Rainshadow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 After the thu/fri system, cool down and then moderate for the President's Day storm per GFS (which is modeled to be kinda weak as of the 0z run last night). Generally milder in the extended range (post 240) with perhaps a one-two day cold shot mixed in. You can see where we are heading, the Pacific is trending more zonal again, which as the month goes along now makes more sense (breaking down the PNA too quickly this week is not a modeling shocker) as the MJO wave moves along. The NAO is outlooked to become more negative (or less positive), that I'll believe it when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hmmmm, a battle of the global models once again. Euro with a KU storm next weekend, GFS weak and OTS, GGEM in the middle (sort of). Another pattern change on the way it appears which supports Tony's post re: Pacific zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hmmmm, a battle of the global models once again. Euro with a KU storm next weekend, GFS weak and OTS, GGEM in the middle (sort of). Another pattern change on the way it appears which supports Tony's post re: Pacific zonal flow. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hmmmm, a battle of the global models once again. Euro with a KU storm next weekend, GFS weak and OTS, GGEM in the middle (sort of). Another pattern change on the way it appears which supports Tony's post re: Pacific zonal flow. lolwut You haven't seen the last two runs of the Euro have you. The Thu-Fri system wouldn't qualify as KU-able and the weekend system is a total miss around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 What? He probably means if you live in the Atlantic ocean or if you only use the control run of the Euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 this is how rumors start. soon there will be an online news report of a massive blizzard coming next weekend, 30-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It was an old run, sorry for the confusion guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It was an old run, sorry for the confusion guys. An old run of the control EC, which is NOT the same as the EC Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 An old run of the control EC, which is NOT the same as the EC Op. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ok.. so whats next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ok.. so whats next? Well if you went by a handful of weenies in the NYC forum, it would be a great pattern for a KU storm next weekend.... In reality, get ready for some cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yo Pro's, Met's and experts. What are the chances that it doesn't rain late Thursday/Friday? My son wants to ski Friday on his day off. Thought about Thursday night as a backup in case rain holds off till early Friday. Going off the GFS alone it still looks like rain later Thursday into Friday am . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I like Iceman's 15 to be perfectly honest and like the others this past winter right or wrong I'll post the final answer on Monday or Tuesday. Getting back to our part of the world, 4th straight run (and 3rd different state) that the Euro norluns on Saturday. NYC Verification, lowest temp sun/mon mornings was 20F, I was 5F too cold. I didn't give a Boston min temp outlook, but it looks like theirs was 16F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NYC Verification, lowest temp sun/mon mornings was 20F, I was 5F too cold. I didn't give a Boston min temp outlook, but it looks like theirs was 16F. 27 this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yo Pro's, Met's and experts. What are the chances that it doesn't rain late Thursday/Friday? My son wants to ski Friday on his day off. Thought about Thursday night as a backup in case rain holds off till early Friday. Going off the GFS alone it still looks like rain later Thursday into Friday am . Seems about right to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 27 this morning... At the time of the single digit posting (up from 0F), the Upton office had a low of 25F for Central Park this morning. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PFMOKX&e=201202081121 I read in that NYC thread that he was also chirping about taking the "point and clickers" to the woodshed again. Tom Coughlin said it best talk is cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I read in that NYC thread that he was also chirping about taking the "point and clickers" to the woodshed again. Tom Coughlin said it best talk is cheap. I've been enjoying bump trolling his tweets this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I've been enjoying bump trolling his tweets this morning At anyrate, getting back to the future, over the next two weeks, don't see anything terribly overt tempwise. It looks like the Canadian side is holding down the week2 temp anomalies on the NAEFS, but with the MJO rapidly exiting phase8 would think next week might verify warmer than progged once we get past PD weekend. You have become much better than me with the GWO, there is no asian mt, is the tropical torqueing enough to maybe give us another cold shot (or is that this weekend's?)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At anyrate, getting back to the future, over the next two weeks, don't see anything terribly overt tempwise. It looks like the Canadian side is holding down the week2 temp anomalies on the NAEFS, but with the MJO rapidly exiting phase8 would think next week might verify warmer than progged once we get past PD weekend. You have become much better than me with the GWO, there is no asian mt, is the tropical torqueing enough to maybe give us another cold shot (or is that this weekend's?)? I think that is going to be this weekend's shortie. After that, we're into P2, which is warm east of the Appalachians in a Nina. Asian MT tanked last week, so we should get a strong +EPO response out of it, too. Then it's back to P4-5-6 for the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think that is going to be this weekend's shortie. After that, we're into P2, which is warm east of the Appalachians in a Nina. Asian MT tanked last week, so we should get a strong +EPO response out of it, too. Then it's back to P4-5-6 for the first half of March. so 90s for march then right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think that is going to be this weekend's shortie. After that, we're into P2, which is warm east of the Appalachians in a Nina. Asian MT tanked last week, so we should get a strong +EPO response out of it, too. Then it's back to P4-5-6 for the first half of March. 60's at least? or 1st sign's of hitting 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 60's at least? or 1st sign's of hitting 70? Probably not until March. These look like run of the mill +5-+10 anomalies. Nothing really to pump the SE ridge until we get back around to P4-5-6, which doesn't happen until Feb 27-Mar 2 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At the time of the single digit posting (up from 0F), the Upton office had a low of 25F for Central Park this morning. http://mesonet.agron...&e=201202081121 I read in that NYC thread that he was also chirping about taking the "point and clickers" to the woodshed again. Tom Coughlin said it best talk is cheap. We had some clouds move in around 10-1030pm and the temp went up from 26 to 28 between 10 and midnight, so 25 is not that far off. Upton 1 JB 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 so 90s for march then right sundress time fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 sundress time fellas. Tmi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 sundress time fellas. Is there something you want to share with us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Is there something you want to share with us? I like seeing women walking around in sundresses as opposed to bundled up to the extreme? Other than that, I'd have to question Allsnow's and your capacity to read for context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Tmi Good first effort, but next time go back and try to post something that is actually funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ahem, back on topic, Euro holds serve with a cold rain followed by a few days below normal this weekend. Adam, how much rain is depicted for Thursday/Fri system? Any flakes from it around Poconos or is it all liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Adam, how much rain is depicted for Thursday/Fri system? Any flakes from it around Poconos or is it all liquid? Looks like mostly liquid (.25-.5"), then gets cool to cold on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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