsidence south of it.

We have to wait until we get closer in to see who gets under the best banding lol

[TheTrials]

Well, if it happens...I'll officially dub this the most odd winter of all time...3/4 of our already putrid snow totals will have fallen out of season

NAM has a big snow hole over Mt. Earthlight, the disaster continues.

[Thunderdude]

NAM always tend to show its cold snowy bias. I think at most we will see a cold rain mixing with or changing to wet snow with no accumulations for the city.

[Brian5671]

We have to wait until we get closer in to see who gets under the best banding lol

[MJO812]

NAM always tend to show its cold snowy bias. I think at most we will see a cold rain mixing with or changing to wet snow with no accumulations for the city.

Yes but the GFS at 6z just made a jump towards the Nam. Lets see what the 12z GFS shows.

[Guest Pamela]

12z NAM not that wet...0.22" for KNYC and KGA....0.32" for KISP....0.35": for BDR...though it falls at the best time possible....

[TheTrials]

The only banding any of us will be seeing is the stomach band rex ryan needs again after he busted through his last one.

[MJO812]

Old ETA. Also further south.

[Isotherm]

I'm concerned the short wave may dampen out and weak precip intensity will prevent most from really accumulating, but we'll what future runs hold. This H5 set-up isn't all that bad for late March. 50/50 and height rise into Greenland with sfc high pressure (albeit weak) in SE Canada. A bit of blocking over Hudson's Bay.