hockeyinc Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Just looked over the picks for the month... I was the torchiest and am still almost 10 degrees off.... UGH. Have a shot at this month's contest. I think I won Feb's, but never saw the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 After 29 days ... by the way, records for the 29th were 86 (1945) for both NYC and BOS ... DCA +10.7 NYC +9.2 (still sitting at 51.4, 0.3 above 1945 record) BOS +9.1 (re Feb, don't think it has been scored yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The decline continues through 30 days, with anomalies now at DCA +10.2 NYC +9.0 BOS +8.8 NYC sitting at 51.3 and with today's likely mean of about 42 factored in, month will barely fail to break the record (51.1) by finishing 51.0, based on 1539+42 = 1581/31 = 51.0. Would need to average 45 to tie and 48 to break (depends on rounding mainly). Anomalies will drop slightly as today will be hard pressed to produce positives let alone +10s. But what a wild ride this has been through record territory, against what many would consider the most difficult record to beat (monthly, for weekly would go July 1936). It's more or less a tie goes to the monthly max situation. March 1945 remains the bigger kahuna that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Final values DCA +10.0 NYC and BOS +8.4 NYC finished at 50.9 (for second to 1945) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 If I extend the provisional scoring (see Jan and Feb contest threads) that I used, March would probably not give the same range of scores as the official system. In JAN and FEB the scoring was based on errors within 5.0 deg of the actual values, a more lenient range than we had before the new system. And that seemed okay for JAN and perhaps a bit early on the cutoff for FEB, but in March we are going to see a range of scores that are way too low and probably won't match up with the correlation stats, so I will score this and any other month where the departures are >6.0 on a more lenient scale as follows ... for DCA, scores will be on the basis of 1.5 points for every 0.1 above 1.5 and for NYC and BOS, 1.5 points for every 0.1 above 0.5 ... this will max out at +8.2, +7.2, +7.2 ... anyone who went above those values gets 99/100. You can see the provisional scoring reports for JAN and FEB in those threads. I will try to update this month later today. Then some day we can compare this provisional method to the stats generated by Mallow's method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I have scored JAN, FEB and MAR provisionally for the interest of participants, and as explained in the JAN thread, this is not meant to replace the official scoring but just an attempt to show the scoring from a fairly similar technique. We'll see later how similar it actually is. Scoring for March ... see previous post for explanation of more lenient point deductions in March due to the extremely high outcomes, which would have given some fairly good forecasts very low scores. The ranges have been extended by 50% which is going to allow forecasts in the +2 to +5 range to score reasonably and also increase the scores of the closer forecasts. The chart below shows the March scores and those are followed by the JAN and FEB scores with a running total at the end. The order below is for March totals, ranks for the annual totals are placed beside the current top ten. Scores in March with time penalty deductions are marked with an asterisk * and so the numbers do not correspond to totals of the three months (a penalty of 1% per late hour is applied). The top 20 annual ranks are shown. Forecaster ......... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... Total .... JAN .... FEB ..... ANNUAL (rank) _________________________________________________________ Actual ................. 10.0 .... 8.4 .... 8.4 hockeyinc ........... 78 ..... 99 ..... 75 ..... 252 ......... 188 ..... 286 ... ... 726 (1) Mallow ............... 63 ..... 81 ..... 87 ..... 231 ......... 096 ..... 132 ... ... 459 (10) forkyfork ............. 53 ..... 84 ..... 87 ..... 224 ......... 244 ..... 122 ... ... 590 (4) NOVAforecaster .. 77 ..... 71 ..... 75 ..... 223 ......... -- -- ..... ---- ... ... 223 Derek Z .............. 60 ..... 77 ..... 78 ..... 215 ......... 188 ..... 192 ... ... 595 (3) nzucker .............. 71 ..... 78 ..... 66 ..... 215 ......... 162 ..... 177 ... ... 554 (6) Feb ................... 68 ..... 69 ..... 68 ..... 205 ......... 050 ..... 000 ... ... 255 Uncle W .............. 48 ..... 78 ..... 75 ..... 201 ......... 278 ..... 002 ... ... 481 (9) debeaches ......... 72 ..... 83 ..... 45 ..... 200 ......... 222 ..... 212 ... ... 634 (2) Pottercounty ..... 60 ..... 86 ..... 98 ..... 200* ......... 064 ..... 000 ... ... 264 HeatMiser .......... 60 ..... 69 ..... 68 ..... 197 ......... 056 ..... 000 ... ... 253 goobagooba ....... 59 ..... 71 ..... 56 ..... 186 ......... 210 ..... 180 ... ... 576 (5) Candyman CSG .... 44 ..... 66 ..... 71 ..... 