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tombo82685

Medium Range Thread

678 posts in this topic

:devilsmiley:

70's in early march?

I mean, it's possible. Means go from 46 to 51 over the course of the 1st-15th. I don't see any cold signals at all for that first half of March.

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I mean, it's possible. Means go from 46 to 51 over the course of the 1st-15th. I don't see any cold signals at all for that first half of March.

Then again, as we go into spring, a lot of the winter teleconnections start to lose their significance. By this time, it's not much help to look at the stratosphere for example, so I'm basing the entire forecast on the MJO, PDO, warm Atlantic SSTs, and no snow in Canada to develop cold air masses. We'll see.

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I mean, it's possible. Means go from 46 to 51 over the course of the 1st-15th. I don't see any cold signals at all for that first half of March.

post-105-0-90749400-1329307513.gif

Based on the EC from last night we'd be entering phase 3 right around the last few days of Feb...perhaps the torch's arrival for March 6th on?

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30 day temperature anomaly forecast at PHL:

Feb 15-Feb 29: +6

Mar 1-Mar 15: +10

i hope we leap right into spring. My fear is we get into mid march to may with cool rainy conditions.

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Just quick question. Is the piece of energy on the water vapor over the four corners out west the storm being modeled or does another storm get cutoff from the jetstreams like this.?

latest_east_wv_conus.jpg

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oooo a bl issue coastal at hr 177 on the GFS last night.

The more impressive feature on the models last night was that deep low in the Northern Plains at hr 216+ on the Euro from last night. That looks fun to drive in a semi through.

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oooo a bl issue coastal at hr 177 on the GFS last night.

The more impressive feature on the models last night was that deep low in the Northern Plains at hr 216+ on the Euro from last night. That looks fun to drive in a semi through.

We have had so many issues this winter that our issues have had issues.

Today's 12z gfs run sure looks like that its in mode conflict with the mjo and teleconnection indices.

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Could hit 60-65 on Friday ahead of the front...pretty potent storm that will blow into Canada. Might be a changeover to snow north/west of I-80 and I-81 post-storm.

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Could hit 60-65 on Friday ahead of the front...pretty potent storm that will blow into Canada. Might be a changeover to snow north/west of I-80 and I-81 post-storm.

Eventually we might get a line of thunderstorms to be filmed. I am looking forward to the thunderstorms this year.

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Eventually we might get a line of thunderstorms to be filmed. I am looking forward to the thunderstorms this year.

You have a bit of a chance on Friday...reality probably shapes up to be a thunderless squall line but there could be some thunder ahead of the front depending on how warm we get and how the dynamics are.

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You have a bit of a chance on Friday...reality probably shapes up to be a thunderless squall line but there could be some thunder ahead of the front depending on how warm we get and how the dynamics are.

This is the best post so far in Feb. Cannot wait for the thunderstorm too. Hard to believe I am so anxious but I believe it is because we just have not had any storm event- dry too

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Hell, if MOS says 65 then maybe 70 is possible <cue Adam's blow torch>

I'm punting the rest of this winter. I'm looking forward to a nice spring. A very quiet, boring tropical season with nothing to track. High heat and unbearable humidity for summer. A fall that is just a continuation of summer and a third year nina. :axe:

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I'm punting the rest of this winter. I'm looking forward to a nice spring. A very quiet, boring tropical season with nothing to track. High heat and unbearable humidity for summer. A fall that is just a continuation of summer and a third year nina. :axe:

<laughs nervously> now you're just trying to scare me...Seriously though, are you reading/hearing/looking at anything that speaks to a brutal summer? I kind of thought that we might be setting up for a blah, mild summer. (sorry for the long range post)...

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