181 ......... 184 ..... 064 ... ... 429 (13) CT Blizz .............. 54 ..... 66 ..... 53 ..... 173 ......... 148 ..... 000 ... ... 321 MidloSnowMaker.. 51 ..... 60 ..... 59 ..... 170 ......... 194 ..... 184 ... ... 548 (7) Roger Smith ....... 44 ..... 60 ..... 66 ..... 170 ......... 218 ..... 000 ... ... 388 (17) hudsonvalley21... 42 ..... 50 ..... 60 ..... 152 ......... 200 ..... 058 ... ... 410 (15) Inudaw .............. 35 ..... 56 ..... 60 ..... 145* ........ 240 ..... 066 ... ... 451 (11) Consensus ......... 45 ..... 50 ..... 50 ..... 145 ......... 160 ..... 074 ... ... 379 Litchfieldlib'ns .....27 ..... 44 ..... 71 ..... 142 ......... 226 ..... 140 ... ... 508 (8) timp .................. 41 ..... 51 ..... 48 ..... 140 ......... 176 ..... 092 ... ... 408 (16) RodneyS ........... 38 ..... 53 ..... 48 ..... 139 ......... 012 ..... 090 ... ... 241 Ellinwood ............ 35 ..... 50 ..... 51 ..... 136 ......... 184 ..... 060 ... ... 380 (18) ChicagoWX ......... 36 ..... 50 ..... 48 ..... 134 ......... 212 ..... 082 ... ... 428 (14) Snow88 ............ 23 ..... 47 ..... 60 ..... 130 ......... 016 ..... 000 ... ... 146 Tom ................... 30 ..... 48 ..... 48 ..... 126 ......... 162 ..... 020 ... ... 308 Qvectorman ...... 30 ..... 45 ..... 45 ..... 120 ......... 078 ..... 032 ... ... 230 LakeEffectKing... 32 ..... 45 ..... 41 ..... 118 ......... 158 ..... 056 ... ... 332 Quakertown nesn..39 ..... 42 ..... 39 ..... 112* ........ 172 ..... 056 ... ... 340 carley5 .............. 29 ..... 39 ..... 42 ..... 110 ......... -- -- ..... -- -- ..... 110 blazess556 ......... 27 ..... 41 ..... 35 ..... 103 ........ 041 ..... 047 ... ... 191 Brad1551 ............ 24 ..... 36 ..... 38 ..... 098 ......... -- -- ..... 072 ... ... 170 SD .................... 27 ..... 34 ..... 25 ..... 086 ......... 104 ..... 042 ... ... 230 Bkviking .............. 27 ..... 32 ..... 26 ..... 085 ......... 170 ..... 042 ... ... 297 MN Transplant .... 20 ..... 30 ..... 27 ..... 077 ......... 166 ..... 110 ... ... 353 (20) DonSutherland1.. 18 ..... 24 ..... 21 ..... 063 ......... 194 ..... 174 ... ... 431 (12) MariettaWX ....... 00 ..... 11 ..... 05 ..... 016 ......... 076 ..... 054 ... ... 146 NORMAL ........... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 000 ......... 012 ..... 000 ... ... 012 weatherjedi ........ 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 000 ......... -- -- ..... 000 ... ... 000 Beastfromeast ... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 000 ......... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 000 Did not play in MAR, scores from JAN and/or FEB Blizzard92 ........... ---..... ---..... --- ..... ---- ......... 192 ..... 170 ... ... 362 (19) cpick79 .............. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... 224 ... ... 224 weathafella ........ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 226 ..... -- -- ... ... 226 blizzardof09 ........ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 212 ..... -- -- ... ... 212 PSUHazletonwx.... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 212 ..... -- -- ... ... 212 frivolousz21 ........ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 210 ..... -- -- ... ... 210 Ian ..................... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 148 ..... 060 ... ... 208 Alpha5 ............... --- ...... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 184 ..... -- -- ... ... 184 Kevin Druff ......... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 162 ..... 000 ... ... 162 showmethesnow.. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 136 ..... -- -- ... ...136 BethesdaWX ...... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 129 ..... 000 ... ... 129 H20town_WX ..... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 120 ..... -- -- ... ... 120 GD0815 ............ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... 072 ... ... 072 StatenWx ........... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 060 ..... -- -- ... ... 060 tplbge ................. --- ..... --- .... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... 058 ... ... 058 RunawayIceberg. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 040 ..... -- -- ... ... 040 skierinvermont ... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 027 ..... -- -- ... ... 027 okie333 ............. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 000 ..... 000 ... ... 000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 And they laughed at my torch picks... One of these days, I hope to pick a below average departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 And they laughed at my torch picks... One of these days, I hope to pick a below average departure. Who did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Compiled: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Scores: Congrats, hockeyinc! I'll have the consensus and normals added in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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